我们是否处于另一个2008年风格的金融崩溃的边缘？

在全球范围内，投资者和专家们都在问同样的问题：我们是否处于另一个2008年风格的金融崩溃的边缘？

Across the world, investors and pundits are asking the same question: Are we on the brink of another 2008-style financial crash?

在全球范围内，投资者和专家们都在问同样的问题：我们是否处于另一个2008年风格的金融崩溃的边缘？

One need only look at the S&P 500, the prices of stocks in top companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), or the digital currency markets to see what’s happening: a mass-scale selloff in risk assets and a rush for the exits. With United States President Donald Trump launching a diplomatic blitzkrieg in the two short months since he took power, uncertainty looms large, and fear is beginning to take hold.

一个人只需要查看标准普尔500指数，NVIDIA（NASDAQ：NVDA）和TESLA（NASDAQ：TSLA）等顶级公司的股票价格，或者是数字货币市场，以了解正在发生的事情：质量规模的抛售在风险资产中的抛售和急速的冲动。随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在他掌权以来的两个月内发起了外交闪电战，不确定性隐约可见，而恐惧开始逐渐消失。

With the U.S.-China trade war heating up, tariffs on trading partners, and a clear realignment of the U.S. politically, institutions and other investors are moving into cash and safe assets until the dust settles. The global economy appears to be reaching a tipping point reminiscent of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

随着美国 - 中国贸易战的加热，对贸易伙伴的关税以及对美国政治上的明确重新调整，机构和其他投资者正在转移现金和安全资产，直到尘埃落定为止。全球经济似乎正达到一个转折点，让人联想到2008年全球金融危机。

What’s spooking the markets?

什么是在市场上吓到市场？

In one word: uncertainty. While great investors like Warren Buffet have said it could be the friend of the buyer of long-term value, markets don’t like it in the short term, and there hasn’t been this much uncertainty in such a short period since the COVID-19 pandemic shook the world.

用一个词：不确定性。尽管像沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffet）这样的伟大投资者表示，这可能是长期价值买家的朋友，但在短期内，市场并不喜欢它，而且自Covid-19大流行以来，在这么短的时间内并没有太多的不确定性震撼了世界。

A few factors contribute to that uncertainty: geopolitical shifts, trade wars, and a general risk-off mentality are the main three.

一些因素导致了这种不确定性：地缘政治转变，贸易战和一般的冒险心态是主要三个。

Geopolitical Shifts – For the first time in history, the U.S. voted with Russia, North Korea, and Sudan in the United Nations. If there was an illusion that American priorities weren’t changing, that pretty much shattered it.

地缘政治转变 - 历史上的第一次，美国在联合国与俄罗斯，朝鲜和苏丹进行了投票。如果存在一种美国优先事项没有改变的幻想，那几乎会破坏它。

When the largest economy in the world completely changes geopolitical direction overnight, it naturally creates some jitters. Nobody knows how America will go or what it means for the global economy, so risk-off is the answer until things become clear.

当世界上最大的经济体一夜之间完全改变地缘政治方向时，它自然会引起一些烦恼。没有人知道美国将如何发展或对全球经济意味着什么，因此，在事情变得清晰之前，有风险是答案。

Trade Wars and Tariffs – The geopolitical shifts are tied in some degree to the Trump government’s trade tariffs and the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China.

贸易战和关税 - 地缘政治转变在某种程度上与特朗普政府的贸易关税以及美国与中国之间的贸易战不断升级。

I wrote previously about how Japan signed the Plaza Accord and killed off its manufacturing competitiveness at Uncle Sam’s request, but China likely won’t do that, so an escalating trade war is the only foreseeable outcome.

我以前写过关于日本如何签署广场协议并应山姆大叔的要求杀死其制造竞争力的文章，但中国可能不会这样做，因此，贸易战不断升级是唯一可预见的结果。

Trade wars create a lot of uncertainty, but trade tariffs can be just as destructive. Twenty-five percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico effectively lay waste to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), making the goods coming from those countries more expensive.

贸易战造成了很多不确定性，但贸易关税可能同样具有破坏性。对加拿大和墨西哥的25％的关税有效地浪费了美国 - 墨西哥协议（USMCA），这使得来自这些国家的商品更加昂贵。

There’s no telling whether the long-term impacts will be as desired (manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.), but they’ll hit American consumers in their pockets in the short term. Since the U.S. is the largest consumer market in the world, any slowdown in purchasing power will be felt worldwide.

没有说明长期影响是否会尽可能（返回美国的制造业），但是他们将在短期内打动美国消费者的袋装。由于美国是世界上最大的消费市场，因此在世界范围内，购买力的任何放缓都将在全球范围内感受到。

Risk-off Attitudes – While the two previous points play into the risk-off narrative taking hold on Wall Street and elsewhere, there’s a general reassessment of stocks independent of outside factors.

冒险态度 - 虽然前两个要点涉及华尔街和其他地方的风险叙事，但对股票的一般重新评估与外部因素无关。

Companies like Tesla, Nvidia, and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) traded at absurd valuations in Q4 of 2024, and it’s only natural that big investors would eventually take a step back and reevaluate. Interestingly, while gold and silver are seeing an uptick, BTC is not. So much for the safe-haven asset and digital gold narratives!

特斯拉，NVIDIA和PALANTIR（NASDAQ：PLTR）等公司在2024年第四季度以荒谬的估值交易，最自然的是，大投资者最终会退后一步并重新评估。有趣的是，尽管黄金和白银正在看到上升，但BTC却没有。对于避风港资产和数字黄金叙事而言，这么多！

All three of these factors, as well as others, are contributing to the current selloff. But are we at a tipping point that could take things from selloff to crisis? Let’s look back at the last one.

这三个因素以及其他因素都在为当前的抛售做出贡献。但是，我们是否处在一个可以从抛售到危机的转折点？让我们回顾一下最后一个。

A look back at the 2008 financial crisis

回顾2008年的金融危机

In March 2008, Bear Stearns collapsed. The U.S. government arranged a bailout, and JP Morgan (NASDAQ:JPM) stepped in to buy its shares for $2 a piece, down from $170 the previous summer.

2008年3月，贝尔·斯滕斯（Bear Stearns）崩溃了。美国政府安排了救助，JP Morgan（NASDAQ：JPM）介入以每件$ 2美元的价格购买其股票，低于去年夏天的170美元。

It wasn’t enough to stop the panic. In September 2008, the U.S. government took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Shortly thereafter, Lehman Brothers collapsed (NASDAQ:LEHLQ), wiping out $600 billion in assets and triggering a full-blown panic. In mid-September, American International Group (NASDAQ:AIG), a global insurance and financial services firm, received an $85 billion bailout to stave off collapse. While it survived, the economic landscape was destroyed.

停止恐慌是不够的。 2008年9月，美国政府接管了抵押巨人Fannie Mae和Freddie Mac。此后不久，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒闭了（纳斯达克股票代码：Lehlq），消耗了6000亿美元的资产，引发了全面的恐慌。 9月中旬，全球保险和金融服务公司美国国际集团（NASDAQ：AIG）获得了850亿美元的救助，以避免倒闭。当它幸存下来时，经济格局被破坏了。

Despite a $700 billion bailout early in 2009 (TARP) and the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates to zero, U.S. unemployment hit 10%, millions of families lost their homes, and protests erupted across the globe from New York to London to Tokyo, Sydney, and beyond.

尽管2009年初进行了7000亿美元的救助（TARP）和美联储将利率降低到零，但美国失业率达到了10％，数以百万计的家庭失去了家园，并从纽约到伦敦到东京，悉尼及以后的全球爆发了抗议活动。

At the heart of this entire fiasco was one thing: lack of transparency.

整个惨败的核心是一回事：缺乏透明度。