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Decentral Park Capital 投资组合经理 Kelly Ye 和 CoinDesk Indices 产品主管 Andy Baehr,交易观点、主动型基金经理与指数基金,探讨美国大选后塑造资本市场和数字资产投资格局最重要的步骤世界。
Kelly Ye, portfolio manager at Decentral Park Capital, and Andy Baehr, head of product at CoinDesk Indices, trade views on what steps are most important to shape the capital markets and investment landscape for digital assets in a post U.S. election world.
Decentral Park Capital 投资组合经理 Kelly Ye 和 CoinDesk Indices 产品主管 Andy Baehr 就美国大选后世界中塑造资本市场和数字资产投资格局最重要的步骤交换了看法。
Election 2024 coverage presented by
2024 年选举报道由
Andy: Kelly, the US election has concluded and Trump is headed back to the White House, bolstered by a GOP-lead Senate. Bitcoin has already posted a new all-time high, but we know there is no magic wand to transform crypto into a fully-functioning asset class. How will we get there?
安迪:凯利,美国大选已经结束,特朗普将在共和党领导的参议院的支持下重返白宫。比特币已经创下了历史新高,但我们知道没有魔杖可以将加密货币转变为功能齐全的资产类别。我们将如何到达那里?
Kelly: Let’s think about three parts: 1) regulatory infrastructure that allows projects to exist and to raise capital; 2) investment infrastructure that connects investors to the capital markets; and 3) an investment framework for allocators, big and small.
凯利:让我们考虑三个部分:1)允许项目存在并筹集资金的监管基础设施; 2)连接投资者与资本市场的投资基础设施; 3)为大大小小的分配者提供投资框架。
Tesla Is Moving Bitcoin; Trump-Supported Token Falls Flat
特斯拉正在转移比特币;特朗普支持的代币表现平平
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Andy: Nicely framed. That’s a lot! Let’s hit topic 1 today: regulatory infrastructure. If crypto is meant to be decentralized, why is the U.S. so important?
安迪:构图很好。就这么多了!今天我们来讨论主题一:监管基础设施。如果加密货币意味着去中心化,为什么美国如此重要?
Kelly: Though crypto is inherently decentralized, with users and investors worldwide, the U.S. remains crucial due to its concentration of capital and favorable business environment. Globally, investors recognize the U.S. as a hub for technology and innovation. A supportive administration can further enhance this landscape, benefiting the industry. In the long term, as blockchain fosters decentralized trust and governance, societies may organize less by nation and more by shared interests, transcending traditional boundaries.
Kelly:虽然加密货币本质上是去中心化的,用户和投资者遍布全球,但由于资本集中和良好的商业环境,美国仍然至关重要。在全球范围内,投资者认识到美国是技术和创新的中心。政府的支持可以进一步改善这一格局,使整个行业受益。从长远来看,随着区块链促进去中心化的信任和治理,社会可能会更少地按国家组织,而更多地按共同利益组织,从而超越传统界限。
Andy: From the capital markets side — new projects needing access to investor capital — I agree; it’s hard to build without participation from U.S. lenders and investors. However, for the global markets side — trading, derivatives, services to hedge funds — I think global crypto is doing pretty well, given the obvious constraints. Financial engineering in cities like London, Zurich, Singapore and Hong Kong, with deep talent pools and a history of innovation, is doing well. The U.S. did (impressively, in hindsight) launch futures contracts on bitcoin and ether, a few ETFs and ETF options (soon), but for depth, breadth and innovation, you have to get on an airplane.
安迪:从资本市场方面来看——新项目需要获得投资者资本——我同意;如果没有美国贷款人和投资者的参与,就很难建设。然而,对于全球市场方面——交易、衍生品、对冲基金服务——我认为考虑到明显的限制,全球加密货币表现得相当不错。伦敦、苏黎世、新加坡和香港等城市的金融工程领域拥有深厚的人才库和创新历史,发展势头良好。美国确实(令人印象深刻的是,事后看来)推出了比特币和以太坊期货合约、一些 ETF 和 ETF 期权(很快),但要想获得深度、广度和创新,你必须乘坐飞机。
Kelly: A primary barrier is the lack of regulatory clarity regarding whether digital assets qualify as securities or commodities. Currently, only bitcoin has a clear classification, while other tokens risk being labeled as unregistered securities. The SEC’s "regulation by enforcement" approach is unsustainable and may deter innovation within the U.S. This also has downstream implications for capital markets, as crypto-focused exchanges and custodians face the risk of offering unregistered securities under SEC guidance.
凯利:主要障碍是对于数字资产是否符合证券或商品的资格缺乏明确的监管。目前,只有比特币有明确的分类,而其他代币则有被标记为未注册证券的风险。 SEC 的“执法监管”方法是不可持续的,可能会阻碍美国境内的创新。这也对资本市场产生下游影响,因为以加密货币为重点的交易所和托管人面临着在 SEC 指导下提供未注册证券的风险。
Andy: Indeed. As you have heard me rant about more than once, the regulatory “jump ball” between the CFTC and SEC is an impediment and a nuisance. This was true with basket swaps when Dodd Frank went into effect 12 years ago and it’s true now with crypto. I think about how the SFC in Hong Kong was out ahead creating regulatory structure around “virtual assets,” acknowledging their special properties and users. Now VARA in Dubai and, of course, MiCA in Europe are following suit in their own way. Much of this regulatory architecture is designed around existing assets and exchanges. You bring up an important point: new blockchain-based projects also deserve a clear path for financing and launch.
安迪:确实如此。正如您不止一次听到我抱怨的那样,CFTC 和 SEC 之间的监管“跳球”是一个障碍和麻烦。 12 年前多德·弗兰克法案生效时,篮子掉期就是如此,现在的加密货币也是如此。我想到香港证监会如何率先围绕“虚拟资产”建立监管结构,承认其特殊属性和用户。现在迪拜的 VARA,当然还有欧洲的 MiCA 也在以自己的方式效仿。这种监管架构大部分是围绕现有资产和交易所设计的。您提出了一个重要的观点:基于区块链的新项目也应该有明确的融资和启动路径。
Kelly: How would you expect indices to be treated in a best-case scenario?
凯利:您预计在最好的情况下会如何对待指数?
Andy: If the ultimate regulatory goal is investor protection, indices offer not only diversification of returns, but also of risk. If one index constituent fails, the index will replace it and survive. Not to say this removes risk, but non-systemic failures are not catastrophic. We think this provides a handy solution to regulators for index derivatives and index-based U.S. ETFs: if an index is demonstrably broad-based, it may not be necessary to make specific regulatory determinations about each and every constituent. If regulators insist on asset-by-asset regulation, users become concentrated into a small number of assets, even if those tend to be the largest, like bitcoin and ether.
Andy:如果监管的最终目标是保护投资者,那么指数不仅提供回报多元化,还提供风险多元化。如果一个指数成分股失败,该指数将取代它并继续存在。并不是说这消除了风险,但非系统性故障并不是灾难性的。我们认为这为指数衍生品和基于指数的美国 ETF 的监管机构提供了一个方便的解决方案:如果一个指数明显具有广泛基础,则可能没有必要对每个成分做出具体的监管决定。如果监管机构坚持对资产进行监管,用户就会集中于少数资产,即使这些资产往往是最大的,例如比特币和以太币。
So, we know what’s on our wish lists, but I guess we should end on an upbeat note. We are impatient, perhaps even frustrated, but also hopeful that the new administration can implement more crypto friendly policies, right, Kelly?
所以,我们知道我们的愿望清单上有什么,但我想我们应该以乐观的态度结束。我们很不耐烦,甚至可能感到沮丧,但也希望新政府能够实施更加加密货币友好的政策,对吧,凯利?
Kelly: Timing is critical, as other countries are competing to create a more favorable environment for blockchain technology builders. We are seeing significant developments with bitcoin, ETH ETFs and the CoinDesk 20 index, which offers investors broad-based exposure to the crypto market. However, to fully capture the growth potential of blockchain technology and its applications, active management expertise is essential
Kelly:时机至关重要,因为其他国家正在竞相为区块链技术建设者创造更有利的环境。我们看到比特币、ETH ETF 和 CoinDesk 20 指数取得了重大进展,该指数为投资者提供了广泛的加密市场投资机会。然而,要充分抓住区块链技术及其应用的增长潜力,积极的管理专业知识至关重要
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