由於沒有伴隨的價格變動,比特幣的未平倉合約(OI)最近飆升,讓許多市場參與者感到困惑。
Bitcoin open interest (OI) has surged in recent days, leaving many market participants scratching their heads. Rising open interest typically indicates increased market participation. OI is the total number of outstanding derivative contracts. But if this happens with little change in the price, something odd is probably happening.
最近幾天,比特幣持倉量(OI)激增,讓許多市場參與者摸不著頭緒。未平倉合約增加通常表示市場參與度增加。 OI 是未平倉衍生性合約的總數。但如果這種情況在價格幾乎沒有變化的情況下發生,那麼可能會發生一些奇怪的事情。
Several possible explanations could account for this phenomenon.
有幾種可能的解釋可以解釋這種現象。
One possibility is that institutional traders or large organizations may be getting ready for a major market event. Instead of making significant trades on the spot market just yet, they might be building up positions in the derivatives market to prevent volatility before they are ready to move. For example, if they have access to important upcoming information, such as regulatory news, ETFs or large partnerships, market insiders may be able to build up exposure without causing a price spike and waiting for the optimal time to make their move.
一種可能性是機構交易者或大型組織可能正在為重大市場事件做好準備。他們可能不會在現貨市場上進行大量交易,而是在衍生性商品市場上建立頭寸,以在準備行動之前防止波動。例如,如果市場內部人士能夠獲得重要的即將發布的信息,例如監管新聞、ETF或大型合作夥伴關係,那麼他們可能能夠在不導致價格飆升的情況下建立風險敞口,並等待最佳時機採取行動。
Another logical explanation could be an increase in hedging activity. To protect their holdings from possible downside risks, large Bitcoin holders may be purchasing options and futures contracts. This would increase OI while having minimal impact on the spot price, due to the traders' indirect purchases of Bitcoin. This may occur if traders anticipate higher volatility in the near future - perhaps in relation to prominent crypto news stories or macroeconomic events.
另一個合乎邏輯的解釋可能是對沖活動的增加。為了保護其持有的資產免受可能的下行風險的影響,大型比特幣持有者可能會購買選擇權和期貨合約。由於交易者間接購買比特幣,這將增加 OI,同時對現貨價格的影響最小。如果交易者預計在不久的將來會出現更高的波動性(可能與著名的加密新聞報道或宏觀經濟事件有關),則可能會發生這種情況。
Finally, an increase in OI without a price spike could be a sign of a short squeeze. The increasing OI may indicate that many shorts are being opened - if many traders are betting against Bitcoin by shorting it. The market may quickly close short trades if it moves against these positions, which would put buying pressure on the price as traders try to cover their positions.
最後,持倉量增加但價格並未飆升可能是軋空的跡象。持倉量的增加可能表明許多空頭正在開立——如果許多交易者透過做空比特幣來做空比特幣。如果市場走勢不利於這些頭寸,市場可能會迅速關閉空頭交易,這會對價格造成買盤壓力,因為交易者試圖補倉。