比特幣暴跌至 5 萬美元左右，預示著可能的熊市

4 月對比特幣來說是動盪的一個月，損失超過16%，可能是自2022 年11 月FTX 崩盤以來最糟糕的月度表現。推出時機有利，而且實際交易量並不像看起來那麼令人失望。隨著比特幣徘徊在 6 萬美元以下，且更廣泛的加密貨幣市場大幅調整，熊市的可能性迫在眉睫，分析師預測比特幣將進一步跌至 5 萬美元區域。

Bitcoin Tumbles to Mid-$50,000s, Signaling Potential Bear Market

比特幣跌至 5 萬美元左右，預示著潛在的熊市

Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, has plummeted over 16% in April, marking its worst monthly decline since November 2022, when the FTX exchange collapse sent shockwaves through the crypto market. Bitcoin's price has dipped below $60,000, escalating concerns among traders that a protracted downturn may be imminent.

全球領先的加密貨幣比特幣在 4 月暴跌超過 16%，創下自 2022 年 11 月以來最嚴重的月度跌幅，當時 FTX 交易所崩潰給加密貨幣市場帶來了衝擊波。比特幣的價格已跌破 6 萬美元，這加劇了交易者對長期低迷可能即將到來的擔憂。

The sell-off in Bitcoin is attributed to a confluence of factors, including the disappointing debut of spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong and growing fears over rising interest rates. The United States Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation has dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, weighing heavily on the digital asset market.

比特幣的拋售歸因於多種因素，包括現貨加密貨幣交易所交易基金（ETF）在香港的首次亮相令人失望，以及對利率上升的擔憂日益加劇。聯準會對通膨的鷹派立場打壓了降息預期，給數位資產市場帶來沉重壓力。

According to LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger, the Fed's shift towards a more conservative monetary policy outlook, coupled with a strengthening U.S. dollar, is spilling over into the crypto market. "We are seeing evidence of the Fed leaning towards a higher-for-longer policy stance, despite investor calls for more accommodation," Kruger said.

LMAX Group 市場策略師 Joel Kruger 表示，聯準會轉向更保守的貨幣政策前景，加上美元走強，正蔓延到加密貨幣市場。克魯格表示：“我們看到有證據表明，儘管投資者呼籲採取更多寬鬆政策，但聯準會仍傾向於採取更高、更長期的政策立場。”

The impact of Bitcoin's decline is not limited to the cryptocurrency market; traditional financial markets have also experienced turbulence this week. U.S. economic data released Tuesday suggest a stagflationary environment, with slowing economic growth and rising inflationary pressures. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 2% for the day, while the S&P 500 Index fell 1.6%.

比特幣下跌的影響不僅限於加密貨幣市場；傳統金融市場本周也經歷了動盪。週二公佈的美國經濟數據顯示，經濟成長放緩，通膨壓力上升，出現滯膨環境。那斯達克指數當天下跌 2%，標準普爾 500 指數下跌 1.6%。

Analysts anticipate further correction in the Bitcoin market, with John Glover, chief investment officer of crypto lending firm Ledn, predicting a sell-off to the mid-to-low $50,000 region. Seasonal effects, including typically lower interest in the summer months, may also contribute to lower prices.

分析師預計比特幣市場將進一步調整，加密貸款公司 Ledn 的首席投資長約翰·格洛弗 (John Glover) 預測比特幣將跌至 50,000 美元的中低位區域。季節性影響，包括夏季通常較低的興趣，也可能導致價格下降。

The underwhelming debut of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in Hong Kong has added to the negative sentiment in the crypto market. While trading volume was tepid, just over $10 million, analysts suggest that the launch was more successful than initially perceived. Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the Hong Kong ETF market size is significantly smaller than the U.S. market.

現貨比特幣和以太幣 ETF 在香港的首次亮相表現平平，加劇了加密貨幣市場的負面情緒。儘管交易量不溫不火，僅略高於 1000 萬美元，但分析師表示，此次發布比最初預想的更為成功。 Bloomberg Intelligence 資深 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 指出，香港 ETF 市場規模明顯小於美國市場。

Adjusted for this market difference, the debut was considerable, according to Balchunas. The ChinaAMC Bitcoin product alone gathered over $123 million of assets in its first trading session, making it the sixth-best ETF launch in the past three years and placing it among the top 20% largest ETFs.

巴爾丘納斯表示，根據市場差異進行調整後，首次亮相的效果相當可觀。僅華夏比特幣產品在首個交易日就聚集了超過 1.23 億美元的資產，使其成為過去三年中排名第六的最佳 ETF，並躋身前 20% 最大的 ETF 之列。

Balchunas also emphasized that the Hong Kong-listed ETFs enter the market at an opportune time, potentially offsetting recent outflows from U.S. ETF products. As the cryptocurrency market navigates these uncertain waters, it remains to be seen whether the current downturn will persist and potentially usher in a prolonged bear market.

Balchunas也強調，香港上市的ETF進入市場的時機恰到好處，可能會抵銷近期美國ETF產品的資金流出。隨著加密貨幣市場在這些不確定的水域中航行，當前的低迷是否會持續並可能迎來長期的熊市還有待觀察。