加元因经济困境和降息押注而下滑

周五加元兑美元贬值，周跌幅扩大0.5%。 1 月份零售额下降 0.3%，表明经济可能放缓。由于通胀放缓以及其他央行的鸽派立场，加拿大央行正在考虑 6 月份降息。瑞士意外降息后，美元兑其他主要货币走强，而加拿大债券收益率跟随美国国债的走势下降。

Canadian Dollar Declines Amidst Economic Slowdown and Rate Cut Anticipation

经济放缓和降息预期加元下跌

Toronto, Canada - The Canadian dollar experienced a decline against the strengthening U.S. counterpart on Friday, culminating in a weekly loss of 0.5%. This depreciation aligns with recent evidence of an economic slowdown in Canada, further fueling expectations of interest rate cuts.

加拿大多伦多 - 加元兑美元汇率周五下跌，最终每周下跌 0.5%。这种贬值与最近加拿大经济放缓的证据相一致，进一步加剧了降息的预期。

The Canadian currency, commonly known as the "loonie," dropped by 0.6% to trade at 1.3605 against the U.S. dollar, hovering near its three-month low of 1.3613 reached earlier in the week.

加元（俗称“加元”）兑美元汇率下跌0.6%，至1.3605，徘徊在本周早些时候触及的三个月低点1.3613附近。

According to Statistics Canada, retail sales in Canada decreased by 0.3% in January compared to December, despite a 0.2% increase in sales volume. A preliminary estimate suggests a modest 0.1% uptick in February.

根据加拿大统计局的数据，加拿大 1 月份零售额较 12 月份下降 0.3%，尽管销量增长 0.2%。初步估计显示 2 月份略有上升 0.1%。

"While today's retail sales report marginally exceeded expectations, it corroborates the ongoing weakening of domestic consumer demand, which has been hampering the Canadian economy's growth trajectory," stated Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay.

Corpay 首席市场策略师 Karl Schamotta 表示：“虽然今天的零售销售报告略超预期，但它证实了国内消费者需求的持续疲软，这一直阻碍着加拿大经济的增长轨迹。”

"The Bank of Canada (BoC) remains vigilant to the potential risks posed by a recurrence of last year's housing market surge, but it appears increasingly likely that rate cuts will be implemented at their June meeting," Schamotta added.

沙莫塔补充道：“加拿大央行（BoC）仍然对去年房地产市场再次飙升所带来的潜在风险保持警惕，但在六月会议上实施降息的可能性似乎越来越大。”

Money market participants have heightened their expectations for a BoC rate cut in June, with approximately 70% likelihood, following data released on Tuesday that indicated a cooling inflation rate to an annualized 2.8%.

周二公布的数据显示通胀率年化率降温至 2.8%，货币市场参与者提高了对加拿大央行 6 月份降息的预期，可能性约为 70%。

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continued its upward trend against a basket of major currencies for the second consecutive week. This appreciation stems from a contrast in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, exemplified by a surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank.

与此同时，美元兑一篮子主要货币连续第二周继续上涨。这种升值源于美联储与其他主要央行之间货币政策的对比，瑞士央行意外降息就是例证。

"Global central banks have adopted a predominantly dovish stance this week, while the Federal Reserve's economic projections suggest a more hawkish outlook for medium- to long-term interest rates," Schamotta noted.

沙莫塔指出：“全球央行本周采取了以鸽派为主的立场，而美联储的经济预测表明中长期利率前景更加鹰派。”

In response to the U.S. dollar's strength, Canadian bond yields declined across the yield curve, mirroring the movement in U.S. Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year Canadian government bond yield decreased by 7 basis points to 3.447%.

为应对美元走强，加拿大债券收益率在收益率曲线上下跌，反映了美国国债的走势。加拿大基准10年期政府债券收益率下降7个基点至3.447%。