比特幣波動性大幅下降，顯示其成熟和持續穩定

富達數位資產的報告強調了比特幣波動性的下降，顯示其成熟狀態。該加密貨幣的年度波動性已創歷史新低，與其他標準普爾 500 指數公司相比表現出穩定性，過去兩年的波動性甚至超過了 Netflix。富達預計，隨著比特幣成為更成熟的資產類別，波動性將持續下降。

Bitcoin's Volatility Falls, Signaling Maturation and Continued Stability

比特幣波動性下降，標誌著成熟和持續穩定

May 2, 2024

2024 年 5 月 2 日

Amidst the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape, Bitcoin (BTC) has emerged as a beacon of remarkable stability, exhibiting a significant reduction in volatility that underscores its growing maturity as a digital asset class.

在不斷發展的加密貨幣格局中，比特幣（BTC）已成為非凡穩定性的燈塔，其波動性顯著降低，突顯其作為數位資產類別的日益成熟。

According to a comprehensive research report published by Fidelity Digital Assets on Wednesday, Bitcoin's volatility has plummeted to unprecedented lows on a yearly scale. This decline is a testament to the cryptocurrency's evolving nature, as it transitions from a speculative asset to a more stable and widely accepted form of value.

根據富達數位資產週三發布的綜合研究報告，比特幣的波動性已驟降至前所未有的低點。這種下降證明了加密貨幣不斷發展的性質，因為它從投機資產轉變為更穩定且被廣泛接受的價值形式。

Analyst Zack Wainwright, author of the report, draws parallels between Bitcoin and other emerging assets, noting that it's not uncommon for new asset classes to experience elevated volatility during their initial stages. Just as gold exhibited significant price fluctuations when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, Bitcoin has also undergone periods of volatility. However, the report argues that Bitcoin's volatility has been steadily trending downwards over its 15 years of existence, a trend that is expected to continue as the cryptocurrency matures.

該報告的作者、分析師 Zack Wainwright 將比特幣與其他新興資產進行了比較，指出新資產類別在初始階段經歷較高波動性的情況並不罕見。正如美國放棄金本位時黃金價格大幅波動一樣，比特幣也經歷了波動時期。然而，該報告認為，比特幣的波動性在其存在的 15 年中一直呈穩步下降趨勢，隨著加密貨幣的成熟，這一趨勢預計將持續下去。

This downward trend is backed by empirical evidence. Fidelity's analysis reveals that Bitcoin is currently less volatile than 33 companies within the S&P 500 index. In October 2023, Bitcoin's volatility was lower than 92 of the stocks in the index, when measured using 90-day realized historical volatility figures.

這種下降趨勢是有經驗證據支持的。富達的分析顯示，比特幣目前的波動性低於標準普爾 500 指數中的 33 家公司。 2023 年 10 月，使用 90 天已實現歷史波動率數據衡量時，比特幣的波動率低於該指數中 92 隻股票。

Furthermore, over the past two years, Bitcoin has exhibited lower volatility than Netflix (NFLX), a prominent entertainment stock. Even when compared to the "magnificent seven," a group of high-performing stocks, Bitcoin's volatility does not appear as an outlier.

此外，在過去兩年中，比特幣的波動性低於知名娛樂股 Netflix (NFLX)。即使與一組表現出色的「七大股票」相比，比特幣的波動性並不顯得異常。

While emerging asset classes with small market capitalizations tend to be more susceptible to volatility due to the influence of new capital flows, Fidelity's report suggests that this effect diminishes as the asset class matures and its market cap expands. As capital inflows become less impactful relative to the larger capital base, volatility is expected to decline further.

儘管由於新資本流動的影響，市值較小的新興資產類別往往更容易受到波動的影響，但富達的報告表明，隨著資產類別的成熟和市值的擴大，這種影響會減弱。隨著資本流入相對於較大資本基礎的影響減弱，波動性預計將進一步下降。

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. in January 2023 was anticipated to dampen the cryptocurrency's volatility. Despite the subsequent inflows, Bitcoin experienced an over 16% decline in April 2024. However, the report emphasizes that new capital inflows will have a reduced impact on the market and marginal buyers or sellers, contributing to Bitcoin's overall stability.

美國於 2023 年 1 月批准現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF)，預計將抑制該加密貨幣的波動性。儘管隨後出現資金流入，但比特幣在2024 年4 月仍經歷了超過16% 的下跌。幣的整體穩定。

The findings of Fidelity's research provide a compelling case for Bitcoin's maturation as a digital asset. Its declining volatility is a clear indication of its growing acceptance and stability within the financial landscape. As Bitcoin continues to evolve, it is expected to become even more integrated into global financial systems, further cementing its status as a reliable and valuable asset.

富達的研究結果為比特幣作為數位資產的成熟提供了令人信服的案例。其波動性下降清楚地表明其在金融領域的接受度和穩定性不斷提高。隨著比特幣的不斷發展，預計它將更加融入全球金融體系，進一步鞏固其作為可靠和有價值資產的地位。