在 ETF、减半预期和市场动态的推动下，3 月份比特币飙升

3 月份，比特币大幅上涨，创下历史新高，ETF 交易量飙升至 1110 亿美元，几乎是 2 月份的三倍。 ETF 购买量显着超过矿商产量，导致需求增加。然而，对冲基金的大量空头头寸超过 98,000 个比特币，暗示他们对即将到来的减半持怀疑态度，而摩根士丹利和瑞银等投资公司则对 ETF 产品表现出看涨情绪。

Bitcoin's Bullish March: A Surge Fueled by ETFs, Halving Anticipation, and Market Dynamics

比特币牛市三月：ETF、减半预期和市场动态推动比特币飙升

The month of March witnessed a remarkable surge in Bitcoin's trajectory, propelling it to unprecedented highs. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) played a pivotal role in this meteoric rise, with trading volumes reaching an astounding $111 billion, nearly triple the $42 billion recorded in February. ETF purchases accounted for an impressive 66,000 Bitcoin, valued at $3.3 billion, eclipsing miner production estimates of around 28,000, a figure poised to halve in the near future.

三月份见证了比特币走势的显着飙升，将其推至前所未有的高位。交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在这一飞速增长中发挥了关键作用，交易量达到惊人的 1,110 亿美元，几乎是 2 月份记录的 420 亿美元的三倍。 ETF 购买量达到了令人印象深刻的 66,000 比特币，价值 33 亿美元，超过了约 28,000 比特币的矿机产量预估，这一数字有望在不久的将来减半。

Adding further momentum to this upward trend was MicroStrategy's ambitious $1.4 billion investment to join Bitcoin's exclusive "1% club," further exacerbating the demand for the digital asset. Despite the imminent halving event, which will reduce Bitcoin's issuance rate by half, hedge funds have been actively shorting Bitcoin at record levels. As of now, traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hold short positions exceeding 98,000 Bitcoin, equivalent to over $6 billion in value.

MicroStrategy 雄心勃勃地投资 14 亿美元加入比特币专属的“1% 俱乐部”，进一步加剧了这一上升趋势，进一步加剧了对数字资产的需求。尽管减半事件即将到来，比特币的发行率将降低一半，但对冲基金一直在积极做空比特币，其规模创下历史新高。截至目前，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的交易员持有超过 98,000 个比特币的空头头寸，相当于价值超过 60 亿美元。

This bearish sentiment among hedge funds suggests their belief that the halving will not be a significant catalyst for further price appreciation and anticipates a potential decline. However, two financial behemoths, Morgan Stanley and UBS, are poised to offer Bitcoin ETFs to their clients, which could potentially undermine the short-sellers' strategy. Historically, the average one-month return following the three previous halvings has been 4.2%, while the average six-month return has been an astonishing 360%.

对冲基金的这种看跌情绪表明，他们相信减半不会成为价格进一步升值的重要催化剂，并预计价格可能会下跌。然而，摩根士丹利和瑞银这两家金融巨头准备向其客户提供比特币 ETF，这可能会破坏卖空者的策略。从历史上看，前三次减半后的一个月平均回报率为4.2%，而六个月平均回报率高达惊人的360%。

Alternatively, these hedge funds may be employing a carry trade strategy akin to that used by Ethena Finance. This involves taking a short position on Bitcoin while simultaneously holding an equivalent spot position and collecting the funding rates on futures contracts. This approach creates a market-neutral position and currently generates an annual return of approximately 10%.

或者，这些对冲基金可能采用类似于 Ethena Finance 所使用的套利交易策略。这涉及持有比特币空头头寸，同时持有同等现货头寸并收取期货合约的融资利率。这种方法创造了市场中立的地位，目前的年回报率约为 10%。

In contrast to the frenzied ETF trading witnessed in previous weeks, the flow of funds into ETFs has been relatively subdued this past week. However, Grayscale's dominance in the outflow department has diminished somewhat. Notably, for the first time since ETFs' inception, Grayscale was not the leader in outflows on Tuesday. That distinction fell to Ark Invest's ARKB, the third-largest ETF with over $2.2 billion in assets. ARKB experienced outflows of $87 million, surpassing Grayscale's $82 million. The elevated fees associated with ARKB could be a contributing factor to this outflow, with investors seeking lower-cost alternatives. Of the 11 ETFs, only four currently charge any fees.

与前几周 ETF 交易的疯狂相比，上周流入 ETF 的资金相对较少。不过，灰度在流出部门的主导地位有所减弱。值得注意的是，自 ETF 成立以来，灰度首次没有成为周二资金流出的领头羊。这一殊荣落到了 Ark Invest 的 ARKB 身上，它是第三大 ETF，资产超过 22 亿美元。 ARKB 的资金流出量为 8700 万美元，超过 Grayscale 的 8200 万美元。与 ARKB 相关的费用上涨可能是导致资金外流的一个因素，投资者正在寻求成本更低的替代方案。在 11 只 ETF 中，目前只有 4 只收取任何费用。

Coinbase, the leading cryptocurrency exchange, is taking proactive steps to reduce fees and expedite transactions for its users. On Wednesday, Coinbase announced its official integration with the Bitcoin Lightning Network in collaboration with Lightspark. This partnership will empower Coinbase users to send and receive Bitcoin instantly with transaction fees below $0.01. The move is expected to enhance the usability of Bitcoin for everyday transactions and position Coinbase as a formidable competitor to Ethereum layer 2s and Solana.

领先的加密货币交易所 Coinbase 正在采取积极措施来降低费用并加快用户的交易速度。周三，Coinbase 宣布与 Lightspark 合作正式整合比特币闪电网络。此次合作将使 Coinbase 用户能够即时发送和接收比特币，交易费用低于 0.01 美元。此举预计将增强比特币在日常交易中的可用性，并使 Coinbase 成为以太坊第 2 层和 Solana 的强大竞争对手。

Despite the rapid growth of Coinbase's own layer 2 solution, Base, which has generated $9 million in fees over the past seven days and processed record-breaking transaction volumes, the exchange remains committed to the asset that laid the foundation for its success: Bitcoin. The integration with the Lightning Network underscores Coinbase's determination to foster the adoption and accessibility of Bitcoin.

尽管 Coinbase 自己的第 2 层解决方案 Base 快速增长，在过去 7 天内产生了 900 万美元的费用并处理了破纪录的交易量，但该交易所仍然致力于为其成功奠定基础的资产：比特币。与闪电网络的集成凸显了 Coinbase 促进比特币的采用和可访问性的决心。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's recent rally has been driven by a confluence of factors, including the influx of funds into ETFs, the impending halving event, and diverse market dynamics. While hedge funds have adopted a bearish stance, betting against the halving's potential impact, historical data and the participation of major financial institutions suggest a bullish outlook. Coinbase's integration with the Lightning Network further enhances the usability of Bitcoin, solidifying its position as a transformative force in the financial landscape.

总而言之，比特币近期的上涨是由多种因素共同推动的，包括资金涌入 ETF、即将到来的减半事件以及多样化的市场动态。虽然对冲基金采取了看跌立场，押注减半的潜在影响，但历史数据和主要金融机构的参与表明前景看涨。 Coinbase 与闪电网络的集成进一步增强了比特币的可用性，巩固了其作为金融领域变革力量的地位。