比特幣的復甦標誌著經濟不確定性下市場的韌性

5月2日，在聯準會決定維持利率不變後，比特幣價格飆升，提振了風險偏好。儘管 FOMC 新聞稿發出的信號不一，但 BTC/USD 仍反彈超過 3%，可能預示著下跌趨勢的結束。分析師指出，比特幣減半週期與 2016 年比特幣減半週期相似，顯示可能會出現進一步調整，但影響不大。負 STH MVRV 和高虧損交易等鏈上指標顯示人群投降，支持市場反彈的概念。

Bitcoin's Resurgence: A Sign of Resilience in an Unpredictable Market

比特幣的復甦：不可預測的市場中的韌性跡象

The cryptocurrency market, known for its volatility and susceptibility to external factors, has recently experienced a surge in optimism following the Federal Reserve's economic policy announcements on May 1st.

以波動性和易受外部因素影響而聞名的加密貨幣市場，在聯準會 5 月 1 日公佈經濟政策後，近期樂觀情緒高漲。

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conveyed its decision to maintain interest rates at 5.25%–5.50%, effectively dashing investors' hopes for rate cuts in 2024. Simultaneously, the Fed announced its plan to reduce the pace of its balance sheet reductions from $60 billion to $25 billion per month, a move interpreted as a slight dovish shift.

聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)宣布維持利率在5.25%–5.50%的決定，有效破滅了投資者2024年降息的希望。美元，此舉被解讀為輕微的鴿派轉變。

The market's response to the FOMC's press release was initially mixed. Some analysts, such as Fejau, a market analyst and active X user, noted the contradictory signals sent by the Fed's stance on balance sheet reductions (dovish) and rate cuts (hawkish). Others, however, viewed the overall message as positive, interpreting it as a sign that the Fed is cautiously optimistic about the economy's resilience.

市場最初對 FOMC 新聞稿的反應不一。市場分析師兼Active X用戶Fejau等一些分析師指出，聯準會在縮減資產負債表（鴿派）和降息（鷹派）方面的立場發出了矛盾的訊號。然而，其他人則認為整體訊息是正面的，並將其解讀為聯準會對經濟彈性持謹慎樂觀態度的跡象。

This positive sentiment was reflected in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the charge. BTC's price, which had been trending downwards in recent weeks, experienced a sharp rebound following the news, surging over 3% within 24 hours. At the time of publication, BTC was trading at approximately $59,077, buoyed by renewed investor confidence.

這種正面情緒反映在加密貨幣市場中，其中比特幣（BTC）處於領先地位。消息傳出後，近幾週一直呈下跌趨勢的BTC價格大幅反彈，24小時內飆漲超過3%。截至發稿時，受投資者信心恢復的提振，BTC 交易價格約為 59,077 美元。

The recent price surge has sparked speculation among market participants about whether the downtrend that has plagued the cryptocurrency market in recent months may have finally come to an end. While it is too early to draw definitive conclusions, some analysts are drawing parallels between the current market conditions and the post-halving price action observed in 2016.

最近的價格飆升引發了市場參與者的猜測，即近幾個月困擾加密貨幣市場的下跌趨勢是否可能終於結束。雖然現在得出明確結論還為時過早，但一些分析師將當前的市場狀況與 2016 年減半後的價格走勢進行了比較。

According to Rekt Capital, a prominent trader and analyst, Bitcoin's price has followed a similar trajectory to that observed in the 2016 cycle, characterized by a post-halving drop followed by a period of accumulation and consolidation. After the 2026 halving event, Rekt Capital notes that Bitcoin's price experienced "additional corrections" of up to 17%, lasting as long as three weeks.

著名交易員兼分析師 Rekt Capital 表示，比特幣價格遵循與 2016 年周期類似的軌跡，其特點是減半後下跌，隨後是一段累積和盤整期。 Rekt Capital 指出，2026 年減半事件發生後，比特幣價格經歷了高達 17% 的“額外調整”，持續時間長達三週。

While the current price drop has not yet reached the same magnitude as the 17% correction observed in 2016, Rekt Capital suggests that the BTC price could still experience further declines as the standard cycle phenomena play out. However, he also emphasizes that the current price level is likely close to the bottom and that a sustained recovery may be imminent.

儘管目前的價格跌幅尚未達到 2016 年 17% 回檔的幅度，但 Rekt Capital 表示，隨著標準週期現象的出現，比特幣價格仍可能經歷進一步下跌。不過，他也強調，目前的價格水準可能已接近底部，持續復甦可能即將到來。

An examination of on-chain metrics provides further insights into the factors driving Bitcoin's recent recovery. The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio, which compares the current price of BTC to the average price at which coins were last moved, currently stands at -6%, according to data from Santiment. Historically, markets have exhibited a tendency to bounce back effectively when the MVRV ratio falls into negative territory.

對鏈上指標的檢查可以進一步深入了解推動比特幣近期復甦的因素。根據 Santiment 的數據，短期持有者市場價值與已實現價值 (STH MVRV) 比率（將 BTC 的當前價格與代幣上次移動的平均價格進行比較）目前為 -6%。從歷史上看，當 MVRV 比率跌至負數區域時，市場就會表現出有效反彈的趨勢。

Another metric suggesting the possibility of a market bounce in the near term is the ratio of transactions moving at a loss compared to those moving at a profit. Data from Santiment reveals that the ratio of BTC being moved at a loss is currently higher than transactions of those being moved at a profit. This phenomenon is often associated with market bottoms, as it signals a high level of "crowd capitulation," where investors who have lost confidence in the market sell off their holdings.

另一個顯示近期市場反彈可能性的指標是虧損交易與獲利交易的比率。 Santiment的數據顯示，目前BTC虧損交易比例高於獲利交易比例。這種現象通常與市場觸底有關，因為它標誌著高度的“人群投降”，即對市場失去信心的投資者拋售所持股票。

While the cryptocurrency market remains inherently volatile and subject to numerous unpredictable factors, the recent rebound in BTC's price and the supportive on-chain metrics suggest that a sustained recovery may be underway. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions, but the current market conditions provide a glimmer of hope that the long-awaited bull run may be just around the corner.

儘管加密貨幣市場本質上仍然不穩定，並受到許多不可預測因素的影響，但近期比特幣價格的反彈和支持性的鏈上指標表明，持續復甦可能正在進行中。投資者在做出任何投資決定之前應謹慎行事並進行徹底研究，但當前的市場狀況帶來了一線希望，即期待已久的牛市可能即將來臨。