彭博分析師警告稱，中國的加密貨幣打擊行動不太可能推出 ETF

儘管香港最近批准了比特幣和以太坊 ETF，但彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 認為，由於中國現有對加密貨幣相關活動的禁令，中國不太可能允許投資者交易這些 ETF。中國大陸關於 ETF 的不明確法律以及投資者對另類資產的興趣引發了樂觀情緒，認為該禁令可能不適用於 ETF，從而可能帶來數十億美元的投資。然而，Balchunas 仍然持懷疑態度，理由是香港 ETF 市場規模較小，而且沒有獲得貝萊德等知名公司的批准。

China's Crypto Crackdown: No Room for ETFs, Bloomberg Analyst Warns

彭博分析師警告稱，中國的加密貨幣打擊行動沒有ETF的空間

Despite cautious optimism that China's stringent crypto restrictions may exempt exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has issued a stern warning that such a scenario is highly improbable.

儘管人們對中國嚴格的加密貨幣限制可能會豁免交易所交易基金（ETF）持謹慎樂觀態度，但彭博社高級ETF 分析師埃里克·巴爾丘納斯(Eric Balchunas) 發出嚴厲警告，稱這種情況極不可能發生。

The recent green light given to spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs in Hong Kong has ignited speculation that it could potentially circumvent China's blanket ban on digital asset trading within its borders.

最近香港對比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）ETF現貨開放，引發了人們的猜測，認為這可能規避中國對其境內數位資產交易的全面禁令。

According to a Friday report by DL News, citing an interview with Alessio Quaglini, co-founder and chief executive of crypto custodian company Hex Trust, the introduction of these ETFs in Hong Kong could indirectly expose Chinese investors to the crypto market.

根據 DL News 週五報道，引述加密託管公司 Hex Trust 聯合創始人兼執行長 Alessio Quaglini 的採訪稱，在香港推出這些 ETF 可能會間接讓中國投資者接觸加密市場。

Unclear ETF Laws in China

中國ETF法律不明確

Quaglini points out that China's 2021 ban on all crypto-related activities, including trading, staking, and mining, does not specifically address ETFs. He suggests that the lack of clarity in the law could provide an avenue for Chinese investors to explore these new investment products.

Quaglini 指出，中國 2021 年禁止所有加密相關活動，包括交易、質押和挖礦，並沒有專門針對 ETF。他認為，法律缺乏明確性可能為中國投資者探索這些新的投資產品提供途徑。

He draws parallels with China's interest in alternative assets such as gold, indicating a potential appetite for crypto as well. Quaglini further posits that if China's restrictive stance on crypto does not extend to ETFs, it could attract billions of dollars in investment.

他將中國對黃金等替代資產的興趣進行了類比，顯示中國也對加密貨幣有潛在的興趣。 Quaglini 進一步認為，如果中國對加密貨幣的限制立場不延伸到 ETF，它可能會吸引數十億美元的投資。

Bloomberg Analyst Casts Doubt

彭博分析師表示懷疑

However, Balchunas has swiftly doused this optimism, unequivocally stating that it is highly unlikely China will allow investors to trade crypto ETFs.

然而，Balchunas 很快就澆熄了這種樂觀情緒，明確表示中國不太可能允許投資者交易加密 ETF。

"Agree.. if Chinese investors start buying and the govt doesn't crack down that could change things but as far as we know the govt ban on bitcoin will incl the ETFs and they DEF won't be on the southbound connect program," Balchunas tweeted.

「同意……如果中國投資者開始購買而政府不嚴厲打擊，情況可能會改變，但據我們所知，政府對比特幣的禁令將包括 ETF，而且他們 DEF 不會參與南向連接計劃，」巴爾丘納斯發推文。

He cautions investors against expecting a surge of capital inflows into the newly approved ETFs, highlighting the relatively small size of Hong Kong's ETF market. Balchunas predicts that inflows are unlikely to exceed $500 million.

他警告投資者不要期望資本大量流入新批准的ETF，這突顯了香港ETF市場規模相對較小。 Balchunas 預測資金流入不太可能超過 5 億美元。

"Don’t expect a lot of flows (I saw one estimate of $25b that’s insane). We think they’ll be lucky to get $500m. Here’s why: 1. The HK ETF market is tiny, only $50b, and Chinese locals cannot buy these, at least officially," he tweeted.

「不要指望會有大量資金流入（我看到有人估計25 億美元，這太瘋狂了）。我們認為他們能幸運地獲得5 億美元。原因如下： 1. 香港ETF 市場規模很小，只有50 億美元，而且中國當地人不能購買這些，至少在官方上是這樣，」他發推文說。

Moreover, Balchunas points out that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has yet to approve an ETF from a major player like BlackRock, which could further hamper the anticipated inflow.

此外，Balchunas 指出，香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會 (SFC) 尚未批准貝萊德等主要參與者的 ETF，這可能會進一步阻礙預期的資金流入。

Chinese Investors' Crypto Workaround

中國投資者的加密貨幣解決方案

Despite the ban, China remains a crypto market force, albeit through unconventional means. China once hosted a thriving crypto market and was a magnet for miners due to its low electricity costs. However, the crackdown forced companies to relocate to neighboring countries and even the United States.

儘管有禁令，中國仍然是加密貨幣市場的一股力量，儘管是透過非常規手段。中國曾經擁有繁榮的加密貨幣市場，並且由於其低廉的電力成本而吸引了礦工。然而，鎮壓法律使企業遷往鄰國，甚至美國。

Undeterred, Chinese investors have found ways to access the crypto economy. According to a report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, crypto transactions originating from China reached a staggering $86.4 billion between July 2022 and June 2023.

中國投資者並未被嚇倒，他們已經找到了進入加密經濟的方法。根據區塊鏈分析公司 Chainaanalysis 的報告，2022 年 7 月至 2023 年 6 月期間，來自中國的加密貨幣交易達到驚人的 864 億美元。

While ETFs in Hong Kong may offer a glimmer of hope, it remains clear that China's crypto restrictions are far from over. The government's stance on ETFs remains uncertain, and investors should proceed with caution.

儘管香港的 ETF 可能帶來一線希望，但很明顯，中國的加密貨幣限制還遠遠沒有結束。政府對ETF的立場仍不確定，投資者應謹慎行事。