比特幣（BTC）的價格下跌低於50週的EMA，將跌至4.5萬美元的風險增加

美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）4月2日宣布10％的普遍進口關稅引發了立即的市場反應，增加了全球經濟緊張局勢，並影響了傳統和加密市場。

U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of a 10% universal import tariff has sparked immediate reactions in the market, heightening global economic tensions and impacting both traditional and crypto markets.

美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）4月2日宣布了10％的普遍進口關稅，這激發了市場的立即反應，加劇了全球經濟緊張局勢，並影響了傳統和加密市場。

As reported by CoinChapter previously, the new tariffs, part of an executive order signed by President Trump, place a 10% tariff on all goods imported from China and 25% on U.S. metal imports.

正如Coinchapter先前報導的那樣，特朗普總統簽署的行政命令的一部分的新關稅對從中國進口的所有商品簽發了10％的關稅，而美國金屬進口量則為25％。

China will face tariffs as high as 54% under the new policy, which the administration calls “Liberation Day.” The move is meant to help U.S. industries but may worsen the ongoing trade war and slow down the global economy.

在新政策下，中國將面臨高達54％的關稅，政府稱之為“解放日”。此舉旨在幫助美國行業，但可能會加劇持續的貿易戰並減慢全球經濟的速度。

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slid over 4% on Tuesday, while Dow Jones futures tumbled more than 1,000 points. Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,000 on Tuesday before pulling back. The world’s leading cryptocurrency is now trading around $83,000 and faces pressure from rising macroeconomic uncertainty.

標準普爾500指數和納斯達克100期貨在周二下跌4％以上，而道瓊斯的期貨則跌幅超過1,000點。比特幣在星期二短暫飆升至87,000美元，然後退回。現在，全球領先的加密貨幣正在交易約83,000美元，面臨宏觀經濟不確定性上升的壓力。

Bitcoin Is Now At Risk Of Drop As Key Support And RSI Turn Bearish

比特幣現在有掉落的風險，因為關鍵支持和RSI轉向看跌

Bitcoin is currently trading near its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76,619. This level has acted as support since early 2023. The cryptocurrency is now trading at $83,644, slightly above this crucial zone.

比特幣目前的交易價格接近其50週的指數移動平均線（EMA），為76,619美元。自2023年初以來，該水平一直是支持。該加密貨幣現在的交易價格為83,644美元，略高於該關鍵區域。

If Bitcoin's price closes below the 50-week EMA, it could continue moving lower toward the 200-week EMA, which is located at $45,623. Such a decline would amount to approximately 40% from the current price levels.

如果比特幣的價格下跌了50週的EMA，則可能會繼續向下移動200週EMA，該EMA的價格為45,623美元。這樣的下降將比當前價格水平約為40％。

As evident from the chart, Bitcoin has broken through a rising trendline that originated in late 2022. This breakout suggests a weakening in the price structure.

從圖表中可以明顯看出，比特幣因源自2022年底的上升趨勢線而破裂。這種突破表明價格結構削弱了。

In past cycles, when this type of support was lost, Bitcoin often dropped to the 200-week EMA before finding support again. At least, that’s what happened in the 2015 cycle.

在過去的周期中，當這種支持丟失時，比特幣經常下降到200週的EMA，然後再次找到支持。至少，這就是2015年周期中發生的事情。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now at 47.79, which is below the neutral 50 level. This reading indicates that momentum is shifting in favor of bears.

相對強度指數（RSI）現在為47.79，低於中性50級。該讀物表明，動力正在轉移，而轉移了熊。

The RSI's moving average is still at 57.64, showing a clear shift in the RSI. If the RSI manages to stay below the 50 level, it could continue putting pressure on the price to move lower.

RSI的移動平均值仍為57.64，顯示了RSI的明顯變化。如果RSI設法保持在50級以下，則可能會繼續對價格施加壓力，以使下降。

President Trump's Tariffs On China Boost Chances Of US Recession

特朗普總統對中國的關稅增加了我們衰退的機會

President Donald Trump's imposition of sweeping tariffs has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. recession.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統強加關稅，這加劇了人們對美國衰退的潛在衰退的擔憂。

Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi now reflect a greater-than-50% probability of an economic downturn this year, a notable escalation from less than 20% at the year's beginning.

Polymarket和Kalshi等預測平台現在反映出今年經濟衰退的可能性大於50％，這是一年中不到20％的顯著升級。

Analysts are divided on the implications of these tariffs.

分析師對這些關稅的含義有所分歧。

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research suggests that a recession could ultimately benefit the U.S. market despite concerns over low growth and a $33 trillion risk to global trade. He advises global portfolio managers to prioritize U.S. equities, highlighting factors like full employment and energy independence.

Yardeni Research的Ed Yardeni表明，儘管擔心低增長和33萬億美元的全球貿易風險，但經濟衰退最終可以使美國市場受益。他建議全球投資組合經理對美國股票的優先級優先，強調了諸如充分就業和能源獨立性之類的因素。

"The U.S. is in the best shape to emerge quickly and strongly from any global downturn, rendering it ideal for global investors to concentrate their portfolio on U.S. equities during this period," Yardeni said.

Yardeni說：“美國的最佳狀態是迅速而強烈地從任何全球衰退中迅速出現，這對於全球投資者來說是在此期間將其投資組合集中在美國股票上的理想選擇。”

However, economist Stephen Miller, co-founder of Node, estimates a better-than-50% chance of a global recession in 2025, tying it to the prospect of high inflation and low growth, also known as stagflation, similar to the 1970s.

然而，節點的聯合創始人經濟學家史蒂芬·米勒（Stephen Miller）估計，2025年全球經濟衰退的機會比50％的機會更好，這將其與高通貨膨脹和低增長的前景（也稱為停滯不見）息息相關，類似於1970年代。

"I think there's a better-than-50% chance we'll be in a global recession by 2025," Miller said.

米勒說：“我認為，到2025年，我們將在全球衰退中有比50％的機會更好。”

These emerging recession signals bode poorly for crypto in the short term as investors typically pull out of riskier assets, including Bitcoin, during times of economic uncertainty.

這些新興的經濟衰退信號在短期內對加密貨幣的兆頭較差，因為在經濟不確定性時期，投資者通常會退出包括比特幣在內的風險較高的資產。