比特币的价格标志着成熟

ETF和机构正在抢购比特币，但谁在另一端推动价格下跌呢？它比你想象的更复杂。

The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC has sparked a burning question: who's driving down the price of Bitcoin despite the massive demand signaled by ETF inflows?

美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 最近批准现货比特币 ETF 引发了一个紧迫的问题：尽管 ETF 流入表明需求巨大，但谁在压低比特币价格？

To unravel this mystery, we need to zoom out and examine the broader market dynamics at play.

为了解开这个谜团，我们需要缩小范围并检查更广泛的市场动态。

While ETF inflows are certainly a key factor in driving up the price of Bitcoin, there's another crucial dynamic that often gets overlooked: the selling pressure.

虽然 ETF 流入肯定是推高比特币价格的关键因素，但还有另一个经常被忽视的关键因素：抛售压力。

So, who exactly is offloading their Bitcoin and putting downward pressure on the price?

那么，到底是谁在抛售比特币并对价格施加下行压力呢？

One group that's known to sell during bull markets is the early adopters, or OGs. These seasoned holders collectively own more BTC than all the ETFs combined—ten times more, to be precise.

众所周知，在牛市期间出售股票的群体是早期采用者（OG）。这些经验丰富的持有者总共拥有的 BTC 数量比所有 ETF 的总和还多——准确地说是十倍。

This selling behavior is not unusual and has been observed throughout Bitcoin's history.

这种抛售行为并不罕见，并且在比特币的整个历史中都被观察到。

Why do they sell?

他们为什么要卖？

Various factors come into play, such as bills piling up or the desire to cash in on life-changing profits sooner rather than later.

各种因素都会发挥作用，例如堆积的账单或希望尽早兑现改变生活的利润。

It's also important to note that BTC whales are more likely to be early tech enthusiasts who got lucky with their timing, either through mining or bold purchases, rather than sage oracles thinking in terms of centuries.

同样重要的是要注意，比特币鲸鱼更有可能是早期的科技爱好者，他们通过挖矿或大胆购买而幸运地抓住了时机，而不是从几个世纪的角度思考的圣人。

But there's more to the story.

但这个故事还有更多内容。

The introduction of paper BTC (through CME and Cboe in December 2017) has dramatically transformed the market landscape, especially when considering its interaction with the 2024 ETF launch.

纸币 BTC 的推出（2017 年 12 月通过 CME 和 Cboe）极大地改变了市场格局，特别是考虑到它与 2024 年 ETF 推出的相互作用。

Futures markets allow you to buy Bitcoin on paper. In other words, you can get Bitcoin exposure from sellers who don't actually have BTC, only USD. This ultimately diverts demand from real to paper BTC.

期货市场允许您购买纸质比特币。换句话说，您可以从实际上没有 BTC、只有美元的卖家那里获得比特币敞口。这最终将需求从实物比特币转移到纸质比特币。

In the past, when Bitcoin experienced price rallies, the selling pressure was primarily driven by OGs and the newly minted coins from miners. However, today, paper BTC plays a pivotal role.

过去，当比特币价格上涨时，抛售压力主要是由 OG 和矿工新铸造的比特币推动的。然而，如今，纸质比特币发挥着举足轻重的作用。

Despite spot holders holding firm, the bear market of 2022 was largely influenced by an influx of paper BTC (The first Bitcoin Futures ETF (ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF) was approved in October 2021)

尽管现货持有者坚守阵地，但 2022 年的熊市很大程度上受到了纸质 BTC 涌入的影响（第一个比特币期货 ETF（ProShares 比特币策略 ETF）于 2021 年 10 月获得批准）

Now, let's put two and two together and try to understand how this might be impacting the price of Bitcoin.

现在，让我们将两个和两个放在一起，尝试了解这可能如何影响比特币的价格。

Investors who buy into BTC ETFs are not necessarily buying physical Bitcoin. Instead, they might be buying shares of a fund that holds Bitcoin or gains exposure through derivatives. This can divert demand away from the actual Bitcoin market.

购买 BTC ETF 的投资者不一定是购买实物比特币。相反，他们可能会购买持有比特币的基金股票或通过衍生品获得敞口。这可能会将需求从实际的比特币市场转移。

BTC ETFs often use futures contracts and other derivatives to gain exposure to Bitcoin prices. These financial instruments do not require the holder to buy actual Bitcoin, thereby increasing the supply of “paper BTC.”

BTC ETF 通常使用期货合约和其他衍生品来获得比特币价格的敞口。这些金融工具不需要持有者购买实际的比特币，从而增加了“纸质比特币”的供应。

This increase in paper BTC supply can meet the demand of new investors without pushing up the price of actual Bitcoin. With more investors able to gain Bitcoin exposure through ETFs and futures rather than buying physical Bitcoin, the demand pressure on the actual Bitcoin market is reduced.

纸质比特币供应量的增加可以满足新投资者的需求，而不会推高实际比特币的价格。随着越来越多的投资者能够通过 ETF 和期货获得比特币敞口，而不是购买实物比特币，实际比特币市场的需求压力就会减轻。

This can suppress the price of Bitcoin, as the influx of new investment money is channeled into financial products rather than buying the real asset.

这可能会抑制比特币的价格，因为新的投资资金的流入会被引导到金融产品而不是购买实物资产。

If the market perceives that most new demand is being met through paper BTC rather than actual purchases, it can influence trader behavior; sellers might be more willing to sell at lower prices, anticipating that demand is being absorbed by derivatives rather than spot markets.

如果市场认为大多数新需求是通过纸质比特币而不是实际购买来满足的，那么它可能会影响交易者的行为；卖家可能更愿意以较低的价格出售，因为他们预计需求将被衍生品而不是现货市场所吸收。

This price suppression through derivatives and futures isn't exclusive to BTC; it has played out in several other asset classes.

这种通过衍生品和期货进行价格压制的方式并非 BTC 所独有。它已经在其他几个资产类别中发挥了作用。