比特币（BTC）必须捍卫此关键价格水平

比特币（BTC）在过去一周中下跌了11.3％，目前在写作时的交易价格低至80,000美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 11.3% over the past week, currently trading in the low $80,000 range at the time of writing. The recent decline has pushed the leading cryptocurrency below the 200-day moving average (MA), raising concerns about a potential deeper pullback.

比特币（BTC）在过去一周中下跌了11.3％，目前在写作时的交易价格低至80,000美元。最近的下降使领先的加密货币低于200天的移动平均水平（MA），这引起了人们对潜在更深层次回调的担忧。

However, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a key price level that Bitcoin must defend to avoid further downward pressure.

但是，经验丰富的加密分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）已经确定了比特币必须捍卫的关键价格水平，以避免进一步的向下压力。

According to an X post by Martinez, BTC is now trading below the 200-day MA, a level that has historically functioned as strong support for the top digital asset.

根据马丁内斯（Martinez）的X帖子，BTC现在的交易低于200天的MA，这一水平在历史上一直是对顶级数字资产的大力支持。

The 200-day MA is a famous technical indicator that represents the average closing price of BTC over the last 200 days to identify the long-term price trend.

200天的MA是一个著名的技术指标，代表了过去200天BTC的平均收盘价，以确定长期价格趋势。

A sustained move above the 200-day MA has led to long-term uptrends while a prolonged price movement below the level has often preceded further declines.

超过200天的MA的持续转移导致了长期上升趋势，而延长价格转移的延长水平通常会进一步下降。

“#Bitcoin must stay above the TD Sequential indicator’s risk line at $79,280. A break above this level could pave the way for a strong rebound.”

“ #BitCoin必须以79,280美元的价格停留在TD顺序指标的风险线上方。超过此水平的突破可以为强劲的反弹铺平道路。”

As seen in the chart above, the TD Sequential indicator’s risk line provides a boundary for price fluctuations.

如上图所示，TD顺序指标的风险线为价格波动提供了边界。

After setting a high at $109,688 last week, the indicator has now begun setting lower highs and higher lows, suggesting that the current downward trend might be coming to an end.

在上周将高价设定为109,688美元之后，该指标现在已经开始设置较低的高点和更高的低点，这表明当前的下降趋势可能即将结束。

If the price drops below the risk line, it could indicate further weakness and a continuation of the downward trend. However, a sustained move above this level could set the stage for a strong rebound to the upside.

如果价格下降到风险线以下，则可能表明进一步的弱点和下降趋势的延续。但是，持续的移动超过此水平可能会为上涨的强劲反弹奠定基础。

Meanwhile, fellow crypto analyst Ted has highlighted the potential for a Bitcoin recovery. In a post on X, he observed that over the past two years, Bitcoin has typically undergone 25% to 30% corrections before rebounding to new all-time highs (ATHs).

同时，加密分析师TED强调了比特币恢复的潜力。在X上的一篇文章中，他观察到，在过去的两年中，比特币通常在反弹到新的历史最高点（ATHS）之前经过了25％至30％的校正。

“In 2023, BTC went from $30K to $22K. In 2024, BTC went from $74K to $50K. This year, BTC has dumped from $109K to $79K. We all know what happened after the last 2 major corrections.”

“ 2023年，BTC从$ 30K上涨到22,000美元。 2024年，BTC从$ 74K上涨到$ 50K。今年，BTC已从$ 109K倾销到$ 79,000。我们都知道最后两个重大更正后发生了什么。”

If Bitcoin follows a similar pattern and rises 30% from its current price, it could reach approximately $104,000 in a short period.

如果比特币遵循类似的模式，并且比目前的价格上涨了30％，那么在短时间内可能会达到约104,000美元。

However, broader macroeconomic factors, such as US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s trajectory.

但是，更广泛的宏观经济因素，例如美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易关税和美联储（美联储）货币政策，可能会严重影响比特币的轨迹。

In another post on X, Martinez highlighted Bitcoin’s potential path to a new ATH, emphasizing that Bitcoin must first reclaim $84,000 as a support level before any major upside movement.

在X上的另一篇文章中，马丁内斯强调了比特币的潜在通往新ATH的途径，强调比特币必须首先在任何重大上行移动之前首先将84,000美元作为支持水平。

Once this milestone is secured, the digital asset could rally toward $128,000.

一旦确保了这个里程碑，数字资产就可以集结到128,000美元。

Several indicators suggest that Bitcoin may have already found a local bottom, increasing the chances of a trend reversal.

一些指标表明，比特币可能已经找到了局部底部，从而增加了趋势逆转的机会。

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently noted that Bitcoin’s plunge to $78,258 could mark the cycle low.

加密分析师Rekt Capital最近指出，比特币的暴跌至78,258美元可能标志着周期的低点。

“Looks like #Bitcoin has finally reached the Fibonacci level that was meant to hold. At least according to the Count.

“看起来#bitcoin终于达到了要保持的斐波那契水平。至少根据计数。

Set in 3, 7, 11, 21 … the 89 Wave (purple) is meant to be a fib level that holds major trends. At least according to Elliott Wave Theory.”

设置在3、7、11、21…89波（紫色）的旨在是具有主要趋势的FIB水平。至少根据Elliott Wave理论。”

Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has just recorded one of its largest weekly breakdowns since 2013, a move that historically signals bullish momentum for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

此外，美元指数（DXY）自2013年以来刚刚记录了其每周最大的崩溃之一，这一举动历史上标志着像比特币这样的风险资产的势头。

The DXY dropped by 1.9% over the past week, closing below the 100-week MA for the first time since November 2022.

在过去一周中，DXY下降了1.9％，自2022年11月以来首次关闭100周的MA。

This divergence from the 200-day MA, which usually leads to further declines, could be a key factor to watch.

通常会导致进一步下降的200天MA的差异可能是观看的关键因素。