比特币接近 10 万美元。它会涨到多高？

比特币已经存在 15 年了。为什么它的价格现在才接近每枚 10 万美元？

Bitcoin approached another historic milestone on Monday as its exchange rate with the dollar rose just shy of the psychologically important $100,000 threshold.

周一，比特币接近另一个历史性里程碑，其兑美元汇率升至略低于重要心理关口的 10 万美元。

A few years ago, predicting such a meteoric rise was the pastime of a tiny contingent of “bitcoin maximalists” – people who believed that the broad adoption of bitcoin was inevitable.

几年前，预测如此迅速的上涨只是一小群“比特币最大化主义者”的消遣——他们相信比特币的广泛采用是不可避免的。

Now that bitcoin is on its way to 100K, they must be recognized for having been right about a lot of what they predicted. As Steve Jobs said, “Here’s to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers.”

现在比特币即将突破 10 万，人们必须承认他们的很多预测都是正确的。正如史蒂夫·乔布斯所说：“谨以此献给那些疯狂的人。不合群的人。叛军。那些麻烦制造者。”

Bitcoin is a digital asset that is used by hundreds of millions of people, yet remains absolutely scarce. That means that the more widely it is adopted, the more purchasing power is carried by any fraction of the total.

比特币是一种被数亿人使用的数字资产，但仍然绝对稀缺。这意味着它的采用越广泛，其购买力就越大。

The number of units of bitcoin that can ever exist is hard-limited. You can know with mathematical certainty that bitcoin’s supply cannot be printed, inflated, or counterfeited.

可以存在的比特币单位数量是受到严格限制的。你可以用数学确定性知道比特币的供应量不能被印刷、夸大或伪造。

No matter how much the human population grows and adds productive economic participants, no matter how much AI, robotics, and other breakthrough technologies grow the economy, and no matter how far humanity reaches into the solar system and beyond – there will be a maximum of 21 million bitcoins for all of us to share.

无论人口增长多少，生产性经济参与者增加多少，无论人工智能、机器人技术和其他突破性技术如何促进经济发展，无论人类到达太阳系及更远的地方多远，人类的数量都将达到上限。 2100 万个比特币供我们所有人分享。

Each new person that uses bitcoin to store the fruit of their labor slices off smaller and smaller pieces of the overall pie. We will never run out of bitcoin because it is digital, so it can theoretically be divided into infinitely small pieces. Even if we had a single bitcoin to share across the entire global economy, we could use it just as well as if there were billions of bitcoins.

每个使用比特币存储劳动成果的新人都会从整个蛋糕中切下越来越小的碎片。我们永远不会用完比特币，因为它是数字的，所以理论上它可以分成无限小的碎片。即使我们只有一个比特币可以在整个全球经济中共享，我们也可以像使用数十亿个比特币一样使用它。

The specific number of bitcoins that can ever exist – 21 million – is arbitrary. More important is that the quantity of units is fixed to any number, because it means that the more it is adopted by people and institutions, the more that purchasing power rises for any tiny piece of the total supply.

比特币可能存在的具体数量——2100 万——是任意的。更重要的是，单位数量固定为任意数字，因为这意味着人们和机构采用的单位越多，总供应量中任何一小部分的购买力就会上升得越多。

Bitcoin has been around for 15 years. Why has it just now approached a price of $100,000 per coin?

比特币已经存在 15 年了。为什么它的价格现在才接近每枚 10 万美元？

Reason 1: Bitcoin has strong monetary qualities

理由一：比特币具有很强的货币属性

Predictability, scarcity, and immunity from state capture are just some of the qualities that make bitcoin powerful. Below is a comparison of bitcoin to other forms of money. Bitcoin’s price rises because millions of people who are free to make the decision to use bitcoin have chosen to do so. These people apparently see bitcoin as valuable insofar as it has strong monetary qualities.

可预测性、稀缺性和不受国家捕获的影响只是比特币强大的一些品质。以下是比特币与其他形式货币的比较。比特币的价格上涨是因为数百万可以自由决定使用比特币的人选择这样做。这些人显然认为比特币具有强大的货币品质，因此很有价值。

That is to say – at its core, bitcoin has value because people choose to use it, and that choice can logically be attributed to the qualities that allow it to serve as sound money.

也就是说，从本质上讲，比特币之所以有价值，是因为人们选择使用它，而这种选择在逻辑上可以归因于使其成为健全货币的品质。

When bitcoin’s exchange rate with the dollar goes up and down, its fundamentals do not change. In this sense, the rising price can be viewed as an exercise in price discovery. Perhaps it was always worth $100,000 (or more), it’s just that not enough people understood it.

当比特币与美元的汇率上涨或下跌时，其基本面不会改变。从这个意义上说，价格上涨可以被视为价格发现的一种实践。也许它总是价值 100,000 美元（或更多），只是没有足够多的人理解它。

Reason 2: Bitcoin is now accessible by millions of more people – and billions of dollars worth of capital

原因 2：比特币现在可供数百万人使用，价值数十亿美元的资本

Although newer platforms make it easy to purchase and store physical bitcoin, its learning curve has been preventing some investors from opting in. Now, with bitcoin spot ETFs available to money managers, traders, and individual investors from all walks of life, bitcoin is suddenly available in retirement accounts, family offices, and pension funds.

尽管较新的平台使购买和存储实物比特币变得容易，但其学习曲线一直阻止一些投资者选择加入。现在，随着各行各业的基金经理、交易员和个人投资者都可以使用比特币现货 ETF，比特币突然可用于退休账户、家族办公室和养老基金。

Reason 3: A paradigm shift at multiple levels in U.S. government

原因三：美国政府多个层面的范式转变

This newfound availability is amplified by the prospect of a new leadership in the federal government of the United States. The incoming presidential administration and key congressional leaders have stated in no uncertain terms that they intend to foster financial innovation in the United States by advancing bitcoin-friendly policies.

美国联邦政府新领导层的前景进一步放大了这种新发现的可用性。即将上任的总统政府和国会主要领导人已明确表示，他们打算通过推进比特币友好政策来促进美国的金融创新。

The announcement by Gary Gensler that he will resign from the SEC has caused the entire financial industry to sigh with relief. Many large financial firms will now have millions more dollars per month to reinvest in their businesses – money that they had been spending on defending themselves from capricious enforcement actions by a regulatory body gone completely off the rails. With strong, competent leadership replacing Gary Gensler at the SEC, consumers will be more protected from fiascos like FTX while also benefitting from powerful new financial products and services based on bitcoin.

加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)宣布辞去SEC职务的消息让整个金融界松了一口气。现在，许多大型金融公司每月将有数百万美元用于对其业务进行再投资——这些钱是他们用来保护自己免受完全脱轨的监管机构反复无常的执法行动影响的。随着 SEC 强有力、称职的领导层接替加里·根斯勒 (Gary Gensler)，消费者将得到更多保护，免受 FTX 等惨败的影响，同时也受益于基于比特币的强大新金融产品和服务。

Meanwhile, state governments are also making moves. Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives passed a law dubbed the Bitcoin Rights Bill and has proposed a state-run bitcoin reserve. How many more states will follow is anyone’s guess, but it’s a safe bet that the number will be greater than zero – and that the dynamics of FOMO are likely to take hold.

与此同时，各州政府也在采取行动。宾夕法尼亚州众议院通过了一项名为“比特币权利法案”的法律，并提议设立一个国营比特币储备。到底还有多少州会效仿，谁也说不准，但可以肯定的是，这个数字将大于零，而且 FOMO 的动态很可能会持续下去。

The question on the minds of many who have watched bitcoin rise over 162% in the past year is, how high can it possibly go?

许多目睹比特币在过去一年上涨超过 162% 的人心中的一个问题是，它可能会涨到多高？

Nobody can predict the price of bitcoin on any given date. But one thing is for sure – there is technically no limit to bitcoin

没有人可以预测任何特定日期的比特币价格。但有一件事是肯定的——比特币在技术上没有限制