儘管近期下跌，但市場槓桿率仍過高，比特幣面臨潛在回調

比特幣最近的價格調整在 11 月 13 日至 15 日期間下跌了 6%，引發了有關其是否可能面臨更嚴重崩盤的討論。

Bitcoin’s recent price correction, sparked by a 6% drop between November 13 and 15, has fueled speculation about a possible deeper crash.

比特幣最近的價格調整是由 11 月 13 日至 15 日期間下跌 6% 引發的，引發了人們對可能更嚴重崩盤的猜測。

Following Bitcoin’s surge past its previous all-time high of $73,880, the cryptocurrency reached new peaks above $91,000. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin has maintained a higher high and higher low pattern on daily charts, indicating sustained bullish momentum as long as it remains above the $85,000 zone.

在比特幣飆升至 73,880 美元的歷史高點之後，加密貨幣達到了 91,000 美元以上的新高。儘管出現回調，比特幣在日線圖上仍保持較高高點和較高低點的格局，表明只要其保持在 85,000 美元區域上方，就表明持續看漲勢頭。

Bitcoin’s recent price action has formed higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart, remaining above key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day) and signaling bullish momentum since November 5.

比特幣近期的價格走勢在小時圖上形成了更高的高點和更高的低點，保持在關鍵移動平均線（50日、100日和200日）之上，並發出自11 月5 日以來的看漲勢頭。

According to analyst Bluntz, the current pullback to $87,000 may be the last low before Bitcoin aims for $100,000. A liquidity sweep near $85,500 could solidify support, paving the way for continued upward momentum.

分析師 Bluntz 表示，目前回調至 87,000 美元可能是比特幣目標達到 10 萬美元之前的最後一個低點。流動性接近 85,500 美元可能會鞏固支撐，為持續上漲勢頭鋪平道路。

However, if Bitcoin fails to close above $85,000 daily, it could face difficulties, as evidenced by the increasing risk of a deeper correction due to overleveraged positions in the futures market.

然而，如果比特幣未能收於每日 85,000 美元以上，它可能會面臨困難，期貨市場過度槓桿化導致進一步調整的風險不斷增加就證明了這一點。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju highlighted on November 13 that the estimated futures leverage ratio for Bitcoin/USDT pairs has reached a record high of 270%, exceeding its previous peak in May 2024.

CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki-Young Ju 於 11 月 13 日強調，預計比特幣/USDT 貨幣對的期貨槓桿率已達到 270% 的歷史新高，超過了 2024 年 5 月的峰值。

To further assess the leverage risk, Bitcoin’s open interest levels have also reached all-time highs, indicating a substantial volume of leveraged positions. Moreover, given that historical trading activity above $73,884 spans less than 10 days, the thin spot order book support and resistance complicate price stability within this range.

為了進一步評估槓桿風險，比特幣的未平倉合約水準也達到了歷史新高，顯示槓桿部位數量龐大。此外，鑑於歷史交易活動高於 73,884 美元的時間跨度不到 10 天，現貨訂單薄弱的支撐位和阻力位使該區間內的價格穩定變得複雜。

According to CoinGlass data, a key liquidation zone lies around $85,750, where over $127 million in leveraged positions could be liquidated. This makes a liquidity sweep of the $85,000 level likely, potentially setting the stage for a price rebound if buyers enter the market. However, the thin market conditions and high leverage remain critical concerns that could amplify volatility.

根據 CoinGlass 的數據，關鍵的清算區域位於 85,750 美元左右，可以清算超過 1.27 億美元的槓桿部位。這使得流動性可能會突破 85,000 美元的水平，如果買家進入市場，可能會為價格反彈奠定基礎。然而，清淡的市場狀況和高槓桿率仍然是可能加劇波動性的關鍵問題。

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum depends on holding above $85,000, while overleveraged markets and thin support above $73,880 increase the risk of a deeper correction. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or continues to decline.

比特幣的看漲勢頭取決於能否維持在 85,000 美元上方，而過度槓桿化的市場和 73,880 美元上方的支撐薄弱會增加進一步回調的風險。未來幾天對於決定比特幣是穩定還是繼續下跌至關重要。