比特币最近的价格撤退创造了一个战略入口处

尽管宏观经济的逆风，该公司仍强调了技术和基本指标的汇合，这指出了长期投资者的巨大机会。

Bitcoin’s recent price retreat has created a strategic entry point, according to Tide Capital, as the firm highlighted several technical and fundamental indicators that signal a potential market bottom. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and pessimism, the firm believes that current market dynamics and institutional activity are setting the stage for a substantial recovery rally in the latter half of 2025.

根据Tide Capital的说法，比特币最近的价格撤退创造了一个战略切入点，因为该公司强调了几种表明潜在市场底层的技术和基本指标。尽管宏观经济的逆风和悲观主义，该公司认为，当前的市场动态和机构活动为2025年后半段的重大恢复集会奠定了基础。

Specifically, U.S. economic turbulence has intensified in early 2025, resulting in sharp corrections across major asset classes. The Nasdaq Index has tumbled -15% from recent highs, while Bitcoin has fallen over -25% as traders engage in frantic flight-to-safety flows.

具体而言，美国的经济动荡在2025年初加剧，导致主要资产类别的彻底纠正。纳斯达克指数比最近的高点跌幅-15％，而随着贸易商从事疯狂的航班安全流，比特币下降了-25％。

Data from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showcases a significant revision in Q1 2025 U.S. real GDP growth projections, dropping sharply from 3.2% to -1.8%. This signals weak short-term economic performance and has raised concerns about a potential recession.

来自亚特兰大美联储的GDPNOW模型的数据显示了第1季度2025年美国实际GDP增长预测的重大修订，从3.2％急剧下降到-1.8％。这表明短期经济表现较弱，并引起了人们对潜在衰退的担忧。

The risk of recession has escalated amidst these growth concerns. Polymarket data cited by Tide Capital reveals that the market-implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has risen to 35%. This marks an increase of 13 percentage points since the beginning of the year, highlighting intensifying fears of a recession and increased defensive positioning among investors.

在这些增长问题中，衰退的风险已升级。 Tide Capital引用的Polymarket数据表明，2025年美国衰退的市场可能性上升至35％。这标志着自今年年初以来增加了13个百分点，这强调了人们对经济衰退的担忧和投资者之间的防御地位增加。

In response to this economic weakness, Tide Capital observes a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. Goldman Sachs has recently raised its gold price target to $3,300, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty and a booming demand for risk hedges.

为了应对这种经济弱点，潮汐资本观察到对避风港资产的需求激增。高盛（Goldman Sachs）最近将其黄金价格目标提高到了3,300美元，这反映了经济不确定性的提高和对风险对冲的繁荣需求。

However, despite experiencing sharp corrections of over -50% from recent highs, markets appear to have fully integrated negative expectations, according to Tide Capital. The firm points out that U.S. equity CTA short positions have reached a two-year extreme, exceeding $30 billion, as reported by Goldman Sachs. This signals peak bearish sentiment and suggests reduced downside risks moving forward.

然而，尽管潮汐资本称，尽管最近高点的急剧更正超过-50％，但市场似乎完全融合了负面期望。该公司指出，正如高盛（Goldman Sachs）报道的那样，美国股票CTA的短期职位已达到两年，超过了300亿美元。这表明看跌的峰值情绪，并表明降低了下行风险向前发展。

The unexpected decision by the Federal Reserve during its March FOMC meeting to slow the pace of quantitative tightening—by reducing monthly Treasury roll-off caps from 25 billion to 5 billion—has significantly bolstered market confidence. This shift has contributed to a rebound in risk assets, noted Tide Capital.

美联储在3月的FOMC会议上的意外决定，以减慢定量收紧的步伐，通过将每月的国库倒车从250亿降低到50亿美元，这显着增强了市场信心。潮汐资本指出，这种转变导致了风险资产的反弹。

While acknowledging the persistence of near-term challenges, Tide Capital emphasizes that current economic data does not indicate an inevitable crisis. With extreme pessimism already reflected in asset prices, any minor economic improvements could swiftly overturn prevailing recession narratives and ignite a robust recovery rally.

在承认近期挑战的持续存在的同时，潮汐资本强调，当前的经济数据并不表明不可避免的危机。由于已经反映出资产价格的极端悲观主义，任何较小的经济改善都可以迅速推翻盛会的衰退叙事，并点燃强大的恢复集会。

According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen five consecutive weeks of outflow since February 10, totaling $5.5 billion.

根据Coinglass的数据，自2月10日以来，比特币现场ETF连续五个星期的流出，总计55亿美元。

This sustained outflow period is noteworthy as it usually coincides with market bottoms and presents significant long-term entry opportunities for investors, according to Tide Capital.

根据Tide Capital的说法，这种持续的流出期值得注意，因为它通常与市场底层相吻合，并为投资者提供了很大的长期进入机会。

Moreover, Tide Capital highlights that BTC perpetual funding rates on Binance have dropped below 5% (7-day average), levels not seen since September 2024, as reported by The Block. This decline in funding rates is indicative of weak bullish momentum and peak bearish sentiment—classic signs of a market bottom forming.

此外，潮汐资本强调，BTC永久融资率降至5％以下（平均7天）以来，自2024年9月以来未见水平，如该街区所报道。资金率的下降表明，看涨的动力和峰值看跌感情，这是市场底层形成的周期迹象。

This aligns with the observations of prominent figures in the crypto sphere, such as Galaxy's Mike Novogratz, who has also pointed to a potential market bottom in the first quarter of 2025.

这与加密球体中突出数字的观察结果相吻合，例如Galaxy的Mike Novogratz，他还指出了2025年第一季度的潜在市场底层。

Despite BTC's current price being off its highs, stablecoin supplies continue to break records, surpassing 230 billion—a 30 billion increase since the start of 2025. As the backbone of liquidity within the crypto markets, the expansion of stablecoin reserves signals institutional readiness to capitalize on the next upcycle, providing fuel for future growth.

尽管BTC目前的价格降低了，但Stablecoin的供应仍在打破记录，超过了2,300亿美元，自2025年初以来增长了300亿美元。作为加密货币市场中流动性的支柱，StableCoin的流动性骨干的扩大，STABLECOIN的扩大信号保留了信号的综合状况，可以使下一个上次上升的燃料增长，从而为未来的增长提供了资金。

Tide Capital concludes that BTC’s current environment—marked by depressed funding rates, crowded shorts, and stablecoin accumulation—creates a rare buying opportunity. “Any macro improvement or policy catalyst could trigger simultaneous short squeezes and capital inflows, propelling prices into a new upward cycle,” the firm emphasized.

Tide Capital得出的结论是，BTC的当前环境（以低迷的资金率，拥挤的短裤和Stablecoin的累积标记）创造了难得的购买机会。该公司强调说：“任何宏观改进或政策催化剂都可能引发同时发生的短挤压和资本流入，将价格推向新的上周期。”