比特幣（BTC）必須捍衛此關鍵價格水平

比特幣（BTC）在過去一周中下跌了11.3％，目前在寫作時的交易價格低至80,000美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 11.3% over the past week, currently trading in the low $80,000 range at the time of writing. The recent decline has pushed the leading cryptocurrency below the 200-day moving average (MA), raising concerns about a potential deeper pullback.

比特幣（BTC）在過去一周中下跌了11.3％，目前在寫作時的交易價格低至80,000美元。最近的下降使領先的加密貨幣低於200天的移動平均水平（MA），這引起了人們對潛在更深層次回調的擔憂。

However, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a key price level that Bitcoin must defend to avoid further downward pressure.

但是，經驗豐富的加密分析師阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）已經確定了比特幣必須捍衛的關鍵價格水平，以避免進一步的向下壓力。

According to an X post by Martinez, BTC is now trading below the 200-day MA, a level that has historically functioned as strong support for the top digital asset.

根據馬丁內斯（Martinez）的X帖子，BTC現在的交易低於200天的MA，這一水平在歷史上一直是對頂級數字資產的大力支持。

The 200-day MA is a famous technical indicator that represents the average closing price of BTC over the last 200 days to identify the long-term price trend.

200天的MA是一個著名的技術指標，代表了過去200天BTC的平均收盤價，以確定長期價格趨勢。

A sustained move above the 200-day MA has led to long-term uptrends while a prolonged price movement below the level has often preceded further declines.

超過200天的MA的持續轉移導致了長期上升趨勢，而延長價格轉移的延長水平通常會進一步下降。

“#Bitcoin must stay above the TD Sequential indicator’s risk line at $79,280. A break above this level could pave the way for a strong rebound.”

“ #BitCoin必須以79,280美元的價格停留在TD順序指標的風險線上方。超過此水平的突破可以為強勁的反彈鋪平道路。”

As seen in the chart above, the TD Sequential indicator’s risk line provides a boundary for price fluctuations.

如上圖所示，TD順序指標的風險線為價格波動提供了邊界。

After setting a high at $109,688 last week, the indicator has now begun setting lower highs and higher lows, suggesting that the current downward trend might be coming to an end.

在上週將高價設定為109,688美元之後，該指標現在已經開始設置較低的高點和更高的低點，這表明當前的下降趨勢可能即將結束。

If the price drops below the risk line, it could indicate further weakness and a continuation of the downward trend. However, a sustained move above this level could set the stage for a strong rebound to the upside.

如果價格下降到風險線以下，則可能表明進一步的弱點和下降趨勢的延續。但是，持續的移動超過此水平可能會為上漲的強勁反彈奠定基礎。

Meanwhile, fellow crypto analyst Ted has highlighted the potential for a Bitcoin recovery. In a post on X, he observed that over the past two years, Bitcoin has typically undergone 25% to 30% corrections before rebounding to new all-time highs (ATHs).

同時，加密分析師TED強調了比特幣恢復的潛力。在X上的一篇文章中，他觀察到，在過去的兩年中，比特幣通常在反彈到新的歷史最高點（ATHS）之前經過了25％至30％的校正。

“In 2023, BTC went from $30K to $22K. In 2024, BTC went from $74K to $50K. This year, BTC has dumped from $109K to $79K. We all know what happened after the last 2 major corrections.”

“ 2023年，BTC從$ 30K上漲到22,000美元。 2024年，BTC從$ 74K上漲到$ 50K。今年，BTC已從$ 109K傾銷到$ 79,000。我們都知道最後兩個重大更正後發生了什麼。”

If Bitcoin follows a similar pattern and rises 30% from its current price, it could reach approximately $104,000 in a short period.

如果比特幣遵循類似的模式，並且比目前的價格上漲了30％，那麼在短時間內可能會達到約104,000美元。

However, broader macroeconomic factors, such as US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s trajectory.

但是，更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素，例如美國總統唐納德·特朗普的貿易關稅和美聯儲（美聯儲）貨幣政策，可能會嚴重影響比特幣的軌跡。

In another post on X, Martinez highlighted Bitcoin’s potential path to a new ATH, emphasizing that Bitcoin must first reclaim $84,000 as a support level before any major upside movement.

在X上的另一篇文章中，馬丁內斯強調了比特幣的潛在通往新ATH的途徑，強調比特幣必須首先在任何重大上行移動之前首先將84,000美元作為支持水平。

Once this milestone is secured, the digital asset could rally toward $128,000.

一旦確保了這個里程碑，數字資產就可以集結到128,000美元。

Several indicators suggest that Bitcoin may have already found a local bottom, increasing the chances of a trend reversal.

一些指標表明，比特幣可能已經找到了局部底部，從而增加了趨勢逆轉的機會。

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently noted that Bitcoin’s plunge to $78,258 could mark the cycle low.

加密分析師Rekt Capital最近指出，比特幣的暴跌至78,258美元可能標誌著周期的低點。

“Looks like #Bitcoin has finally reached the Fibonacci level that was meant to hold. At least according to the Count.

“看起來#bitcoin終於達到了要保持的斐波那契水平。至少根據計數。

Set in 3, 7, 11, 21 … the 89 Wave (purple) is meant to be a fib level that holds major trends. At least according to Elliott Wave Theory.”

設置在3、7、11、21…89波（紫色）的旨在是具有主要趨勢的FIB水平。至少根據Elliott Wave理論。”

Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has just recorded one of its largest weekly breakdowns since 2013, a move that historically signals bullish momentum for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

此外，美元指數（DXY）自2013年以來剛剛記錄了其每週最大的崩潰之一，這一舉動歷史上標誌著像比特幣這樣的風險資產的勢頭。

The DXY dropped by 1.9% over the past week, closing below the 100-week MA for the first time since November 2022.

在過去一周中，DXY下降了1.9％，自2022年11月以來首次關閉100週的MA。

This divergence from the 200-day MA, which usually leads to further declines, could be a key factor to watch.

通常會導致進一步下降的200天MA的差異可能是觀看的關鍵因素。