比特币暴跌至 5 万美元左右，预示着可能的熊市

4 月份对比特币来说是动荡的一个月，损失超过 16%，可能是自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩盘以来最糟糕的月度表现。虽然现货 ETF 在香港首次亮相最初表现平平，但分析师认为，推出时机有利，而且实际交易量并不像看起来那么令人失望。随着比特币徘徊在 60,000 美元以下，且更广泛的加密货币市场大幅调整，熊市的可能性迫在眉睫，分析师预测比特币将进一步跌至 50,000 美元区域。

Bitcoin Tumbles to Mid-$50,000s, Signaling Potential Bear Market

比特币跌至 50,000 美元左右，预示着潜在的熊市

Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, has plummeted over 16% in April, marking its worst monthly decline since November 2022, when the FTX exchange collapse sent shockwaves through the crypto market. Bitcoin's price has dipped below $60,000, escalating concerns among traders that a protracted downturn may be imminent.

全球领先的加密货币比特币在 4 月份暴跌超过 16%，创下自 2022 年 11 月以来最严重的月度跌幅，当时 FTX 交易所崩溃给加密货币市场带来了冲击波。比特币的价格已跌破 60,000 美元，这加剧了交易者对长期低迷可能即将到来的担忧。

The sell-off in Bitcoin is attributed to a confluence of factors, including the disappointing debut of spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong and growing fears over rising interest rates. The United States Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation has dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, weighing heavily on the digital asset market.

比特币的抛售归因于多种因素，包括现货加密货币交易所交易基金（ETF）在香港的首次亮相令人失望，以及对利率上升的担忧日益加剧。美联储对通胀的鹰派立场打压了降息预期，给数字资产市场带来沉重压力。

According to LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger, the Fed's shift towards a more conservative monetary policy outlook, coupled with a strengthening U.S. dollar, is spilling over into the crypto market. "We are seeing evidence of the Fed leaning towards a higher-for-longer policy stance, despite investor calls for more accommodation," Kruger said.

LMAX Group 市场策略师 Joel Kruger 表示，美联储转向更加保守的货币政策前景，加上美元走强，正在蔓延到加密货币市场。克鲁格表示：“我们看到有证据表明，尽管投资者呼吁采取更多宽松政策，但美联储仍倾向于采取更高、更长期的政策立场。”

The impact of Bitcoin's decline is not limited to the cryptocurrency market; traditional financial markets have also experienced turbulence this week. U.S. economic data released Tuesday suggest a stagflationary environment, with slowing economic growth and rising inflationary pressures. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 2% for the day, while the S&P 500 Index fell 1.6%.

比特币下跌的影响不仅限于加密货币市场；传统金融市场本周也经历了动荡。周二公布的美国经济数据显示，经济增长放缓，通胀压力上升，出现滞胀环境。纳斯达克综合指数当天下跌 2%，标准普尔 500 指数下跌 1.6%。

Analysts anticipate further correction in the Bitcoin market, with John Glover, chief investment officer of crypto lending firm Ledn, predicting a sell-off to the mid-to-low $50,000 region. Seasonal effects, including typically lower interest in the summer months, may also contribute to lower prices.

分析师预计比特币市场将进一步调整，加密贷款公司 Ledn 的首席投资官约翰·格洛弗 (John Glover) 预测比特币将跌至 50,000 美元的中低位区域。季节性影响，包括夏季通常较低的兴趣，也可能导致价格下降。

The underwhelming debut of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in Hong Kong has added to the negative sentiment in the crypto market. While trading volume was tepid, just over $10 million, analysts suggest that the launch was more successful than initially perceived. Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the Hong Kong ETF market size is significantly smaller than the U.S. market.

现货比特币和以太坊 ETF 在香港的首次亮相表现平平，加剧了加密货币市场的负面情绪。尽管交易量不温不火，仅略高于 1000 万美元，但分析师表示，此次发布比最初预想的更为成功。 Bloomberg Intelligence 高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 指出，香港 ETF 市场规模明显小于美国市场。

Adjusted for this market difference, the debut was considerable, according to Balchunas. The ChinaAMC Bitcoin product alone gathered over $123 million of assets in its first trading session, making it the sixth-best ETF launch in the past three years and placing it among the top 20% largest ETFs.

巴尔丘纳斯表示，根据市场差异进行调整后，首次亮相的效果相当可观。仅华夏比特币产品在首个交易日就聚集了超过 1.23 亿美元的资产，使其成为过去三年中排名第六的最佳 ETF，并跻身前 20% 最大的 ETF 之列。

Balchunas also emphasized that the Hong Kong-listed ETFs enter the market at an opportune time, potentially offsetting recent outflows from U.S. ETF products. As the cryptocurrency market navigates these uncertain waters, it remains to be seen whether the current downturn will persist and potentially usher in a prolonged bear market.

Balchunas还强调，香港上市的ETF进入市场的时机恰到好处，可能会抵消近期美国ETF产品的资金流出。随着加密货币市场在这些不确定的水域中航行，当前的低迷是否会持续并可能迎来长期的熊市还有待观察。