彭博社分析师警告称，中国的加密货币打击行动不太可能推出 ETF

尽管香港最近批准了比特币和以太坊 ETF，但彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 认为，由于中国现有对加密货币相关活动的禁令，中国不太可能允许投资者交易这些 ETF。中国大陆关于 ETF 的不明确法律以及投资者对另类资产的兴趣引发了乐观情绪，认为该禁令可能不适用于 ETF，从而可能带来数十亿美元的投资。然而，Balchunas 仍然持怀疑态度，理由是香港 ETF 市场规模较小，而且没有获得贝莱德等知名公司的批准。

China's Crypto Crackdown: No Room for ETFs, Bloomberg Analyst Warns

彭博社分析师警告称，中国的加密货币打击行动没有ETF的空间

Despite cautious optimism that China's stringent crypto restrictions may exempt exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has issued a stern warning that such a scenario is highly improbable.

尽管人们对中国严格的加密货币限制可能会豁免交易所交易基金（ETF）持谨慎乐观态度，但彭博社高级 ETF 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 发出严厉警告，称这种情况极不可能发生。

The recent green light given to spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs in Hong Kong has ignited speculation that it could potentially circumvent China's blanket ban on digital asset trading within its borders.

最近香港对比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）ETF现货开放，引发了人们的猜测，认为这可能规避中国对其境内数字资产交易的全面禁令。

According to a Friday report by DL News, citing an interview with Alessio Quaglini, co-founder and chief executive of crypto custodian company Hex Trust, the introduction of these ETFs in Hong Kong could indirectly expose Chinese investors to the crypto market.

据 DL News 周五报道，援引加密托管公司 Hex Trust 联合创始人兼首席执行官 Alessio Quaglini 的采访称，在香港推出这些 ETF 可能会间接让中国投资者接触加密市场。

Unclear ETF Laws in China

中国ETF法律不明确

Quaglini points out that China's 2021 ban on all crypto-related activities, including trading, staking, and mining, does not specifically address ETFs. He suggests that the lack of clarity in the law could provide an avenue for Chinese investors to explore these new investment products.

Quaglini 指出，中国 2021 年禁止所有加密相关活动，包括交易、质押和挖矿，并没有专门针对 ETF。他认为，法律缺乏明确性可能为中国投资者探索这些新的投资产品提供途径。

He draws parallels with China's interest in alternative assets such as gold, indicating a potential appetite for crypto as well. Quaglini further posits that if China's restrictive stance on crypto does not extend to ETFs, it could attract billions of dollars in investment.

他将中国对黄金等替代资产的兴趣进行了类比，表明中国也对加密货币有潜在的兴趣。 Quaglini 进一步认为，如果中国对加密货币的限制立场不延伸到 ETF，它可能会吸引数十亿美元的投资。

Bloomberg Analyst Casts Doubt

彭博社分析师表示怀疑

However, Balchunas has swiftly doused this optimism, unequivocally stating that it is highly unlikely China will allow investors to trade crypto ETFs.

然而，Balchunas 很快就浇灭了这种乐观情绪，明确表示中国不太可能允许投资者交易加密 ETF。

"Agree.. if Chinese investors start buying and the govt doesn't crack down that could change things but as far as we know the govt ban on bitcoin will incl the ETFs and they DEF won't be on the southbound connect program," Balchunas tweeted.

“同意……如果中国投资者开始购买而政府不严厉打击，情况可能会改变，但据我们所知，政府对比特币的禁令将包括 ETF，而且他们 DEF 不会参与南向连接计划，”巴尔丘纳斯发推文。

He cautions investors against expecting a surge of capital inflows into the newly approved ETFs, highlighting the relatively small size of Hong Kong's ETF market. Balchunas predicts that inflows are unlikely to exceed $500 million.

他警告投资者不要期望资本大量流入新批准的ETF，这突显了香港ETF市场规模相对较小。 Balchunas 预测资金流入不太可能超过 5 亿美元。

"Don’t expect a lot of flows (I saw one estimate of $25b that’s insane). We think they’ll be lucky to get $500m. Here’s why: 1. The HK ETF market is tiny, only $50b, and Chinese locals cannot buy these, at least officially," he tweeted.

“不要指望会有大量资金流入（我看到有人估计 25 亿美元，这太疯狂了）。我们认为他们能幸运地获得 5 亿美元。原因如下： 1. 香港 ETF 市场规模很小，只有 50 亿美元，而且中国当地人不能购买这些，至少在官方上是这样，”他发推文说。

Moreover, Balchunas points out that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has yet to approve an ETF from a major player like BlackRock, which could further hamper the anticipated inflow.

此外，Balchunas 指出，香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 (SFC) 尚未批准贝莱德等主要参与者的 ETF，这可能会进一步阻碍预期的资金流入。

Chinese Investors' Crypto Workaround

中国投资者的加密货币解决方案

Despite the ban, China remains a crypto market force, albeit through unconventional means. China once hosted a thriving crypto market and was a magnet for miners due to its low electricity costs. However, the crackdown forced companies to relocate to neighboring countries and even the United States.

尽管有禁令，中国仍然是加密货币市场的一股力量，尽管是通过非常规手段。中国曾经拥有繁荣的加密货币市场，并且由于其低廉的电力成本而吸引了矿工。然而，镇压迫使企业迁往邻国，甚至美国。

Undeterred, Chinese investors have found ways to access the crypto economy. According to a report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, crypto transactions originating from China reached a staggering $86.4 billion between July 2022 and June 2023.

中国投资者并未被吓倒，他们已经找到了进入加密经济的方法。根据区块链分析公司 Chainaanalysis 的一份报告，2022 年 7 月至 2023 年 6 月期间，来自中国的加密货币交易达到惊人的 864 亿美元。

While ETFs in Hong Kong may offer a glimmer of hope, it remains clear that China's crypto restrictions are far from over. The government's stance on ETFs remains uncertain, and investors should proceed with caution.

尽管香港的 ETF 可能带来一线希望，但很明显，中国的加密货币限制还远未结束。政府对ETF的立场仍不确定，投资者应谨慎行事。