Is Bitcoin a Ponzi Scheme?

To answer that, let's first understand what a Ponzi scheme is and then look at what famous people like Elon Musk, Charlie Munger, and Warren Buffett have said about Bitcoin.

Let's first define what a Ponzi scheme is and then look at what famous people like Elon Musk, Charlie Munger, and Warren Buffett have said about Bitcoin.

A Ponzi scheme is a fake investment plan where money from new investors is used to pay old investors. It looks like a business, but there's no real profit being made. Everything works fine until new people stop joining. Then the whole thing falls apart.

The name comes from Charles Ponzi, who ran one of the most famous schemes in the 1920s.

Some critics say Bitcoin is like that. It doesn't produce anything, like a business or a factory. People just buy it hoping the price will go up, so they can sell it later to someone else.

Famous financier Charlie Munger once said, "It's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide you can't be left out." In other words, he believed Bitcoin was worthless and only appealed to people who thought they could get rich quickly.

Another famous investor, Warren Buffett, also doesn't like Bitcoin. He called it "rat poison squared," meaning it is toxic and then some! He says it doesn't have real value because it doesn't make money, pay interest, or do anything useful. (So like gold without the metal.)

Elon Musk, on the other hand, once tweeted, "Bitcoin is almost as bs as fiat money," which means he sees the same problems with both Bitcoin and regular government money like dollars or pesos.

So is Bitcoin really a Ponzi scheme? Well, it doesn't fully match the definition of a Ponzi scheme. There's no central person promising fictitious returns or secretly moving money around. It's more like a bet on what people will value in the future. If people believe in it, the price goes up. If they don't, it goes down. That's risky, but not quite a scam.

Let's compare Bitcoin to other things people worry about, like Social Security in the U.S., the National Pension in the UK, or even Tesla stock (TSLA). These systems also rely on new money coming in to support the old. For example, workers pay into Social Security, and that money goes to retirees. If fewer people work in the future, the system might have trouble.

But here's the big difference: these are backed by governments. Governments can raise taxes or print money if needed. That gives people more confidence.

To fix Social Security shortfalls in the U.S., the government could raise the payroll tax that workers and employers pay. Right now, it's 6.2% each, but even a small increase could bring in more revenue. Another option is raising or removing the income cap on Social Security taxes, so higher earners would have to contribute a bit more. The government could also slowly raise the retirement age, since people are living longer. These tweaks might not be popular with everyone, but they could help the system stay stronger for future generations.

In the UK, to handle pension shortages, the government could increase the National Insurance contributions that fund the state pension. They might also adjust the pension age upward, especially as life expectancy rises. Another idea is to review the UK's triple lock system, which raises pensions each year by the highest of inflation, wages, or 2.5%. Changing or replacing this rule could certainly save money, and in fact the US uses an index for its COLA (Cost of Living Adjustments) that is generally regarded as lower than the rate of general inflation on the type of bills that retired people typically have to pay.

TSLA stock is different too. Tesla is a real company that makes electric cars, batteries, and solar products. It has revenue, employees, and factories. You might think the stock is absurdly expensive compared to the stock of every other car maker on the planet, but it's not a Ponzi scheme. You're just buying a piece of a real car building business for ten times the cost of any competitor.

In contrast, Bitcoin is just a digital token, and the most important point to note is that it is not backed by a company or a government. That makes it exciting but also risky. So, while Bitcoin isn't exactly a scam or a Ponzi scheme, it's also not as safe as something supported by laws, taxes, or physical products.

Another consideration is the commissions you might pay to buy and sell Bitcoin. Although these are quite low on the most popular websites like Coinbase or Kraken, recently ATMs that buy and sell Bitcoin have been springing up all over the world. The catch is that these machines charge high commissions of up to 20% for transactions, so if you buy some Bitcoin and then want to sell it back at a nice profit, you might have to make a gain of 40% just to break even.