由于没有伴随的价格变动,比特币的未平仓合约(OI)最近飙升,让许多市场参与者感到困惑。
Bitcoin open interest (OI) has surged in recent days, leaving many market participants scratching their heads. Rising open interest typically indicates increased market participation. OI is the total number of outstanding derivative contracts. But if this happens with little change in the price, something odd is probably happening.
最近几天,比特币持仓量(OI)激增,让许多市场参与者摸不着头脑。未平仓合约增加通常表明市场参与度增加。 OI 是未平仓衍生品合约的总数。但如果这种情况在价格几乎没有变化的情况下发生,那么可能会发生一些奇怪的事情。
Several possible explanations could account for this phenomenon.
有几种可能的解释可以解释这种现象。
One possibility is that institutional traders or large organizations may be getting ready for a major market event. Instead of making significant trades on the spot market just yet, they might be building up positions in the derivatives market to prevent volatility before they are ready to move. For example, if they have access to important upcoming information, such as regulatory news, ETFs or large partnerships, market insiders may be able to build up exposure without causing a price spike and waiting for the optimal time to make their move.
一种可能性是机构交易者或大型组织可能正在为重大市场事件做好准备。他们可能不会在现货市场上进行大量交易,而是在衍生品市场上建立头寸,以在准备行动之前防止波动。例如,如果市场内部人士能够获得重要的即将发布的信息,例如监管新闻、ETF或大型合作伙伴关系,那么他们可能能够在不导致价格飙升的情况下建立风险敞口,并等待最佳时机采取行动。
Another logical explanation could be an increase in hedging activity. To protect their holdings from possible downside risks, large Bitcoin holders may be purchasing options and futures contracts. This would increase OI while having minimal impact on the spot price, due to the traders' indirect purchases of Bitcoin. This may occur if traders anticipate higher volatility in the near future - perhaps in relation to prominent crypto news stories or macroeconomic events.
另一个合乎逻辑的解释可能是对冲活动的增加。为了保护其持有的资产免受可能的下行风险的影响,大型比特币持有者可能会购买期权和期货合约。由于交易者间接购买比特币,这将增加 OI,同时对现货价格的影响最小。如果交易者预计不久的将来会出现更高的波动性(可能与著名的加密新闻报道或宏观经济事件有关),则可能会发生这种情况。
Finally, an increase in OI without a price spike could be a sign of a short squeeze. The increasing OI may indicate that many shorts are being opened - if many traders are betting against Bitcoin by shorting it. The market may quickly close short trades if it moves against these positions, which would put buying pressure on the price as traders try to cover their positions.
最后,持仓量增加但价格并未飙升可能是轧空的迹象。持仓量的增加可能表明许多空头正在开立——如果许多交易者通过做空比特币来做空比特币。如果市场走势不利于这些头寸,市场可能会迅速关闭空头交易,这会给价格带来买盘压力,因为交易者试图补仓。