在 ETF、減半預期和市場動態的推動下，3 月比特幣飆升

3 月份，比特幣大幅上漲，創下歷史新高，ETF 交易量飆升至 1,110 億美元，幾乎是 2 月的三倍。 ETF 購買量顯著超過礦商產量，導致需求增加。然而，對沖基金的大量空頭部位超過 98,000 個比特幣，暗示他們對即將到來的減半持懷疑態度，而摩根士丹利和瑞銀等投資公司則對 ETF 產品表現出看漲情緒。

Bitcoin's Bullish March: A Surge Fueled by ETFs, Halving Anticipation, and Market Dynamics

比特幣牛市三月：ETF、減半預期和市場動態推動比特幣飆升

The month of March witnessed a remarkable surge in Bitcoin's trajectory, propelling it to unprecedented highs. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) played a pivotal role in this meteoric rise, with trading volumes reaching an astounding $111 billion, nearly triple the $42 billion recorded in February. ETF purchases accounted for an impressive 66,000 Bitcoin, valued at $3.3 billion, eclipsing miner production estimates of around 28,000, a figure poised to halve in the near future.

三月見證了比特幣走勢的顯著飆升，將其推至前所未有的高點。交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在這一快速成長中發揮了關鍵作用，交易量達到驚人的 1,110 億美元，幾乎是 2 月記錄的 420 億美元的三倍。 ETF 購買量達到了令人印象深刻的 66,000 比特幣，價值 33 億美元，超過了約 28,000 比特幣的礦機產量預估，這一數字預計將在不久的將來減半。

Adding further momentum to this upward trend was MicroStrategy's ambitious $1.4 billion investment to join Bitcoin's exclusive "1% club," further exacerbating the demand for the digital asset. Despite the imminent halving event, which will reduce Bitcoin's issuance rate by half, hedge funds have been actively shorting Bitcoin at record levels. As of now, traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hold short positions exceeding 98,000 Bitcoin, equivalent to over $6 billion in value.

MicroStrategy 雄心勃勃地投資 14 億美元加入比特幣專屬的“1% 俱樂部”，進一步加劇了這一上升趨勢，進一步加劇了對數位資產的需求。儘管減半事件即將到來，比特幣的發行率將降低一半，但對沖基金一直在積極做空比特幣，其規模創下歷史新高。截至目前，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的交易員持有超過 98,000 個比特幣的空頭頭寸，相當於價值超過 60 億美元。

This bearish sentiment among hedge funds suggests their belief that the halving will not be a significant catalyst for further price appreciation and anticipates a potential decline. However, two financial behemoths, Morgan Stanley and UBS, are poised to offer Bitcoin ETFs to their clients, which could potentially undermine the short-sellers' strategy. Historically, the average one-month return following the three previous halvings has been 4.2%, while the average six-month return has been an astonishing 360%.

對沖基金的這種看跌情緒表明，他們相信減半不會成為價格進一步升值的重要催化劑，並預期價格可能會下跌。然而，摩根士丹利和瑞銀這兩家金融巨頭準備向其客戶提供比特幣 ETF，這可能會破壞賣空者的策略。從歷史上看，前三次減半後的一個月平均回報率為4.2%，而六個月平均回報率高達驚人的360%。

Alternatively, these hedge funds may be employing a carry trade strategy akin to that used by Ethena Finance. This involves taking a short position on Bitcoin while simultaneously holding an equivalent spot position and collecting the funding rates on futures contracts. This approach creates a market-neutral position and currently generates an annual return of approximately 10%.

或者，這些對沖基金可能採用類似 Ethena Finance 所使用的套利交易策略。這涉及持有比特幣空頭頭寸，同時持有同等現貨頭寸並收取期貨合約的融資利率。這種方法創造了市場中立的地位，目前的年報酬率約為 10%。

In contrast to the frenzied ETF trading witnessed in previous weeks, the flow of funds into ETFs has been relatively subdued this past week. However, Grayscale's dominance in the outflow department has diminished somewhat. Notably, for the first time since ETFs' inception, Grayscale was not the leader in outflows on Tuesday. That distinction fell to Ark Invest's ARKB, the third-largest ETF with over $2.2 billion in assets. ARKB experienced outflows of $87 million, surpassing Grayscale's $82 million. The elevated fees associated with ARKB could be a contributing factor to this outflow, with investors seeking lower-cost alternatives. Of the 11 ETFs, only four currently charge any fees.

與前幾週 ETF 交易的瘋狂相比，上週流入 ETF 的資金相對較少。不過，灰度在流出部門的主導地位減弱。值得注意的是，自 ETF 成立以來，灰階首次沒有成為週二資金流出的領頭羊。這項殊榮落到了 Ark Invest 的 ARKB 身上，它是第三大 ETF，資產超過 22 億美元。 ARKB 的資金流出量為 8,700 萬美元，超過 Grayscale 的 8,200 萬美元。與 ARKB 相關的費用上漲可能是導致資金外流的一個因素，投資者正在尋求成本更低的替代方案。在 11 檔 ETF 中，目前只有 4 隻收取任何費用。

Coinbase, the leading cryptocurrency exchange, is taking proactive steps to reduce fees and expedite transactions for its users. On Wednesday, Coinbase announced its official integration with the Bitcoin Lightning Network in collaboration with Lightspark. This partnership will empower Coinbase users to send and receive Bitcoin instantly with transaction fees below $0.01. The move is expected to enhance the usability of Bitcoin for everyday transactions and position Coinbase as a formidable competitor to Ethereum layer 2s and Solana.

領先的加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase 正在採取積極措施來降低費用並加快用戶的交易速度。週三，Coinbase 宣布與 Lightspark 合作正式整合比特幣閃電網路。此次合作將使 Coinbase 用戶能夠即時發送和接收比特幣，交易費用低於 0.01 美元。此舉預計將增強比特幣在日常交易中的可用性，並使 Coinbase 成為以太坊第 2 層和 Solana 的強大競爭對手。

Despite the rapid growth of Coinbase's own layer 2 solution, Base, which has generated $9 million in fees over the past seven days and processed record-breaking transaction volumes, the exchange remains committed to the asset that laid the foundation for its success: Bitcoin. The integration with the Lightning Network underscores Coinbase's determination to foster the adoption and accessibility of Bitcoin.

儘管Coinbase 自己的第2 層解決方案Base 快速增長，在過去7 天內產生了900 萬美元的費用並處理了破紀錄的交易量，但該交易所仍然致力於為其成功奠定基礎的資產：比特幣。與閃電網路的整合凸顯了 Coinbase 促進比特幣的採用和可訪問性的決心。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's recent rally has been driven by a confluence of factors, including the influx of funds into ETFs, the impending halving event, and diverse market dynamics. While hedge funds have adopted a bearish stance, betting against the halving's potential impact, historical data and the participation of major financial institutions suggest a bullish outlook. Coinbase's integration with the Lightning Network further enhances the usability of Bitcoin, solidifying its position as a transformative force in the financial landscape.

總而言之，比特幣近期的上漲是由多種因素共同推動的，包括資金湧入 ETF、即將到來的減半事件以及多樣化的市場動態。雖然對沖基金採取了看跌立場，押注減半的潛在影響，但歷史數據和主要金融機構的參與表明前景看漲。 Coinbase 與閃電網路的整合進一步增強了比特幣的可用性，鞏固了其作為金融領域變革力量的地位。