随着美联储降息，比特币将会上涨，但事情没那么简单

当被问及比特币的下一个催化剂时，Iuorio 表示，美联储降息可能会为比特币提供长期提振，因为较低的融资成本通常会支持更多的“风险”资产。

As the Federal Reserve continues cutting interest rates, bitcoin could experience a long-term boost due to the lower funding costs, which generally support more “risk-on” assets, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors.

Fundstrat Global Advisors 表示，随着美联储继续降息，由于融资成本较低，比特币可能会经历长期提振，这通常会支持更多的“风险”资产。

“You have to assume that bitcoin will have a sensitivity to interest rates. If we think rates are going lower, that could be a tailwind for bitcoin,” said Fundstrat technical strategist Mark Iuorio, although he noted that bitcoin's notorious volatility hasn't always meant it behaves as expected.

“你必须假设比特币对利率很敏感。 Fundstrat 技术策略师 Mark Iuorio 表示：“如果我们认为利率正在走低，那可能会成为比特币的顺风车。”尽管他指出，比特币臭名昭著的波动性并不总是意味着它的表现符合预期。

However, Iuorio added that investors must look beyond interest rates when considering how they might affect bitcoin.

然而，Iuorio 补充说，投资者在考虑利率可能如何影响比特币时，必须超越利率。

“To gauge how rates might affect bitcoin, we need to consider other factors like the business cycle, inflation and overall market sentiment,” said Michael Lie, Global Head of Digital Assets at Flow Traders. “Right now, U.S. rates are trending down, the U.S. economy is holding strong, and risk appetite is generally elevated. This combination could continue to push the bitcoin market higher in the short-to-medium term.”

Flow Traders 数字资产全球主管 Michael Lie 表示：“为了衡量利率如何影响比特币，我们需要考虑其他因素，例如商业周期、通胀和整体市场情绪。” “目前，美国利率呈下降趋势，美国经济保持强劲，风险偏好普遍上升。这种组合可能会在中短期内继续推动比特币市场走高。”

Iuorio also highlighted America's growing debt problem, which is seen lifting bitcoin's status as a dollar hedge.

Iuorio 还强调了美国日益严重的债务问题，这被视为提升了比特币作为美元对冲工具的地位。

“The market is concerned about interest payments on our national debt and the potential of some debt spiral in the distant future,” said Iuorio. “Interest on debt will be $1.4 trillion [in 2025]. It's a line item on the federal budget, above defense and above all healthcare spending. That's making some people question if they are 100% confident in our fiat currency or global fiats, and if it's a good idea to consider different currency hedges. Bitcoin can be one of them.”

尤里奥表示：“市场担心我们国家债务的利息支付以及在遥远的将来债务螺旋式上升的可能性。” “[2025 年]债务利息将达到 1.4 万亿美元。这是联邦预算中的一个项目，高于国防支出和所有医疗保健支出。这让一些人质疑他们是否对我们的法定货币或全球法定货币 100% 有信心，以及考虑不同的货币对冲是否是个好主意。比特币可能就是其中之一。”