比特币（BTC）的价格下跌低于50周的EMA，将跌至4.5万美元的风险增加

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）4月2日宣布10％的普遍进口关税引发了立即的市场反应，增加了全球经济紧张局势，并影响了传统和加密市场。

U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of a 10% universal import tariff has sparked immediate reactions in the market, heightening global economic tensions and impacting both traditional and crypto markets.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）4月2日宣布了10％的普遍进口关税，这激发了市场的立即反应，加剧了全球经济紧张局势，并影响了传统和加密市场。

As reported by CoinChapter previously, the new tariffs, part of an executive order signed by President Trump, place a 10% tariff on all goods imported from China and 25% on U.S. metal imports.

正如Coinchapter先前报道的那样，特朗普总统签署的行政命令的一部分的新关税对从中国进口的所有商品签发了10％的关税，而美国金属进口量则为25％。

China will face tariffs as high as 54% under the new policy, which the administration calls “Liberation Day.” The move is meant to help U.S. industries but may worsen the ongoing trade war and slow down the global economy.

在新政策下，中国将面临高达54％的关税，政府称之为“解放日”。此举旨在帮助美国行业，但可能会加剧持续的贸易战并减慢全球经济的速度。

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slid over 4% on Tuesday, while Dow Jones futures tumbled more than 1,000 points. Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,000 on Tuesday before pulling back. The world’s leading cryptocurrency is now trading around $83,000 and faces pressure from rising macroeconomic uncertainty.

标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100期货在周二下跌4％以上，而道琼斯的期货则跌幅超过1,000点。比特币在星期二短暂飙升至87,000美元，然后退回。现在，全球领先的加密货币正在交易约83,000美元，面临宏观经济不确定性上升的压力。

Bitcoin Is Now At Risk Of Drop As Key Support And RSI Turn Bearish

比特币现在有掉落的风险，因为关键支持和RSI转向看跌

Bitcoin is currently trading near its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76,619. This level has acted as support since early 2023. The cryptocurrency is now trading at $83,644, slightly above this crucial zone.

比特币目前的交易价格接近其50周的指数移动平均线（EMA），为76,619美元。自2023年初以来，该水平一直是支持。该加密货币现在的交易价格为83,644美元，略高于该关键区域。

If Bitcoin's price closes below the 50-week EMA, it could continue moving lower toward the 200-week EMA, which is located at $45,623. Such a decline would amount to approximately 40% from the current price levels.

如果比特币的价格下跌了50周的EMA，则可能会继续向下移动200周EMA，该EMA的价格为45,623美元。这样的下降将比当前价格水平约为40％。

As evident from the chart, Bitcoin has broken through a rising trendline that originated in late 2022. This breakout suggests a weakening in the price structure.

从图表中可以明显看出，比特币因源自2022年底的上升趋势线而破裂。这种突破表明价格结构削弱了。

In past cycles, when this type of support was lost, Bitcoin often dropped to the 200-week EMA before finding support again. At least, that’s what happened in the 2015 cycle.

在过去的周期中，当这种支持丢失时，比特币经常下降到200周的EMA，然后再次找到支持。至少，这就是2015年周期中发生的事情。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now at 47.79, which is below the neutral 50 level. This reading indicates that momentum is shifting in favor of bears.

相对强度指数（RSI）现在为47.79，低于中性50级。该读物表明，动力正在转移，而转移了熊。

The RSI's moving average is still at 57.64, showing a clear shift in the RSI. If the RSI manages to stay below the 50 level, it could continue putting pressure on the price to move lower.

RSI的移动平均值仍为57.64，显示了RSI的明显变化。如果RSI设法保持在50级以下，则可能会继续对价格施加压力，以使下降。

President Trump's Tariffs On China Boost Chances Of US Recession

特朗普总统对中国的关税增加了我们衰退的机会

President Donald Trump's imposition of sweeping tariffs has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. recession.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统强加关税，这加剧了人们对美国衰退的潜在衰退的担忧。

Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now reflect a greater-than-50% probability of an economic downturn this year, a notable escalation from less than 20% at the year's beginning.

Polymarket和Kalshi等预测平台现在反映出今年经济衰退的可能性大于50％，这是一年中不到20％的显着升级。

Analysts are divided on the implications of these tariffs.

分析师对这些关税的含义有所分歧。

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research suggests that a recession could ultimately benefit the U.S. market despite concerns over low growth and a $33 trillion risk to global trade. He advises global portfolio managers to prioritize U.S. equities, highlighting factors like full employment and energy independence.

Yardeni Research的Ed Yardeni表明，尽管担心低增长和33万亿美元的全球贸易风险，但经济衰退最终可以使美国市场受益。他建议全球投资组合经理对美国股票的优先级优先，强调了诸如充分就业和能源独立性之类的因素。

"The U.S. is in the best shape to emerge quickly and strongly from any global downturn, rendering it ideal for global investors to concentrate their portfolio on U.S. equities during this period," Yardeni said.

Yardeni说：“美国的最佳状态是迅速而强烈地从任何全球衰退中迅速出现，这对于全球投资者来说是在此期间将其投资组合集中在美国股票上的理想选择。”

However, economist Stephen Miller, co-founder of Node, estimates a better-than-50% chance of a global recession in 2025, tying it to the prospect of high inflation and low growth, also known as stagflation, similar to the 1970s.

然而，节点的联合创始人经济学家史蒂芬·米勒（Stephen Miller）估计，2025年全球经济衰退的机会比50％的机会更好，这将其与高通货膨胀和低增长的前景（也称为停滞不见）息息相关，类似于1970年代。

"I think there's a better-than-50% chance we'll be in a global recession by 2025," Miller said.

米勒说：“我认为，到2025年，我们将在全球衰退中有比50％的机会更好。”

These emerging recession signals bode poorly for crypto in the short term as investors typically pull out of riskier assets, including Bitcoin, during times of economic uncertainty.

这些新兴的经济衰退信号在短期内对加密货币的兆头较差，因为在经济不确定性时期，投资者通常会退出包括比特币在内的风险较高的资产。