比特币第一季度飙升引发减半前的波动性担忧

比特币 (BTC) 在 2024 年第一季度表现强劲，价格上涨 64%，预示着前所未有的市场状况。分析师警告称，尽管投资者情绪中性且清算平衡，但这可能会导致 4 月 20 日减半之前的大幅波动。一些分析师预测阻力位接近第一季度的高点，而另一些分析师则预测减半后可能出现叙事转变。

Bitcoin's Q1 Surge Raises Volatility Concerns Ahead of Halving

比特币第一季度飙升引发减半前的波动性担忧

Bitcoin (BTC) concluded the first quarter of 2024 with a remarkable 64% price increase, marking its third-best quarter in the past three years. This surge, however, has prompted analysts to flag potential volatility fluctuations in the lead-up to the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event.

比特币 (BTC) 在 2024 年第一季度结束时，价格上涨了 64%，这是过去三年来第三个最好的季度。然而，这种激增促使分析师指出，在备受期待的比特币减半事件之前，潜在的波动性波动。

"Expect erratic price action as we approach the halving," cautioned crypto analyst Phoenix Desmond to his significant online following. Desmond's observations stem from Bitcoin's unprecedented trend of consistent outperformance in weekly and monthly closings, signaling unusual market dynamics.

加密货币分析师菲尼克斯·德斯蒙德 (Phoenix Desmond) 对他的大量在线粉丝警告说：“随着减半的临近，预计价格走势将出现不稳定。”德斯蒙德的观察源于比特币在每周和每月收盘中持续表现优异的前所未有的趋势，这表明了不寻常的市场动态。

"Previously, we have never witnessed such sustained weekly, monthly, and quarterly price gains surpassing previous all-time highs, followed by such rapid retractions," Desmond emphasized. Over the past fortnight, Bitcoin has experienced notable surges, including a 6.09% jump from $67,234 to $71,333, according to data from Yahoo Finance.

德斯蒙德强调说：“此前，我们从未见过如此持续的每周、每月和每季度价格涨幅超过之前的历史高点，随后又如此迅速回落。”根据雅虎财经的数据，过去两周，比特币经历了显着的飙升，包括从 67,234 美元上涨 6.09% 至 71,333 美元。

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 20, is fueling speculation of further upward movement in the second quarter of 2024. The halving, which reduces the block reward for Bitcoin miners by half, is expected to create a supply shock and potentially drive demand higher.

即将于 4 月 20 日举行的比特币减半事件，引发了人们对 2024 年第二季度进一步上涨的猜测。减半将使比特币矿工的区块奖励减少一半，预计将造成供应冲击，并可能推动需求更高。

Despite the optimistic outlook, investor sentiment towards Bitcoin's short-term trajectory remains largely neutral. Data from CoinGlass indicates a balanced liquidation rate between short and long positions over the past 24 hours, indicating uncertainty among market participants.

尽管前景乐观，但投资者对比特币短期走势的情绪基本保持中性。 CoinGlass的数据显示，过去24小时空头和多头头寸的清算率均衡，表明市场参与者存在不确定性。

Should Bitcoin's price witness a 1.5% rise to $66,687, approximately $57.08 million in short positions would be liquidated. Conversely, a 1% decline to $65,013 would trigger liquidations worth $35.14 million.

如果比特币价格上涨 1.5% 至 66,687 美元，大约 5708 万美元的空头头寸将被清算。相反，下跌 1% 至 65,013 美元将引发价值 3514 万美元的清算。

Prominent crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggests that Bitcoin's trajectory may deviate from its previous quarter's performance, potentially encountering resistance levels near the first quarter's all-time highs. "BTC could consolidate between $60k and $70k for the foreseeable future, leading into the halving and beyond," Rekt Capital opined.

著名加密货币分析师 Rekt Capital 表示，比特币的走势可能会偏离上一季度的表现，可能会在第一季度历史高点附近遇到阻力位。 Rekt Capital 认为：“在可预见的未来，比特币可能会在 6 万美元至 7 万美元之间盘整，从而导致减半及之后的时间。”

While the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January by leading asset management companies has fueled interest and speculation, some analysts anticipate a shift in market narrative. Michael van de Poppe of MN trading consultancy believes that other factors may gain prominence.

尽管领先的资产管理公司在一月份推出现货比特币 ETF 引发了人们的兴趣和猜测，但一些分析师预计市场叙事将发生转变。 MN 交易咨询公司的 Michael van de Poppe 认为，其他因素可能会变得更加重要。

"Likely not Bitcoin," van de Poppe stated to his vast following. "Pre-halving interest in Bitcoin and the launch of spot ETFs have brought in additional liquidity. This is now slowing down and returning to normal price levels, after which a new narrative is likely to emerge."

“可能不是比特币，”范德波普对他的广大追随者说道。 “对比特币的兴趣减半以及现货 ETF 的推出带来了额外的流动性。这种情况现在正在放缓并恢复到正常的价格水平，之后可能会出现新的情况。”

As the Bitcoin halving draws near, analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring the market's response to this pivotal event. While volatility is anticipated, the potential for further appreciation remains a subject of ongoing debate and speculation.

随着比特币减半的临近，分析师和投资者都在密切关注市场对这一关键事件的反应。尽管预计会出现波动，但进一步升值的潜力仍然是持续争论和猜测的主题。