比特币波动性大幅下降，表明其成熟和持续稳定

富达数字资产的报告强调了比特币波动性的下降，表明其成熟状态。该加密货币的年度波动性已创历史新低，与其他标准普尔 500 指数公司相比表现出稳定性，过去两年的波动性甚至超过了 Netflix。富达预计，随着比特币成为更成熟的资产类别，波动性将持续下降。

Bitcoin's Volatility Falls, Signaling Maturation and Continued Stability

比特币波动性下降，标志着成熟和持续稳定

May 2, 2024

2024 年 5 月 2 日

Amidst the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape, Bitcoin (BTC) has emerged as a beacon of remarkable stability, exhibiting a significant reduction in volatility that underscores its growing maturity as a digital asset class.

在不断发展的加密货币格局中，比特币（BTC）已成为非凡稳定性的灯塔，其波动性显着降低，突显其作为数字资产类别的日益成熟。

According to a comprehensive research report published by Fidelity Digital Assets on Wednesday, Bitcoin's volatility has plummeted to unprecedented lows on a yearly scale. This decline is a testament to the cryptocurrency's evolving nature, as it transitions from a speculative asset to a more stable and widely accepted form of value.

根据富达数字资产周三发布的综合研究报告，比特币的波动性已按年度规模骤降至前所未有的低点。这种下降证明了加密货币不断发展的性质，因为它从投机资产转变为更稳定且被广泛接受的价值形式。

Analyst Zack Wainwright, author of the report, draws parallels between Bitcoin and other emerging assets, noting that it's not uncommon for new asset classes to experience elevated volatility during their initial stages. Just as gold exhibited significant price fluctuations when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, Bitcoin has also undergone periods of volatility. However, the report argues that Bitcoin's volatility has been steadily trending downwards over its 15 years of existence, a trend that is expected to continue as the cryptocurrency matures.

该报告的作者、分析师扎克·温赖特 (Zack Wainwright) 将比特币与其他新兴资产进行了比较，指出新资产类别在初始阶段经历较高波动性的情况并不罕见。正如美国放弃金本位时黄金价格出现大幅波动一样，比特币也经历了波动时期。然而，该报告认为，比特币的波动性在其存在的 15 年中一直呈稳步下降趋势，随着加密货币的成熟，这一趋势预计将持续下去。

This downward trend is backed by empirical evidence. Fidelity's analysis reveals that Bitcoin is currently less volatile than 33 companies within the S&P 500 index. In October 2023, Bitcoin's volatility was lower than 92 of the stocks in the index, when measured using 90-day realized historical volatility figures.

这种下降趋势是有经验证据支持的。富达的分析显示，比特币目前的波动性低于标准普尔 500 指数中的 33 家公司。 2023 年 10 月，使用 90 天已实现历史波动率数据衡量时，比特币的波动率低于该指数中 92 只股票。

Furthermore, over the past two years, Bitcoin has exhibited lower volatility than Netflix (NFLX), a prominent entertainment stock. Even when compared to the "magnificent seven," a group of high-performing stocks, Bitcoin's volatility does not appear as an outlier.

此外，在过去两年中，比特币的波动性低于知名娱乐股 Netflix (NFLX)。即使与一组表现出色的“七大股票”相比，比特币的波动性也并不显得异常。

While emerging asset classes with small market capitalizations tend to be more susceptible to volatility due to the influence of new capital flows, Fidelity's report suggests that this effect diminishes as the asset class matures and its market cap expands. As capital inflows become less impactful relative to the larger capital base, volatility is expected to decline further.

尽管由于新资本流动的影响，市值较小的新兴资产类别往往更容易受到波动的影响，但富达的报告表明，随着资产类别的成熟和市值的扩大，这种影响会减弱。随着资本流入相对于较大资本基础的影响减弱，波动性预计将进一步下降。

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. in January 2023 was anticipated to dampen the cryptocurrency's volatility. Despite the subsequent inflows, Bitcoin experienced an over 16% decline in April 2024. However, the report emphasizes that new capital inflows will have a reduced impact on the market and marginal buyers or sellers, contributing to Bitcoin's overall stability.

美国于 2023 年 1 月批准现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF)，预计将抑制该加密货币的波动性。尽管随后出现资金流入，但比特币在 2024 年 4 月仍经历了超过 16% 的下跌。不过，报告强调，新的资本流入将对市场和边际买家或卖家的影响减少，从而有助于比特币的整体稳定。

The findings of Fidelity's research provide a compelling case for Bitcoin's maturation as a digital asset. Its declining volatility is a clear indication of its growing acceptance and stability within the financial landscape. As Bitcoin continues to evolve, it is expected to become even more integrated into global financial systems, further cementing its status as a reliable and valuable asset.

富达的研究结果为比特币作为数字资产的成熟提供了令人信服的案例。其波动性下降清楚地表明其在金融领域的接受度和稳定性不断提高。随着比特币的不断发展，预计它将更加融入全球金融体系，进一步巩固其作为可靠和有价值资产的地位。