Bitwise 欧洲研究主管在上周下跌 8% 后对比特币 (BTC) 持谨慎态度

Bitwise 的欧洲研究主管几个月来一直准确看好比特币 (BTC)，但在上周下跌 8% 后变得谨慎起来

Bitcoin (BTC) fell sharply last week, and the leading cryptocurrency may face further losses in the coming period, a Bitwise executive warned on Monday.

Bitwise 高管周一警告称，比特币（BTC）上周大幅下跌，这种领先的加密货币可能在未来一段时间内面临进一步损失。

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, fell 8.8% to nearly $95,000 last week, the biggest percentage drop since August, according to data source TradingView and CoinDesk Indices. The losses came as the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate cuts for next year while stressing that it prohibited from holding BTC and doesn't seek a change in the law to do so.

根据数据源 TradingView 和 CoinDesk Indices 的数据，按市值计算的领先加密货币比特币上周下跌 8.8%，至近 95,000 美元，创 8 月以来最大跌幅。损失发生之际，美联储暗示明年降息幅度较小，同时强调禁止持有比特币，并且不会寻求修改法律来这样做。

The so-called hawkish rate projections also roiled sentiment in traditional markets, leading to a 2% drop in the S&P 500 and a 0.8% gain in the dollar index, lifting it to the highest since October 2022. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, the so-called risk-free rate, rose 14 basis points, breaking out bullishly from a technical pattern.

所谓的鹰派利率预测也扰乱了传统市场的情绪，导致标准普尔500指数下跌2%，美元指数上涨0.8%，升至2022年10月以来的最高水平。10年期国债收益率美国国债，即所谓的无风险利率，上涨14个基点，从技术形态上突破看涨。

The risk-off mood may persist for some time, according to Andre Dragosch, director and head of research Europe at Bitwise.

Bitwise 欧洲研究总监兼主管 Andre Dragosch 表示，避险情绪可能会持续一段时间。

"The big macro picture is that the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place as financial conditions have continued to tighten despite 3 consecutive rate cuts since September. Meanwhile, real-time measures of consumer price inflation have re-accelerated over the past months to new highs as well judging by truflation’s indicator for U.S. inflation," Dragosch told CoinDesk.

“总体宏观形势是，尽管自9月份以来连续3次降息，但由于金融状况持续收紧，美联储陷入进退两难的境地。与此同时，消费者价格通胀的实时指标在过去再次加速几个月来创出新高，并且从美国通胀的通膨指标来看，”Dragosch 告诉 CoinDesk。

Dragosch is one of the few observers who correctly predicted a massive BTC price rally in late July when the sentiment was hardly bullish. BTC put in lows near $50,000 around that time and recently topped $100,000 for the first time on record.

Dragosch 是少数几个正确预测 7 月底 BTC 价格大幅上涨的观察者之一，当时市场情绪并不乐观。 BTC 在那段时间跌至接近 50,000 美元的低点，最近有记录以来首次突破 100,000 美元。

"So, it’s quite likely that we will see more pain in the coming period, but this could be an interesting buying opportunity given the ongoing tailwinds provided by the BTC supply deficit," Dragosch added.

Dragosch 补充道：“因此，我们很可能会在未来一段时间看到更多的痛苦，但考虑到 BTC 供应短缺带来的持续不利影响，这可能是一个有趣的买入机会。”

The hardening of the Treasury yields, representing higher borrowing costs and relative attractiveness of fixed-income investments, typically leads to outflows from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks. A stronger dollar also makes USD-based assets expensive, discouraging capital inflows.

美国国债收益率的走强代表着更高的借贷成本和固定收益投资的相对吸引力，通常会导致加密货币和股票等风险较高的资产流出。美元走强也使得美元资产变得昂贵，抑制了资本流入。

"If you've been following financial markets for a while, you've likely encountered discussions that price pressures in the U.S. economy are on the same inflation rollercoaster ride as the 1970s. Back then, the second wave was more intense than the first."

“如果你关注金融市场一段时间，你可能会遇到过这样的讨论：美国经济的价格压力正像 20 世纪 70 年代那样经历通胀过山车。当时，第二波浪潮比第一波更为强烈。 ”

Dragosch notes that the sticky CPI inflation readings in recent months have raised concerns at the Fed about a potential second wave, leading to a more cautious stance on rate cuts.

德拉戈施指出，近几个月来居高不下的消费者物价指数通胀数据引发了美联储对可能出现第二波浪潮的担忧，导致美联储对降息采取更加谨慎的立场。

The Fed is scared of this scenario which is why Powell will probably do too little/too late…Expect more pain over the coming weeks. pic.twitter.com/pi9dsMIUMU

美联储害怕这种情况，这就是为什么鲍威尔可能会做得太少/太晚……预计未来几周会出现更多痛苦。 pic.twitter.com/pi9dsMIUMU

"They are probably scared of the double hump scenario and a revival of the 70s twin peak in inflation which is why they are probably too reluctant to cut rates more aggressively," Dragosch said. "They risk a significant acceleration in inflation if they cut rates aggressively, if they do little, the economy may suffer."

“他们可能害怕双峰情景和70年代通胀双峰的复苏，这就是为什么他们可能不太愿意更积极地降息，”德拉戈施说。 “如果他们大幅降息，他们将面临通胀大幅加速的风险，如果他们不采取任何行动，经济可能会受到影响。”

Eventually, however, the financial tightening caused by rising yields and the dollar index would force the Fed to take action, Dragosch added, stressing BTC's supply scarcity as a major bullish factor over the long run.

然而，最终，收益率上升和美元指数上涨导致的金融紧缩将迫使美联储采取行动，德拉戈什补充道，并强调比特币的供应稀缺是长期的主要看涨因素。