比特幣最近的價格撤退創造了一個戰略入口處

儘管宏觀經濟的逆風，該公司仍強調了技術和基本指標的匯合，這指出了長期投資者的巨大機會。

Bitcoin’s recent price retreat has created a strategic entry point, according to Tide Capital, as the firm highlighted several technical and fundamental indicators that signal a potential market bottom. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and pessimism, the firm believes that current market dynamics and institutional activity are setting the stage for a substantial recovery rally in the latter half of 2025.

根據Tide Capital的說法，比特幣最近的價格撤退創造了一個戰略切入點，因為該公司強調了幾種表明潛在市場底層的技術和基本指標。儘管宏觀經濟的逆風和悲觀主義，該公司認為，當前的市場動態和機構活動為2025年後半段的重大恢復集會奠定了基礎。

Specifically, U.S. economic turbulence has intensified in early 2025, resulting in sharp corrections across major asset classes. The Nasdaq Index has tumbled -15% from recent highs, while Bitcoin has fallen over -25% as traders engage in frantic flight-to-safety flows.

具體而言，美國的經濟動盪在2025年初加劇，導致主要資產類別的徹底糾正。納斯達克指數比最近的高點跌幅-15％，而隨著貿易商從事瘋狂的航班安全流，比特幣下降了-25％。

Data from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showcases a significant revision in Q1 2025 U.S. real GDP growth projections, dropping sharply from 3.2% to -1.8%. This signals weak short-term economic performance and has raised concerns about a potential recession.

來自亞特蘭大美聯儲的GDPNOW模型的數據顯示了第1季度2025年美國實際GDP增長預測的重大修訂，從3.2％急劇下降到-1.8％。這表明短期經濟表現較弱，並引起了人們對潛在衰退的擔憂。

The risk of recession has escalated amidst these growth concerns. Polymarket data cited by Tide Capital reveals that the market-implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has risen to 35%. This marks an increase of 13 percentage points since the beginning of the year, highlighting intensifying fears of a recession and increased defensive positioning among investors.

在這些增長問題中，衰退的風險已升級。 Tide Capital引用的Polymarket數據表明，2025年美國衰退的市場可能性上升至35％。這標誌著自今年年初以來增加了13個百分點，這強調了人們對經濟衰退的擔憂和投資者之間的防禦地位增加。

In response to this economic weakness, Tide Capital observes a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. Goldman Sachs has recently raised its gold price target to $3,300, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty and a booming demand for risk hedges.

為了應對這種經濟弱點，潮汐資本觀察到對避風港資產的需求激增。高盛（Goldman Sachs）最近將其黃金價格目標提高到了3,300美元，這反映了經濟不確定性的提高和對風險對沖的繁榮需求。

However, despite experiencing sharp corrections of over -50% from recent highs, markets appear to have fully integrated negative expectations, according to Tide Capital. The firm points out that U.S. equity CTA short positions have reached a two-year extreme, exceeding $30 billion, as reported by Goldman Sachs. This signals peak bearish sentiment and suggests reduced downside risks moving forward.

然而，儘管潮汐資本稱，儘管最近高點的急劇更正超過-50％，但市場似乎完全融合了負面期望。該公司指出，正如高盛（Goldman Sachs）報導的那樣，美國股票CTA的短期職位已達到兩年，超過了300億美元。這表明看跌的峰值情緒，並表明降低了下行風險向前發展。

The unexpected decision by the Federal Reserve during its March FOMC meeting to slow the pace of quantitative tightening—by reducing monthly Treasury roll-off caps from 25 billion to 5 billion—has significantly bolstered market confidence. This shift has contributed to a rebound in risk assets, noted Tide Capital.

美聯儲在3月的FOMC會議上的意外決定，以減慢定量收緊的步伐，通過將每月的國庫倒車從250億降低到50億美元，這顯著增強了市場信心。潮汐資本指出，這種轉變導致了風險資產的反彈。

While acknowledging the persistence of near-term challenges, Tide Capital emphasizes that current economic data does not indicate an inevitable crisis. With extreme pessimism already reflected in asset prices, any minor economic improvements could swiftly overturn prevailing recession narratives and ignite a robust recovery rally.

在承認近期挑戰的持續存在的同時，潮汐資本強調，當前的經濟數據並不表明不可避免的危機。由於已經反映出資產價格的極端悲觀主義，任何較小的經濟改善都可以迅速推翻盛會的衰退敘事，並點燃強大的恢復集會。

According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen five consecutive weeks of outflow since February 10, totaling $5.5 billion.

根據Coinglass的數據，自2月10日以來，比特幣現場ETF連續五個星期的流出，總計55億美元。

This sustained outflow period is noteworthy as it usually coincides with market bottoms and presents significant long-term entry opportunities for investors, according to Tide Capital.

根據Tide Capital的說法，這種持續的流出期值得注意，因為它通常與市場底層相吻合，並為投資者提供了很大的長期進入機會。

Moreover, Tide Capital highlights that BTC perpetual funding rates on Binance have dropped below 5% (7-day average), levels not seen since September 2024, as reported by The Block. This decline in funding rates is indicative of weak bullish momentum and peak bearish sentiment—classic signs of a market bottom forming.

此外，潮汐資本強調，BTC永久融資率降至5％以下（平均7天）以來，自2024年9月以來未見水平，如該街區所報導。資金率的下降表明，看漲的動力和峰值看跌感情，這是市場底層形成的周期跡象。

This aligns with the observations of prominent figures in the crypto sphere, such as Galaxy's Mike Novogratz, who has also pointed to a potential market bottom in the first quarter of 2025.

這與加密球體中突出數字的觀察結果相吻合，例如Galaxy的Mike Novogratz，他還指出了2025年第一季度的潛在市場底層。

Despite BTC's current price being off its highs, stablecoin supplies continue to break records, surpassing 230 billion—a 30 billion increase since the start of 2025. As the backbone of liquidity within the crypto markets, the expansion of stablecoin reserves signals institutional readiness to capitalize on the next upcycle, providing fuel for future growth.

儘管BTC目前的價格降低了，但Stablecoin的供應仍在打破記錄，超過了2,300億美元，自2025年初以來增長了300億美元。作為加密貨幣市場中流動性的支柱，StableCoin的流動性骨幹的擴大，STABLECOIN的擴大信號保留了信號的綜合狀況，可以使下一個上次上升的燃料增長，從而為未來的增長提供了資金。

Tide Capital concludes that BTC’s current environment—marked by depressed funding rates, crowded shorts, and stablecoin accumulation—creates a rare buying opportunity. “Any macro improvement or policy catalyst could trigger simultaneous short squeezes and capital inflows, propelling prices into a new upward cycle,” the firm emphasized.

Tide Capital得出的結論是，BTC的當前環境（以低迷的資金率，擁擠的短褲和Stablecoin的累積標記）創造了難得的購買機會。該公司強調說：“任何宏觀改進或政策催化劑都可能引發同時發生的短擠壓和資本流入，將價格推向新的上週期。”