比特幣是龐氏騙局嗎？

為了回答這一點，讓我們首先了解龐氏騙局是什麼，然後看看像埃隆·馬斯克，查理·芒格和沃倫·巴菲特這樣的名人對比特幣說的。

Let's first define what a Ponzi scheme is and then look at what famous people like Elon Musk, Charlie Munger, and Warren Buffett have said about Bitcoin.

讓我們首先定義龐氏騙局是什麼，然後看看像埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk），查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）和沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）這樣的名人。

A Ponzi scheme is a fake investment plan where money from new investors is used to pay old investors. It looks like a business, but there's no real profit being made. Everything works fine until new people stop joining. Then the whole thing falls apart.

龐氏騙局是一項虛假的投資計劃，其中新投資者的資金用於向老投資者支付。它看起來像是一家企業，但沒有真正的利潤。一切正常，直到新人們停止加入為止。然後整個事情崩潰了。

The name comes from Charles Ponzi, who ran one of the most famous schemes in the 1920s.

這個名字來自查爾斯·龐茲（Charles Ponzi），他在1920年代運行了最著名的計劃之一。

Some critics say Bitcoin is like that. It doesn't produce anything, like a business or a factory. People just buy it hoping the price will go up, so they can sell it later to someone else.

一些批評家說比特幣就是這樣。它不會產生任何東西，例如企業或工廠。人們只是購買它，希望價格上漲，以便以後可以將其出售給其他人。

Famous financier Charlie Munger once said, "It's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide you can't be left out." In other words, he believed Bitcoin was worthless and only appealed to people who thought they could get rich quickly.

著名的金融家查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）曾經說過：“就像其他人正在交易turds一樣，您認為自己不能被排除在外。”換句話說，他認為比特幣一文不值，只吸引了那些認為自己可以迅速致富的人。

Another famous investor, Warren Buffett, also doesn't like Bitcoin. He called it "rat poison squared," meaning it is toxic and then some! He says it doesn't have real value because it doesn't make money, pay interest, or do anything useful. (So like gold without the metal.)

另一個著名的投資者沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也不喜歡比特幣。他稱其為“老鼠毒藥平方”，這意味著它有毒，然後是一些！他說，它沒有真正的價值，因為它沒有賺錢，支付利息或做任何有用的事情。 （就像沒有金屬的金子一樣。）

Elon Musk, on the other hand, once tweeted, "Bitcoin is almost as bs as fiat money," which means he sees the same problems with both Bitcoin and regular government money like dollars or pesos.

另一方面，埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）發推文說：“比特幣幾乎與菲亞特·貨幣一樣BS”，這意味著他看到比特幣和常規政府錢（如美元或比索斯）都有同樣的問題。

So is Bitcoin really a Ponzi scheme? Well, it doesn't fully match the definition of a Ponzi scheme. There's no central person promising fictitious returns or secretly moving money around. It's more like a bet on what people will value in the future. If people believe in it, the price goes up. If they don't, it goes down. That's risky, but not quite a scam.

那麼比特幣真的是龐氏騙局嗎？好吧，它與龐氏騙局的定義完全不匹配。沒有中心人有希望的虛擬回報，也沒有秘密地賺錢。這更像是人們將來會重視什麼。如果人們相信它，價格上漲。如果他們不這樣做，那就下降了。這是有風險的，但不是一個騙局。

Let's compare Bitcoin to other things people worry about, like Social Security in the U.S., the National Pension in the UK, or even Tesla stock (TSLA). These systems also rely on new money coming in to support the old. For example, workers pay into Social Security, and that money goes to retirees. If fewer people work in the future, the system might have trouble.

讓我們將比特幣與人們擔心的其他事情進行比較，例如美國的社會保障，英國的國家養老金，甚至是特斯拉股票（TSLA）。這些系統還依靠新資金來支持舊資金。例如，工人向社會保障付款，這筆錢流向了退休人員。如果將來的人工作更少，那麼系統可能會遇到麻煩。

But here's the big difference: these are backed by governments. Governments can raise taxes or print money if needed. That gives people more confidence.

但這是最大的區別：這些是由政府支持的。政府可以在需要時提高稅收或打印資金。這給人們帶來了更多的信心。

To fix Social Security shortfalls in the U.S., the government could raise the payroll tax that workers and employers pay. Right now, it's 6.2% each, but even a small increase could bring in more revenue. Another option is raising or removing the income cap on Social Security taxes, so higher earners would have to contribute a bit more. The government could also slowly raise the retirement age, since people are living longer. These tweaks might not be popular with everyone, but they could help the system stay stronger for future generations.

為了解決美國的社會保障短缺，政府可以提高工人和雇主繳納的工資稅。目前，每個人為6.2％，但即使是少量增加也可能帶來更多的收入。另一個選擇是提高或刪除社會保障稅的收入上限，因此，收入更高的人必須貢獻更多。由於人們的壽命更長，政府也可以慢慢提高退休年齡。這些調整可能並不受到所有人的歡迎，但是它們可以幫助該系統在子孫後代保持強大。

In the UK, to handle pension shortages, the government could increase the National Insurance contributions that fund the state pension. They might also adjust the pension age upward, especially as life expectancy rises. Another idea is to review the UK's triple lock system, which raises pensions each year by the highest of inflation, wages, or 2.5%. Changing or replacing this rule could certainly save money, and in fact the US uses an index for its COLA (Cost of Living Adjustments) that is generally regarded as lower than the rate of general inflation on the type of bills that retired people typically have to pay.

在英國，為了解決養老金短缺，政府可以增加為國家養老金提供資金的國家保險捐款。他們也可能會向上調整養老金年齡，尤其是隨著預期壽命的上升。另一個想法是審查英國的三鎖系統，該系統每年將養老金提高到通貨膨脹，工資最高或2.5％。更改或替換此規則肯定可以節省金錢，實際上，美國使用指數（生活成本調整）使用指數，通常被認為低於一般性通貨膨脹率通常需要支付的賬單類型。

TSLA stock is different too. Tesla is a real company that makes electric cars, batteries, and solar products. It has revenue, employees, and factories. You might think the stock is absurdly expensive compared to the stock of every other car maker on the planet, but it's not a Ponzi scheme. You're just buying a piece of a real car building business for ten times the cost of any competitor.

TSLA股票也不同。特斯拉是一家真正的公司，可生產電動汽車，電池和太陽能產品。它有收入，員工和工廠。與地球上所有其他汽車製造商的股票相比，您可能會認為該股票昂貴，但這不是龐氏騙局。您只是購買一家真正的汽車建設業務，其成本是任何競爭對手的十倍。

In contrast, Bitcoin is just a digital token, and the most important point to note is that it is not backed by a company or a government. That makes it exciting but also risky. So, while Bitcoin isn't exactly a scam or a Ponzi scheme, it's also not as safe as something supported by laws, taxes, or physical products.

相比之下，比特幣只是一個數字代幣，要注意的最重要的一點是，它不是由公司或政府支持的。這使它令人興奮，但也冒險。因此，儘管比特幣並不是騙局或龐氏騙局，但它也不像法律，稅收或物理產品支持的東西那樣安全。

Another consideration is the commissions you might pay to buy and sell Bitcoin. Although these are quite low on the most popular websites like Coinbase or Kraken, recently ATMs that buy and sell Bitcoin have been springing up all over the world. The catch is that these machines charge high commissions of up to 20% for transactions, so if you buy some Bitcoin and then want to sell it back at a nice profit, you might have to make a gain of 40% just to break even.

另一個考慮因素是您可能要支付的佣金買賣比特幣。儘管這些網站在Coinbase或Kraken等最受歡迎的網站上很低，但最近買賣比特幣的ATM在世界各地都在湧現。收集到的是，這些機器收取的交易高達20％的高佣金，因此，如果您購買一些比特幣，然後想以不錯的利潤出售它，則可能必須獲得40％的收益才能達到40％。