Van Straten：隨著鯨魚卸下他們的藏品，比特幣蝦成為新的“智慧貨幣”

當我們研究這次反彈的群組細分市場時，比特幣在過去一周飆升了 20,000 美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price action has surged by over $20,000 in the past week alone. Now, a closer examination of the different types of market participants reveals a surprising trend.

光是過去一周，比特幣 (BTC) 的價格走勢就飆升了 20,000 美元以上。現在，對不同類型的市場參與者的仔細研究揭示了一個令人驚訝的趨勢。

While common wisdom might suggest that large bitcoin holders, often referred to as "whales," are driving the buying, on-chain data indicates otherwise. Instead, it appears that smaller bitcoin addresses are the ones accumulating the cryptocurrency as prices rise.

雖然常識可能表明大型比特幣持有者（通常被稱為「鯨魚」）正在推動購買，但鏈上數據表明情況並非如此。相反，隨著價格上漲，較小的比特幣地址似乎正在累積加密貨幣。

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, all cohorts other than humpback whales, which are defined as bitcoin addresses holding over 10,000 BTC, have shown net accumulation over the past two months. This period coincides with bitcoin's upward price trajectory, which saw the primary cryptocurrency climb from around $55,000 in September to just shy of $90,000 in November.

根據鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 的數據，除了座頭鯨（被定義為持有超過 10,000 BTC 的比特幣地址）之外的所有群組在過去兩個月都顯示出淨累積。這段時期恰逢比特幣價格上漲的軌跡，主要加密貨幣從 9 月的 55,000 美元左右攀升至 11 月的近 90,000 美元。

The analysis groups market participants into cohorts based on the amount of bitcoin they hold, ranging from less than one BTC, known as "shrimps," to over 10,000 BTC, denoted as "humpback whales." A value closer to one on the chart indicates that the respective cohort is accumulating tokens, whereas a value close to zero represents distribution.

該分析根據市場參與者持有的比特幣數量將其分為不同的群體，從少於 1 BTC（稱為「蝦」）到超過 10,000 BTC（稱為「座頭鯨」）。圖表上接近 1 的值表示對應群組正在累積代幣，而接近 0 的值表示分佈。

The chart shows that shrimps, small bitcoin addresses holding less than one BTC, have been accumulating throughout the past two months, indicating a trend of buying bitcoin on the way up. In contrast, humpback whales, depicted by the blue line, have been distributing their bitcoin holdings over the past two months. This behavior suggests that whales are selling their bitcoin as prices rise, a strategy commonly known as "sell on rise."

圖表顯示，蝦子（持有不到 1 個 BTC 的小型比特幣地址）在過去兩個月中一直在積累，顯示了在上漲過程中購買比特幣的趨勢。相比之下，藍線所示的座頭鯨在過去兩個月一直在分配其持有的比特幣。這種行為表明，鯨魚隨著價格上漲而出售比特幣，這種策略通常被稱為「上漲時賣出」。

This data challenges the narrative that whales are the "smart money" of the bitcoin ecosystem, a notion that has been propagated in the past. The feature image, which shows that whales have been selling into price strength, while retail has been buying the rally, further highlights this trend.

這些數據挑戰了過去一直在傳播的「鯨魚是比特幣生態系統的「聰明錢」」的說法。該專題圖片顯示，鯨魚一直在價格走強時拋售，而散戶一直在上漲時買入，進一步凸顯了這一趨勢。

However, it’s important to note that while smaller bitcoin addresses are showing net accumulation, overall demand has been outpacing supply and issuance. When aggregating the data from all cohorts, including miners, exchanges and retail investors, over the past 30 days, it shows that all groups combined have net bitcoin holdings, which total over 26,000 BTC. But again, this demand has been consistent for the past three months, outstripping supply and issuance.

然而，值得注意的是，雖然較小的比特幣地址顯示出淨積累，但總體需求已經超過了供應和發行。當匯總過去 30 天內所有群體（包括礦工、交易所和散戶投資者）的數據時，顯示所有群體合計擁有比特幣淨持有量，總計超過 26,000 BTC。但同樣，這種需求在過去三個月裡保持不變，超過了供應和發行。

This sustained demand has contributed to bitcoin’s price rally, pushing the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs in recent weeks. However, the narrative of smaller bitcoin addresses driving the buying is an interesting observation, especially given the common perception that "smart money" is typically associated with large bitcoin holders.

這種持續的需求推動了比特幣價格上漲，推動加密貨幣在最近幾週創下歷史新高。然而，較小的比特幣地址推動購買的敘述是一個有趣的觀察，特別是考慮到「聰明的錢」通常與大型比特幣持有者相關的普遍看法。