比特币是庞氏骗局吗？

为了回答这一点，让我们首先了解庞氏骗局是什么，然后看看像埃隆·马斯克，查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特这样的名人对比特币说的。

Let's first define what a Ponzi scheme is and then look at what famous people like Elon Musk, Charlie Munger, and Warren Buffett have said about Bitcoin.

让我们首先定义庞氏骗局是什么，然后看看像埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk），查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）和沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）这样的名人。

A Ponzi scheme is a fake investment plan where money from new investors is used to pay old investors. It looks like a business, but there's no real profit being made. Everything works fine until new people stop joining. Then the whole thing falls apart.

庞氏骗局是一项虚假的投资计划，其中新投资者的资金用于向老投资者支付。它看起来像是一家企业，但没有真正的利润。一切正常，直到新人们停止加入为止。然后整个事情崩溃了。

The name comes from Charles Ponzi, who ran one of the most famous schemes in the 1920s.

这个名字来自查尔斯·庞兹（Charles Ponzi），他在1920年代运行了最著名的计划之一。

Some critics say Bitcoin is like that. It doesn't produce anything, like a business or a factory. People just buy it hoping the price will go up, so they can sell it later to someone else.

一些批评家说比特币就是这样。它不会产生任何东西，例如企业或工厂。人们只是购买它，希望价格上涨，以便以后可以将其出售给其他人。

Famous financier Charlie Munger once said, "It's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide you can't be left out." In other words, he believed Bitcoin was worthless and only appealed to people who thought they could get rich quickly.

著名的金融家查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）曾经说过：“就像其他人正在交易turds一样，您认为自己不能被排除在外。”换句话说，他认为比特币一文不值，只吸引了那些认为自己可以迅速致富的人。

Another famous investor, Warren Buffett, also doesn't like Bitcoin. He called it "rat poison squared," meaning it is toxic and then some! He says it doesn't have real value because it doesn't make money, pay interest, or do anything useful. (So like gold without the metal.)

另一个著名的投资者沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也不喜欢比特币。他称其为“老鼠毒药平方”，这意味着它有毒，然后是一些！他说，它没有真正的价值，因为它没有赚钱，支付利息或做任何有用的事情。 （就像没有金属的金子一样。）

Elon Musk, on the other hand, once tweeted, "Bitcoin is almost as bs as fiat money," which means he sees the same problems with both Bitcoin and regular government money like dollars or pesos.

另一方面，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）发推文说：“比特币几乎与菲亚特·货币一样BS”，这意味着他看到比特币和常规政府钱（如美元或比索斯）都有同样的问题。

So is Bitcoin really a Ponzi scheme? Well, it doesn't fully match the definition of a Ponzi scheme. There's no central person promising fictitious returns or secretly moving money around. It's more like a bet on what people will value in the future. If people believe in it, the price goes up. If they don't, it goes down. That's risky, but not quite a scam.

那么比特币真的是庞氏骗局吗？好吧，它与庞氏骗局的定义完全不匹配。没有中心人有希望的虚拟回报，也没有秘密地赚钱。这更像是人们将来会重视什么。如果人们相信它，价格上涨。如果他们不这样做，那就下降了。这是有风险的，但不是一个骗局。

Let's compare Bitcoin to other things people worry about, like Social Security in the U.S., the National Pension in the UK, or even Tesla stock (TSLA). These systems also rely on new money coming in to support the old. For example, workers pay into Social Security, and that money goes to retirees. If fewer people work in the future, the system might have trouble.

让我们将比特币与人们担心的其他事情进行比较，例如美国的社会保障，英国的国家养老金，甚至是特斯拉股票（TSLA）。这些系统还依靠新资金来支持旧资金。例如，工人向社会保障付款，这笔钱流向了退休人员。如果将来的人工作更少，那么系统可能会遇到麻烦。

But here's the big difference: these are backed by governments. Governments can raise taxes or print money if needed. That gives people more confidence.

但这是最大的区别：这些是由政府支持的。政府可以在需要时提高税收或打印资金。这给人们带来了更多的信心。

To fix Social Security shortfalls in the U.S., the government could raise the payroll tax that workers and employers pay. Right now, it's 6.2% each, but even a small increase could bring in more revenue. Another option is raising or removing the income cap on Social Security taxes, so higher earners would have to contribute a bit more. The government could also slowly raise the retirement age, since people are living longer. These tweaks might not be popular with everyone, but they could help the system stay stronger for future generations.

为了解决美国的社会保障短缺，政府可以提高工人和雇主缴纳的工资税。目前，每个人为6.2％，但即使是少量增加也可能带来更多的收入。另一个选择是提高或删除社会保障税的收入上限，因此，收入更高的人必须贡献更多。由于人们的寿命更长，政府也可以慢慢提高退休年龄。这些调整可能并不受到所有人的欢迎，但是它们可以帮助该系统在子孙后代保持强大。

In the UK, to handle pension shortages, the government could increase the National Insurance contributions that fund the state pension. They might also adjust the pension age upward, especially as life expectancy rises. Another idea is to review the UK's triple lock system, which raises pensions each year by the highest of inflation, wages, or 2.5%. Changing or replacing this rule could certainly save money, and in fact the US uses an index for its COLA (Cost of Living Adjustments) that is generally regarded as lower than the rate of general inflation on the type of bills that retired people typically have to pay.

在英国，为了解决养老金短缺，政府可以增加为国家养老金提供资金的国家保险捐款。他们也可能会向上调整养老金年龄，尤其是随着预期寿命的上升。另一个想法是审查英国的三锁系统，该系统每年将养老金提高到通货膨胀，工资最高或2.5％。更改或替换此规则肯定可以节省金钱，实际上，美国使用指数（生活成本调整）使用指数，通常被认为低于一般性通货膨胀率通常需要支付的账单类型。

TSLA stock is different too. Tesla is a real company that makes electric cars, batteries, and solar products. It has revenue, employees, and factories. You might think the stock is absurdly expensive compared to the stock of every other car maker on the planet, but it's not a Ponzi scheme. You're just buying a piece of a real car building business for ten times the cost of any competitor.

TSLA股票也不同。特斯拉是一家真正的公司，可生产电动汽车，电池和太阳能产品。它有收入，员工和工厂。与地球上所有其他汽车制造商的股票相比，您可能会认为该股票昂贵，但这不是庞氏骗局。您只是购买一家真正的汽车建设业务，其成本是任何竞争对手的十倍。

In contrast, Bitcoin is just a digital token, and the most important point to note is that it is not backed by a company or a government. That makes it exciting but also risky. So, while Bitcoin isn't exactly a scam or a Ponzi scheme, it's also not as safe as something supported by laws, taxes, or physical products.

相比之下，比特币只是一个数字代币，要注意的最重要的一点是，它不是由公司或政府支持的。这使它令人兴奋，但也冒险。因此，尽管比特币并不是骗局或庞氏骗局，但它也不像法律，税收或物理产品支持的东西那样安全。

Another consideration is the commissions you might pay to buy and sell Bitcoin. Although these are quite low on the most popular websites like Coinbase or Kraken, recently ATMs that buy and sell Bitcoin have been springing up all over the world. The catch is that these machines charge high commissions of up to 20% for transactions, so if you buy some Bitcoin and then want to sell it back at a nice profit, you might have to make a gain of 40% just to break even.

另一个考虑因素是您可能要支付的佣金买卖比特币。尽管这些网站在Coinbase或Kraken等最受欢迎的网站上很低，但最近买卖比特币的ATM在世界各地都在涌现。收集到的是，这些机器收取的交易高达20％的高佣金，因此，如果您购买一些比特币，然后想以不错的利润出售它，则可能必须获得40％的收益才能达到40％。