Coinbase的Geoffrey Kendrick警告说，基本网络活动正在影响以太坊ETH/USD价格动态

肯德里克（Kendrick）解释说，尽管基础上的较高活动最初会提高ETH需求（以ETH支付的交易费用），但基本产生的利润最终会转换为美元，并权衡ETH的价格。

Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick has warned that activity on Coinbase's (NASDAQ:COIN) Base network is impacting Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) price dynamics through indirect selling pressure.

Standard Charter的Geoffrey Kendrick警告说，Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）基础网络的活动正在影响以太坊（Crypto：ETH）的价格动态，这是通过间接销售压力的。

What Happened: Kendrick explained that while higher activity on Base boosts ETH demand initially—as transaction fees are paid in ETH—the profits generated by Base are ultimately converted to U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on ETH's price.

发生的事情：肯德里克（Kendrick）解释说，尽管基本上的较高活动最初是在ETH上提高ETH的需求（作为交易费用是在ETH中支付的），但基本产生的利润最终会转变为美元，对ETH的价格施加了向下压力。

According to Kendrick, Base, which has become the dominant Layer-2 on Ethereum, funnels about 80% of its revenue back to Coinbase. The exchange, in turn, does not hold onto Base's ETH profits for long.

根据肯德里克（Kendrick）的说法，Base已成为以太坊的主要第2层，其收入约为Coinbase的80％。反过来，交换不会长期持续到基本的ETH利润。

"Coinbase is not in the business of HODLing Base's ETH profits," Kendrick stated, highlighting data that shows the company actively selling ETH in the past three quarters, especially during periods when ETH prices were higher.

肯德里克说：“ Coinbase不从事Hodling Base的ETH利润业务。”强调数据表明，该公司在过去的四分之三季度中积极销售ETH，尤其是在ETH价格更高时期。

Coinbase's quarterly filings disclose how much ETH it holds, divided between operational needs and investment purposes. Since Ethereum's Dencun upgrade in 2024, Base's profits—paid in ETH—have likely been regularly sold off as Coinbase manages risk in response to market conditions.

Coinbase的季度文件揭示了其持有多少ETH，分配了运营需求和投资目的。由于以太坊在2024年的Dencun升级以来，Base的利润（以ETH为单位）可能会经常出售，因为Coinbase管理着对市场状况的风险。

Kendrick deduced that Coinbase sold 12,652 ETH in the final quarter of 2024, with net proactive selling of 1,558 ETH over the three previous quarters.

肯德里克（Kendrick）推论出，Coinbase在2024年的最后一个季度售出了12,652 ETH，在前三个季度中，净主动销售额为1,558 ETH。

Why It Matters: This analysis builds on an earlier Standard Chartered report, where Kendrick argued that Base's emergence has removed as much as $50 billion from Ethereum's market capitalization.

为什么它很重要：此分析是建立在较早的标准宪章报告的基础上，肯德里克认为，基地的出现已从以太坊的市值中消除了多达500亿美元。

"Base now extracts super-profits from the Ethereum ecosystem," Kendrick wrote in the prior note, where he also highlighted Ethereum's broader structural challenges.

肯德里克（Kendrick）在先前的注释中写道：“基地现在从以太坊生态系统中提取了超级营养。”他还强调了以太坊的更广泛的结构挑战。

He stated that Ethereum's transition to proof-of-stake and its Layer-2 scaling model—designed to reduce fees—have unintentionally shifted economic value away from Ethereum to its Layer-2s, primarily Base.

他说，以太坊向股份证明及其2层规模模型（设计以降低费用）的过渡已无意间将经济价值从以太坊转移到其2层，主要是基础。

The report also lowered Standard Chartered's ETH-USD price target to $4,000 by the end of 2025, compared to a previous projection of $10,000.

该报告还将标准Chartered的ETH-USD价格目标降低到2025年底的4,000美元，而先前的预测为10,000美元。

While Kendrick acknowledged that Ethereum still leads in areas like stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenization, he said the Ethereum Foundation may need to consider new economic models, such as taxing Layer-2 networks, to reverse the trend.

尽管肯德里克（Kendrick）承认，以太坊仍在Stablecoins，Defi和Sigkenization等领域领先，但他说，以太坊基金会可能需要考虑新的经济模式，例如征税2层网络，以扭转趋势。

Absent such measures, Kendrick expects ETH to continue underperforming relative to Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC). He projects ETH-BTC could fall to 0.015 by the end of 2027, marking its weakest level since early 2017.

缺乏此类措施，肯德里克（Kendrick）期望ETH相对于比特币（Crypto：BTC）继续表现不佳。他预测，到2027年底，ETH-BTC可能会降至0.015，这是其自2017年初以来最弱的水平。