隨著聯準會降息，比特幣將會上漲，但事情沒那麼簡單

當被問及比特幣的下一個催化劑時，Iuorio 表示，聯準會降息可能會為比特幣提供長期提振，因為較低的融資成本通常會支持更多的「風險」資產。

As the Federal Reserve continues cutting interest rates, bitcoin could experience a long-term boost due to the lower funding costs, which generally support more “risk-on” assets, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors.

Fundstrat Global Advisors 表示，隨著聯準會繼續降息，由於融資成本較低，比特幣可能會經歷長期提振，這通常會支持更多的「風險」資產。

“You have to assume that bitcoin will have a sensitivity to interest rates. If we think rates are going lower, that could be a tailwind for bitcoin,” said Fundstrat technical strategist Mark Iuorio, although he noted that bitcoin's notorious volatility hasn't always meant it behaves as expected.

「你必須假設比特幣對利率很敏感。 Fundstrat 技術策略師 Mark Iuorio 表示：「如果我們認為利率正在走低，那可能會成為比特幣的順風車。」儘管他指出，比特幣臭名昭著的波動性並不總是意味著它的表現符合預期。

However, Iuorio added that investors must look beyond interest rates when considering how they might affect bitcoin.

然而，Iuorio 補充說，投資者在考慮利率可能如何影響比特幣時，必須超越利率。

“To gauge how rates might affect bitcoin, we need to consider other factors like the business cycle, inflation and overall market sentiment,” said Michael Lie, Global Head of Digital Assets at Flow Traders. “Right now, U.S. rates are trending down, the U.S. economy is holding strong, and risk appetite is generally elevated. This combination could continue to push the bitcoin market higher in the short-to-medium term.”

Flow Traders 數位資產全球主管 Michael Lie 表示：“為了衡量利率如何影響比特幣，我們需要考慮其他因素，例如商業週期、通膨和整體市場情緒。” 「目前，美國利率呈下降趨勢，美國經濟維持強勁，風險偏好普遍上升。這種組合可能會在中短期內繼續推動比特幣市場走高。

Iuorio also highlighted America's growing debt problem, which is seen lifting bitcoin's status as a dollar hedge.

Iuorio 也強調了美國日益嚴重的債務問題，這被視為提升了比特幣作為美元對沖工具的地位。

“The market is concerned about interest payments on our national debt and the potential of some debt spiral in the distant future,” said Iuorio. “Interest on debt will be $1.4 trillion [in 2025]. It's a line item on the federal budget, above defense and above all healthcare spending. That's making some people question if they are 100% confident in our fiat currency or global fiats, and if it's a good idea to consider different currency hedges. Bitcoin can be one of them.”

「市場擔心我們國家債務的利息支付以及在遙遠的未來債務螺旋式上升的可能性，」尤里奧說。 「[2025 年]債務利息將達到 1.4 兆美元。這是聯邦預算中的一個項目，高於國防支出和所有醫療保健支出。這讓一些人質疑他們是否對我們的法定貨幣或全球法定貨幣 100% 有信心，並考慮不同的貨幣對沖是否是個好主意。比特幣可能就是其中之一。