比特币的复苏标志着经济不确定性下市场的韧性

5月2日，在美联储决定维持利率不变后，比特币价格飙升，提振了风险偏好。尽管 FOMC 新闻稿发出的信号不一，但 BTC/USD 仍反弹超过 3%，可能预示着下跌趋势的结束。分析师指出，比特币减半周期与 2016 年比特币减半周期相似，表明可能会出现进一步调整，但影响不大。负 STH MVRV 和高亏损交易等链上指标表明人群投降，支持市场反弹的概念。

Bitcoin's Resurgence: A Sign of Resilience in an Unpredictable Market

比特币的复苏：不可预测的市场中的韧性迹象

The cryptocurrency market, known for its volatility and susceptibility to external factors, has recently experienced a surge in optimism following the Federal Reserve's economic policy announcements on May 1st.

以波动性和易受外部因素影响而闻名的加密货币市场，在美联储 5 月 1 日公布经济政策后，近期乐观情绪高涨。

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conveyed its decision to maintain interest rates at 5.25%–5.50%, effectively dashing investors' hopes for rate cuts in 2024. Simultaneously, the Fed announced its plan to reduce the pace of its balance sheet reductions from $60 billion to $25 billion per month, a move interpreted as a slight dovish shift.

联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)宣布维持利率在5.25%–5.50%的决定，有效破灭了投资者2024年降息的希望。同时，美联储宣布计划将缩减资产负债表的步伐从每月 600 亿至 250 亿美元，此举被解读为轻微的鸽派转变。

The market's response to the FOMC's press release was initially mixed. Some analysts, such as Fejau, a market analyst and active X user, noted the contradictory signals sent by the Fed's stance on balance sheet reductions (dovish) and rate cuts (hawkish). Others, however, viewed the overall message as positive, interpreting it as a sign that the Fed is cautiously optimistic about the economy's resilience.

市场最初对 FOMC 新闻稿的反应不一。市场分析师兼Active X用户Fejau等一些分析师指出，美联储在缩减资产负债表（鸽派）和降息（鹰派）方面的立场发出了矛盾的信号。然而，其他人则认为总体信息是积极的，并将其解读为美联储对经济弹性持谨慎乐观态度的迹象。

This positive sentiment was reflected in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the charge. BTC's price, which had been trending downwards in recent weeks, experienced a sharp rebound following the news, surging over 3% within 24 hours. At the time of publication, BTC was trading at approximately $59,077, buoyed by renewed investor confidence.

这种积极情绪反映在加密货币市场中，其中比特币（BTC）处于领先地位。消息传出后，近几周一直呈下跌趋势的BTC价格出现大幅反弹，24小时内飙升超过3%。截至发稿时，受投资者信心恢复的提振，BTC 交易价格约为 59,077 美元。

The recent price surge has sparked speculation among market participants about whether the downtrend that has plagued the cryptocurrency market in recent months may have finally come to an end. While it is too early to draw definitive conclusions, some analysts are drawing parallels between the current market conditions and the post-halving price action observed in 2016.

最近的价格飙升引发了市场参与者的猜测，即近几个月困扰加密货币市场的下跌趋势是否可能终于结束。虽然现在得出明确结论还为时过早，但一些分析师将当前的市场状况与 2016 年减半后的价格走势进行了比较。

According to Rekt Capital, a prominent trader and analyst, Bitcoin's price has followed a similar trajectory to that observed in the 2016 cycle, characterized by a post-halving drop followed by a period of accumulation and consolidation. After the 2026 halving event, Rekt Capital notes that Bitcoin's price experienced "additional corrections" of up to 17%, lasting as long as three weeks.

著名交易员兼分析师 Rekt Capital 表示，比特币价格遵循与 2016 年周期类似的轨迹，其特点是减半后下跌，随后是一段积累和盘整期。 Rekt Capital 指出，2026 年减半事件发生后，比特币价格经历了高达 17% 的“额外调整”，持续时间长达三周。

While the current price drop has not yet reached the same magnitude as the 17% correction observed in 2016, Rekt Capital suggests that the BTC price could still experience further declines as the standard cycle phenomena play out. However, he also emphasizes that the current price level is likely close to the bottom and that a sustained recovery may be imminent.

尽管目前的价格跌幅尚未达到 2016 年 17% 回调的幅度，但 Rekt Capital 表示，随着标准周期现象的出现，比特币价格仍可能经历进一步下跌。不过，他也强调，目前的价格水平可能已接近底部，持续复苏可能即将到来。

An examination of on-chain metrics provides further insights into the factors driving Bitcoin's recent recovery. The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio, which compares the current price of BTC to the average price at which coins were last moved, currently stands at -6%, according to data from Santiment. Historically, markets have exhibited a tendency to bounce back effectively when the MVRV ratio falls into negative territory.

对链上指标的检查可以进一步深入了解推动比特币近期复苏的因素。根据 Santiment 的数据，短期持有者市场价值与已实现价值 (STH MVRV) 比率（将 BTC 的当前价格与代币上次移动的平均价格进行比较）目前为 -6%。从历史上看，当 MVRV 比率跌至负数区域时，市场就会表现出有效反弹的趋势。

Another metric suggesting the possibility of a market bounce in the near term is the ratio of transactions moving at a loss compared to those moving at a profit. Data from Santiment reveals that the ratio of BTC being moved at a loss is currently higher than transactions of those being moved at a profit. This phenomenon is often associated with market bottoms, as it signals a high level of "crowd capitulation," where investors who have lost confidence in the market sell off their holdings.

表明近期市场反弹可能性的另一个指标是亏损交易与盈利交易的比率。 Santiment的数据显示，目前BTC亏损交易比例高于盈利交易比例。这种现象通常与市场触底有关，因为它标志着高度的“人群投降”，即对市场失去信心的投资者抛售所持股票。

While the cryptocurrency market remains inherently volatile and subject to numerous unpredictable factors, the recent rebound in BTC's price and the supportive on-chain metrics suggest that a sustained recovery may be underway. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions, but the current market conditions provide a glimmer of hope that the long-awaited bull run may be just around the corner.

尽管加密货币市场本质上仍然不稳定，并受到许多不可预测因素的影响，但近期比特币价格的反弹和支持性的链上指标表明，持续复苏可能正在进行中。投资者在做出任何投资决定之前应谨慎行事并进行彻底研究，但当前的市场状况带来了一线希望，即期待已久的牛市可能即将来临。