Bitwise 歐洲研究主管在上週下跌 8% 後對比特幣 (BTC) 持謹慎態度

Bitwise 的歐洲研究主管幾個月來一直準確看好比特幣 (BTC)，但在上週下跌 8% 後變得謹慎起來

Bitcoin (BTC) fell sharply last week, and the leading cryptocurrency may face further losses in the coming period, a Bitwise executive warned on Monday.

Bitwise 高層週一警告稱，比特幣（BTC）上週大幅下跌，這種領先的加密貨幣可能在未來一段時間內面臨進一步損失。

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, fell 8.8% to nearly $95,000 last week, the biggest percentage drop since August, according to data source TradingView and CoinDesk Indices. The losses came as the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate cuts for next year while stressing that it prohibited from holding BTC and doesn't seek a change in the law to do so.

根據資料來源 TradingView 和 CoinDesk Indices 的數據，以市值計算的領先加密貨幣比特幣上週下跌 8.8%，至近 95,000 美元，創 8 月以來最大跌幅。損失發生之際，聯準會暗示明年降息幅度較小，同時強調禁止持有比特幣，不會尋求修改法律來這樣做。

The so-called hawkish rate projections also roiled sentiment in traditional markets, leading to a 2% drop in the S&P 500 and a 0.8% gain in the dollar index, lifting it to the highest since October 2022. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, the so-called risk-free rate, rose 14 basis points, breaking out bullishly from a technical pattern.

所謂的鷹派利率預測也擾亂了傳統市場的情緒，導致標準普爾500指數下跌2%，美元指數上漲0.8%，升至2022年10月以來的最高水準。所謂的無風險利率，上漲14個基點，從技術形態上突破看漲。

The risk-off mood may persist for some time, according to Andre Dragosch, director and head of research Europe at Bitwise.

Bitwise 歐洲研究總監兼主管 Andre Dragosch 表示，避險情緒可能會持續一段時間。

"The big macro picture is that the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place as financial conditions have continued to tighten despite 3 consecutive rate cuts since September. Meanwhile, real-time measures of consumer price inflation have re-accelerated over the past months to new highs as well judging by truflation’s indicator for U.S. inflation," Dragosch told CoinDesk.

「整體宏觀情勢是，儘管自9月以來連續3次降息，但由於金融狀況持續收緊，聯準會陷入進退兩難的境地。與此同時，消費者物價通膨的即時指標在過去再次加速幾個月來創出新高，並且從美國通膨的通膨指標來看，」Dragosch 告訴CoinDesk。

Dragosch is one of the few observers who correctly predicted a massive BTC price rally in late July when the sentiment was hardly bullish. BTC put in lows near $50,000 around that time and recently topped $100,000 for the first time on record.

Dragosch 是少數正確預測 7 月底 BTC 價格大幅上漲的觀察者之一，當時市場情緒並不樂觀。 BTC 在那段時間跌至接近 50,000 美元的低點，最近有記錄以來首次突破 100,000 美元。

"So, it’s quite likely that we will see more pain in the coming period, but this could be an interesting buying opportunity given the ongoing tailwinds provided by the BTC supply deficit," Dragosch added.

Dragosch 補充說：“因此，我們很可能會在未來一段時間看到更多的痛苦，但考慮到 BTC 供應短缺帶來的持續不利影響，這可能是一個有趣的買入機會。”

The hardening of the Treasury yields, representing higher borrowing costs and relative attractiveness of fixed-income investments, typically leads to outflows from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks. A stronger dollar also makes USD-based assets expensive, discouraging capital inflows.

美國國債殖利率的走強代表著更高的借貸成本和固定收益投資的相對吸引力，通常會導致加密貨幣和股票等風險較高的資產流出。美元走強也使得美元資產變得昂貴，抑制了資本流入。

"If you've been following financial markets for a while, you've likely encountered discussions that price pressures in the U.S. economy are on the same inflation rollercoaster ride as the 1970s. Back then, the second wave was more intense than the first."

「如果你關注金融市場一段時間，你可能會遇到過這樣的討論：美國經濟的價格壓力正像 20 世紀 70 年代那樣經歷通脹過山車。當時，第二波浪潮比第一波更為強烈。 ”

Dragosch notes that the sticky CPI inflation readings in recent months have raised concerns at the Fed about a potential second wave, leading to a more cautious stance on rate cuts.

德拉戈施指出，近幾個月來居高不下的消費者物價指數通膨數據引發了聯準會對可能出現第二波浪潮的擔憂，導緻聯準會對降息採取更加謹慎的立場。

The Fed is scared of this scenario which is why Powell will probably do too little/too late…Expect more pain over the coming weeks. pic.twitter.com/pi9dsMIUMU

聯準會害怕這種情況，這就是為什麼鮑威爾可能會做得太少/太晚……預計未來幾週會出現更多痛苦。 pic.twitter.com/pi9dsMIUMU

"They are probably scared of the double hump scenario and a revival of the 70s twin peak in inflation which is why they are probably too reluctant to cut rates more aggressively," Dragosch said. "They risk a significant acceleration in inflation if they cut rates aggressively, if they do little, the economy may suffer."

「他們可能害怕雙峰情景和70年代通膨雙峰的復甦，這就是為什麼他們可能不太願意更積極地降息，」德拉戈施說。 “如果他們大幅降息，他們將面臨通膨大幅加速的風險，如果他們不採取任何行動，經濟可能會受到影響。”

Eventually, however, the financial tightening caused by rising yields and the dollar index would force the Fed to take action, Dragosch added, stressing BTC's supply scarcity as a major bullish factor over the long run.

然而，最終，殖利率上升和美元指數上漲導致的金融緊縮將迫使聯準會採取行動，德拉戈什補充道，並強調比特幣的供應稀缺是長期的主要看漲因素。