尽管近期下跌，但市场杠杆率仍然过高，比特币面临潜在回调

比特币最近的价格调整在 11 月 13 日至 15 日期间下跌了 6%，引发了有关其是否可能面临更严重崩盘的讨论。

Bitcoin’s recent price correction, sparked by a 6% drop between November 13 and 15, has fueled speculation about a possible deeper crash.

比特币最近的价格调整是由 11 月 13 日至 15 日期间下跌 6% 引发的，引发了人们对可能出现更严重崩盘的猜测。

Following Bitcoin’s surge past its previous all-time high of $73,880, the cryptocurrency reached new peaks above $91,000. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin has maintained a higher high and higher low pattern on daily charts, indicating sustained bullish momentum as long as it remains above the $85,000 zone.

在比特币飙升至 73,880 美元的历史高点之后，该加密货币达到了 91,000 美元以上的新高。尽管出现回调，但比特币在日线图上仍保持较高高点和较高低点的格局，表明只要其保持在 85,000 美元区域上方，就表明持续看涨势头。

Bitcoin’s recent price action has formed higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart, remaining above key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day) and signaling bullish momentum since November 5.

比特币近期的价格走势在小时图上形成了更高的高点和更高的低点，保持在关键移动平均线（50日、100日和200日）之上，并发出自 11 月 5 日以来的看涨势头。

According to analyst Bluntz, the current pullback to $87,000 may be the last low before Bitcoin aims for $100,000. A liquidity sweep near $85,500 could solidify support, paving the way for continued upward momentum.

分析师 Bluntz 表示，当前回调至 87,000 美元可能是比特币目标达到 100,000 美元之前的最后一个低点。流动性接近 85,500 美元可能会巩固支撑，为持续上涨势头铺平道路。

However, if Bitcoin fails to close above $85,000 daily, it could face difficulties, as evidenced by the increasing risk of a deeper correction due to overleveraged positions in the futures market.

然而，如果比特币未能收于每日 85,000 美元以上，它可能会面临困难，期货市场过度杠杆化导致进一步调整的风险不断增加就证明了这一点。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju highlighted on November 13 that the estimated futures leverage ratio for Bitcoin/USDT pairs has reached a record high of 270%, exceeding its previous peak in May 2024.

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki-Young Ju 于 11 月 13 日强调，预计比特币/USDT 货币对的期货杠杆率已达到 270% 的历史新高，超过了 2024 年 5 月的峰值。

To further assess the leverage risk, Bitcoin’s open interest levels have also reached all-time highs, indicating a substantial volume of leveraged positions. Moreover, given that historical trading activity above $73,884 spans less than 10 days, the thin spot order book support and resistance complicate price stability within this range.

为了进一步评估杠杆风险，比特币的未平仓合约水平也达到了历史新高，表明杠杆头寸数量巨大。此外，鉴于历史交易活动高于 73,884 美元的时间跨度不到 10 天，现货订单薄弱的支撑位和阻力位使该区间内的价格稳定变得复杂。

According to CoinGlass data, a key liquidation zone lies around $85,750, where over $127 million in leveraged positions could be liquidated. This makes a liquidity sweep of the $85,000 level likely, potentially setting the stage for a price rebound if buyers enter the market. However, the thin market conditions and high leverage remain critical concerns that could amplify volatility.

根据 CoinGlass 的数据，关键的清算区域位于 85,750 美元左右，可以清算超过 1.27 亿美元的杠杆头寸。这使得流动性可能会突破 85,000 美元的水平，如果买家进入市场，可能会为价格反弹奠定基础。然而，清淡的市场状况和高杠杆率仍然是可能加剧波动性的关键问题。

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum depends on holding above $85,000, while overleveraged markets and thin support above $73,880 increase the risk of a deeper correction. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or continues to decline.

比特币的看涨势头取决于能否维持在 85,000 美元上方，而过度杠杆化的市场和 73,880 美元上方的支撑薄弱会增加进一步回调的风险。未来几天对于决定比特币是稳定还是继续下跌至关重要。