比特币价格突然飙升，突破之前的历史高点并攀升至 106,000 美元以上

在特斯拉亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克煽动对美元未来的怀疑的帮助下，比特币价格自八月低点以来已经上涨了一倍多。

Bitcoin has suddenly surged higher, passing its previous all-time high and climbing to over $106,000 as incoming U.S. president Donald Trump confirms his plan for a bitcoin game-changer.

随着即将上任的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普确认其改变比特币游戏规则的计划，比特币突然飙升，突破了之前的历史高点，并攀升至 106,000 美元以上。

The bitcoin price has more than doubled since dropping to August lows, helped by Tesla billionaire Elon Musk fanning flames of doubt over the future of the U.S. dollar.

在特斯拉亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克煽动对美元未来的怀疑的帮助下，比特币价格自八月低点以来已经上涨了一倍多。

Now, as a leak reveals Russia could be poised to beat the U.S. to a bitcoin reserve, the Federal Reserve has been warned its "biggest nightmare" could come true in 2025.

现在，有消息称俄罗斯可能会在比特币储备方面击败美国，美联储已被警告其“最大的噩梦”可能会在 2025 年成为现实。

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell could see the Fed's "nightmare" scenario play out next ... [+] year—while the bitcoin price surges to a fresh all-time high.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔可能会看到美联储的“噩梦”场景将在明年上演，而比特币价格将飙升至历史新高。

"We believe stagflation is coming in 2025, the Fed’s biggest nightmare." analysts with The Kobeissi Letter posted to Axios, referring to a combination of economic stagnation and soaring inflation.

“我们认为滞胀将于 2025 年到来，这是美联储最大的噩梦。”分析师在 Axios 上发表了《Kobeissi Letter》，提到了经济停滞和通胀飙升的双重影响。

Kobeissi analysts pointed to a report from asset management giant Apollo which predicted "a rebound in inflation in 2025 and not a softening to justify Fed [interest rate] cuts."

Koheissi分析师指出，资产管理巨头Apollo的一份报告预测，“2025年通胀将反弹，而不是疲软，从而证明美联储降息是合理的。”

"The probability is rising that the Fed may have to raise interest rates in 2025," Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist, wrote in the report, asking: "Will we see a repeat of the 1970s with the Fed easing policy too quickly, triggering a rise in inflation in 2025?"

Apollo首席经济学家Torsten Sløk在报告中写道：“美联储在2025年加息的可能性正在上升。”他问道：“我们是否会看到1970年代的情况重演，美联储过快地放松政策，引发2025 年通胀会上升吗？”

Last week, the influential billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned of a looming "debt crisis" which he expects will trigger a sharp decline in the value of the U.S. dollar.

上周，颇具影响力的亿万富翁投资者雷·达利奥(Ray Dalio)警告称，“债务危机”迫在眉睫，他预计这将引发美元大幅贬值。

U.S. debt has soared over recent years, topping $34 trillion at the beginning of 2024, with Covid and lockdown stimulus measures contributing to massive government spending and helping to send inflation spiraling out of control in 2022.

近年来，美国债务飙升，2024 年初突破 34 万亿美元，新冠疫情和封锁刺激措施导致政府巨额支出，并导致 2022 年通胀失控。

Inflation of over 10% forced the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at a historical clip, pushing up debt interest payments and fueling fears of a "death spiral."

超过10%的通货膨胀迫使美联储以历史性的速度加息，推高了债务利息支付并加剧了对“死亡螺旋”的担忧。

This week, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point, despite data showing inflation ticked higher last week, with a Bloomberg survey of economists finding a consensus for three further interest rate cuts in 2025.

尽管数据显示上周通胀小幅走高，但人们普遍预计美联储本周将降息 25 个基点，彭博社对经济学家的调查发现，美联储在 2025 年进一步降息三次已达成共识。

However, a Financial Times poll of economists found the Fed will next year take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to fears the Trump administration’s policies that include sweeping tariffs, deportations, and cuts to taxes and regulations, could stoke higher inflation.

然而，《金融时报》对经济学家的一项民意调查发现，由于担心特朗普政府的全面关税、驱逐出境以及削减税收和监管等政策可能会引发更高的通胀，美联储明年将在降息方面采取更加谨慎的态度。

"Inflation has come down more painlessly than I and most people had expected, but I think we may still be seeing that the last bit [getting to target] will be a little harder, and so that certainly is an unlikely environment for the Fed to be in a hurry to reduce rates," Jonathan Wright, a former Fed economist now at Johns Hopkins University, told the FT.

“通胀的下降比我和大多数人的预期更加轻松，但我认为我们可能仍然会看到最后一点（达到目标）会有点困难，因此对于美联储来说，这肯定是一个不太可能的环境。急于降低利率，”现任约翰·霍普金斯大学前美联储经济学家乔纳森·赖特 (Jonathan Wright) 告诉英国《金融时报》。

Expectations of this week's Fed interest rate cut have helped push the bitcoin price higher, with analysts predicting momentum could help it climb even higher in coming weeks.

对美联储本周降息的预期帮助推高了比特币价格，分析师预测势头可能会帮助比特币在未来几周内进一步攀升。

Bitcoin's "move into all-time high territory, including this morning's push above $106,000, confirms the bullish bias," Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro's chief market analyst, said in emailed comments.

FxPro 首席市场分析师 Alex Kuptsikevich 在电子邮件评论中表示，比特币“进入历史新高，包括今天上午突破 106,000 美元，证实了看涨偏见”。

"This is especially important after a three-week consolidation near the $100,000 level. An acceleration in growth is now likely if unexpected news from the traditional financial markets doesn't stop this rally.

“在经过三周接近 10 万美元的水平盘整之后，这一点尤其重要。如果来自传统金融市场的意外消息不能阻止这一反弹，那么现在增长可能会加速。