Van Straten：随着鲸鱼卸下他们的藏品，比特币虾成为新的“智能货币”

当我们研究这次反弹的群组细分时，比特币在过去一周飙升了 20,000 美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price action has surged by over $20,000 in the past week alone. Now, a closer examination of the different types of market participants reveals a surprising trend.

仅过去一周，比特币 (BTC) 的价格走势就飙升了 20,000 美元以上。现在，对不同类型的市场参与者的仔细研究揭示了一个令人惊讶的趋势。

While common wisdom might suggest that large bitcoin holders, often referred to as "whales," are driving the buying, on-chain data indicates otherwise. Instead, it appears that smaller bitcoin addresses are the ones accumulating the cryptocurrency as prices rise.

虽然常识可能表明大型比特币持有者（通常被称为“鲸鱼”）正在推动购买，但链上数据表明情况并非如此。相反，随着价格上涨，较小的比特币地址似乎正在积累加密货币。

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, all cohorts other than humpback whales, which are defined as bitcoin addresses holding over 10,000 BTC, have shown net accumulation over the past two months. This period coincides with bitcoin's upward price trajectory, which saw the primary cryptocurrency climb from around $55,000 in September to just shy of $90,000 in November.

根据链上分析公司 Glassnode 的数据，除了座头鲸（被定义为持有超过 10,000 BTC 的比特币地址）之外的所有群组在过去两个月都显示出净积累。这一时期恰逢比特币价格上涨的轨迹，主要加密货币从 9 月份的 55,000 美元左右攀升至 11 月份的近 90,000 美元。

The analysis groups market participants into cohorts based on the amount of bitcoin they hold, ranging from less than one BTC, known as "shrimps," to over 10,000 BTC, denoted as "humpback whales." A value closer to one on the chart indicates that the respective cohort is accumulating tokens, whereas a value close to zero represents distribution.

该分析根据市场参与者持有的比特币数量将其分为不同的群体，从少于 1 BTC（称为“虾”）到超过 10,000 BTC（称为“座头鲸”）。图表上接近 1 的值表示相应群组正在积累代币，而接近 0 的值表示分布。

The chart shows that shrimps, small bitcoin addresses holding less than one BTC, have been accumulating throughout the past two months, indicating a trend of buying bitcoin on the way up. In contrast, humpback whales, depicted by the blue line, have been distributing their bitcoin holdings over the past two months. This behavior suggests that whales are selling their bitcoin as prices rise, a strategy commonly known as "sell on rise."

图表显示，虾（持有不到 1 个 BTC 的小型比特币地址）在过去两个月中一直在积累，表明了在上涨过程中购买比特币的趋势。相比之下，蓝线所示的座头鲸在过去两个月里一直在分配其持有的比特币。这种行为表明，鲸鱼随着价格上涨而出售比特币，这种策略通常被称为“上涨时卖出”。

This data challenges the narrative that whales are the "smart money" of the bitcoin ecosystem, a notion that has been propagated in the past. The feature image, which shows that whales have been selling into price strength, while retail has been buying the rally, further highlights this trend.

这些数据挑战了过去一直传播的“鲸鱼是比特币生态系统的“聪明钱””的说法。该专题图片显示，鲸鱼一直在价格走强时抛售，而散户一直在上涨时买入，进一步凸显了这一趋势。

However, it’s important to note that while smaller bitcoin addresses are showing net accumulation, overall demand has been outpacing supply and issuance. When aggregating the data from all cohorts, including miners, exchanges and retail investors, over the past 30 days, it shows that all groups combined have net bitcoin holdings, which total over 26,000 BTC. But again, this demand has been consistent for the past three months, outstripping supply and issuance.

然而，值得注意的是，虽然较小的比特币地址显示出净积累，但总体需求已经超过了供应和发行。当汇总过去 30 天内所有群体（包括矿工、交易所和散户投资者）的数据时，显示所有群体合计拥有比特币净持有量，总计超过 26,000 BTC。但同样，这种需求在过去三个月里一直保持不变，超过了供应和发行。

This sustained demand has contributed to bitcoin’s price rally, pushing the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs in recent weeks. However, the narrative of smaller bitcoin addresses driving the buying is an interesting observation, especially given the common perception that "smart money" is typically associated with large bitcoin holders.

这种持续的需求推动了比特币价格上涨，推动加密货币在最近几周创下历史新高。然而，较小的比特币地址推动购买的叙述是一个有趣的观察，特别是考虑到“聪明的钱”通常与大型比特币持有者相关的普遍看法。