比特幣第一季飆升引發減半前的波動性擔憂

比特幣 (BTC) 在 2024 年第一季表現強勁，價格上漲 64%，預示著前所未有的市場狀況。分析師警告稱，儘管投資者情緒中性且清算平衡，但這可能會導致 4 月 20 日減半之前的大幅波動。一些分析師預測阻力位接近第一季的高點，而另一些分析師則預測減半後可能出現敘事轉變。

Bitcoin's Q1 Surge Raises Volatility Concerns Ahead of Halving

比特幣第一季飆升引發減半前的波動性擔憂

Bitcoin (BTC) concluded the first quarter of 2024 with a remarkable 64% price increase, marking its third-best quarter in the past three years. This surge, however, has prompted analysts to flag potential volatility fluctuations in the lead-up to the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event.

比特幣 (BTC) 在 2024 年第一季結束時，價格上漲了 64%，這是過去三年來第三個最好的季度。然而，這種激增促使分析師指出，在備受期待的比特幣減半之前，潛在的波動性波動。

"Expect erratic price action as we approach the halving," cautioned crypto analyst Phoenix Desmond to his significant online following. Desmond's observations stem from Bitcoin's unprecedented trend of consistent outperformance in weekly and monthly closings, signaling unusual market dynamics.

加密貨幣分析師菲尼克斯·德斯蒙德 (Phoenix Desmond) 對他的大量在線粉絲警告說：“隨著減半的臨近，預計價格走勢將出現不穩定。”德斯蒙德的觀察源於比特幣在每周和每月收盤中持續表現優異的前所未有的趨勢，這表明了不尋常的市場動態。

"Previously, we have never witnessed such sustained weekly, monthly, and quarterly price gains surpassing previous all-time highs, followed by such rapid retractions," Desmond emphasized. Over the past fortnight, Bitcoin has experienced notable surges, including a 6.09% jump from $67,234 to $71,333, according to data from Yahoo Finance.

德斯蒙德強調：“此前，我們從未見過如此持續的每週、每月和每季度價格漲幅超過之前的歷史高點，隨後又如此迅速回落。”根據雅虎財經的數據，過去兩週，比特幣經歷了顯著的飆升，包括從 67,234 美元上漲 6.09% 至 71,333 美元。

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 20, is fueling speculation of further upward movement in the second quarter of 2024. The halving, which reduces the block reward for Bitcoin miners by half, is expected to create a supply shock and potentially drive demand higher.

即將於4 月20 日舉行的比特幣減半事件，引發了人們對2024 年第二季度進一步上漲的猜測。減半將使比特幣礦工的區塊獎勵減少一半，預計將造成供應衝擊，並可能推動需求更高。

Despite the optimistic outlook, investor sentiment towards Bitcoin's short-term trajectory remains largely neutral. Data from CoinGlass indicates a balanced liquidation rate between short and long positions over the past 24 hours, indicating uncertainty among market participants.

儘管前景樂觀，但投資者對比特幣短期走勢的情緒基本上保持中性。 CoinGlass的數據顯示，過去24小時空頭和多頭部位的清算率均衡，顯示市場參與者存在不確定性。

Should Bitcoin's price witness a 1.5% rise to $66,687, approximately $57.08 million in short positions would be liquidated. Conversely, a 1% decline to $65,013 would trigger liquidations worth $35.14 million.

如果比特幣價格上漲 1.5% 至 66,687 美元，大約 5,708 萬美元的空頭部位將被清算。相反，下跌 1% 至 65,013 美元將引發價值 3,514 萬美元的清算。

Prominent crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggests that Bitcoin's trajectory may deviate from its previous quarter's performance, potentially encountering resistance levels near the first quarter's all-time highs. "BTC could consolidate between $60k and $70k for the foreseeable future, leading into the halving and beyond," Rekt Capital opined.

著名加密貨幣分析師 Rekt Capital 表示，比特幣的走勢可能會偏離上一季的表現，可能會在第一季歷史高點附近遇到阻力位。 Rekt Capital 認為：“在可預見的未來，比特幣可能會在 6 萬美元至 7 萬美元之間盤整，從而導致減半及之後的時間。”

While the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January by leading asset management companies has fueled interest and speculation, some analysts anticipate a shift in market narrative. Michael van de Poppe of MN trading consultancy believes that other factors may gain prominence.

儘管領先的資產管理公司在一月份推出現貨比特幣 ETF 引發了人們的興趣和猜測，但一些分析師預計市場敘事將會轉變。 MN 交易諮詢公司的 Michael van de Poppe 認為，其他因素可能會變得更加重要。

"Likely not Bitcoin," van de Poppe stated to his vast following. "Pre-halving interest in Bitcoin and the launch of spot ETFs have brought in additional liquidity. This is now slowing down and returning to normal price levels, after which a new narrative is likely to emerge."

「可能不是比特幣，」范德波普對他的廣大追隨者說道。 “對比特幣的興趣減半以及現貨 ETF 的推出帶來了額外的流動性。這種情況現在正在放緩並恢復到正常的價格水平，之後可能會出現新的情況。”

As the Bitcoin halving draws near, analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring the market's response to this pivotal event. While volatility is anticipated, the potential for further appreciation remains a subject of ongoing debate and speculation.

隨著比特幣減半的臨近，分析師和投資者都在密切關注市場對此關鍵事件的反應。儘管預計會出現波動，但進一步升值的潛力仍然是持續爭論和猜測的主題。