比特幣接近 10 萬美元。它會漲到多高？

比特幣已經存在 15 年了。為什麼它的價格現在才接近每枚 10 萬美元？

Bitcoin approached another historic milestone on Monday as its exchange rate with the dollar rose just shy of the psychologically important $100,000 threshold.

週一，比特幣接近另一個歷史性里程碑，其兌美元匯率升至略低於重要心理關卡的 10 萬美元。

A few years ago, predicting such a meteoric rise was the pastime of a tiny contingent of “bitcoin maximalists” – people who believed that the broad adoption of bitcoin was inevitable.

幾年前，預測如此迅速的上漲只是一小群「比特幣最大化主義者」的消遣——他們相信比特幣的廣泛採用是不可避免的。

Now that bitcoin is on its way to 100K, they must be recognized for having been right about a lot of what they predicted. As Steve Jobs said, “Here’s to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers.”

現在比特幣即將突破 10 萬，人們必須承認他們的許多預測都是正確的。正如史蒂夫‧賈伯斯所說：「謹以此獻給那些瘋狂的人。不合群的人。叛軍。那些麻煩製造者。

Bitcoin is a digital asset that is used by hundreds of millions of people, yet remains absolutely scarce. That means that the more widely it is adopted, the more purchasing power is carried by any fraction of the total.

比特幣是一種被數億人使用的數位資產，但仍然絕對稀缺。這意味著它的採用越廣泛，其購買力就越大。

The number of units of bitcoin that can ever exist is hard-limited. You can know with mathematical certainty that bitcoin’s supply cannot be printed, inflated, or counterfeited.

可以存在的比特幣單位數量是受到嚴格限制的。你可以用數學確定性知道比特幣的供應不能被印製、誇大或偽造。

No matter how much the human population grows and adds productive economic participants, no matter how much AI, robotics, and other breakthrough technologies grow the economy, and no matter how far humanity reaches into the solar system and beyond – there will be a maximum of 21 million bitcoins for all of us to share.

無論人口成長多少，生產性經濟參與者增加多少，無論人工智慧、機器人技術和其他突破性技術如何促進經濟發展，無論人類到達太陽系及更遠的地方多遠，人類的數量都將達到上限。萬個比特幣供我們所有人分享。

Each new person that uses bitcoin to store the fruit of their labor slices off smaller and smaller pieces of the overall pie. We will never run out of bitcoin because it is digital, so it can theoretically be divided into infinitely small pieces. Even if we had a single bitcoin to share across the entire global economy, we could use it just as well as if there were billions of bitcoins.

每個使用比特幣儲存勞動成果的新人都會從整個蛋糕中切下越來越小的碎片。我們永遠不會用完比特幣，因為它是數字的，所以理論上它可以分成無限小的碎片。即使我們只有一個比特幣可以在整個全球經濟中共享，我們也可以像使用數十億個比特幣一樣使用它。

The specific number of bitcoins that can ever exist – 21 million – is arbitrary. More important is that the quantity of units is fixed to any number, because it means that the more it is adopted by people and institutions, the more that purchasing power rises for any tiny piece of the total supply.

比特幣可能存在的具體數量——2,100 萬——是任意的。更重要的是，單位數量固定為任意數量，因為這意味著人們和機構採用的單位越多，總供應量中任何一小部分的購買力就會上升得越多。

Bitcoin has been around for 15 years. Why has it just now approached a price of $100,000 per coin?

比特幣已經存在 15 年了。為什麼它的價格現在才接近每枚 10 萬美元？

Reason 1: Bitcoin has strong monetary qualities

理由一：比特幣具有很強的貨幣屬性

Predictability, scarcity, and immunity from state capture are just some of the qualities that make bitcoin powerful. Below is a comparison of bitcoin to other forms of money. Bitcoin’s price rises because millions of people who are free to make the decision to use bitcoin have chosen to do so. These people apparently see bitcoin as valuable insofar as it has strong monetary qualities.

可預測性、稀缺性和不受國家捕獲的影響只是比特幣強大的一些特質。以下是比特幣與其他形式貨幣的比較。比特幣的價格上漲是因為數百萬可以自由決定使用比特幣的人選擇這樣做。這些人顯然認為比特幣具有強大的貨幣品質，因此很有價值。

That is to say – at its core, bitcoin has value because people choose to use it, and that choice can logically be attributed to the qualities that allow it to serve as sound money.

也就是說，從本質上講，比特幣之所以有價值，是因為人們選擇使用它，而這種選擇在邏輯上可以歸因於使其成為健全貨幣的品質。

When bitcoin’s exchange rate with the dollar goes up and down, its fundamentals do not change. In this sense, the rising price can be viewed as an exercise in price discovery. Perhaps it was always worth $100,000 (or more), it’s just that not enough people understood it.

當比特幣與美元的匯率上漲或下跌時，其基本面不會改變。從這個意義上說，價格上漲可以被視為價格發現的一種實踐。也許它總是價值 100,000 美元（或更多），只是沒有足夠多的人理解它。

Reason 2: Bitcoin is now accessible by millions of more people – and billions of dollars worth of capital

原因 2：比特幣現在可供數百萬人使用，價值數十億美元的資本

Although newer platforms make it easy to purchase and store physical bitcoin, its learning curve has been preventing some investors from opting in. Now, with bitcoin spot ETFs available to money managers, traders, and individual investors from all walks of life, bitcoin is suddenly available in retirement accounts, family offices, and pension funds.

儘管較新的平台使購買和儲存實體比特幣變得容易，但其學習曲線一直阻止一些投資者選擇加入。現貨ETF，比特幣突然可用於退休帳戶、家族辦公室和退休基金。

Reason 3: A paradigm shift at multiple levels in U.S. government

原因三：美國政府多個層面的典範轉移

This newfound availability is amplified by the prospect of a new leadership in the federal government of the United States. The incoming presidential administration and key congressional leaders have stated in no uncertain terms that they intend to foster financial innovation in the United States by advancing bitcoin-friendly policies.

美國聯邦政府新領導層的前景進一步放大了這種新發現的可用性。即將上任的總統政府和國會主要領導人已明確表示，他們打算透過推動比特幣友善政策來促進美國的金融創新。

The announcement by Gary Gensler that he will resign from the SEC has caused the entire financial industry to sigh with relief. Many large financial firms will now have millions more dollars per month to reinvest in their businesses – money that they had been spending on defending themselves from capricious enforcement actions by a regulatory body gone completely off the rails. With strong, competent leadership replacing Gary Gensler at the SEC, consumers will be more protected from fiascos like FTX while also benefitting from powerful new financial products and services based on bitcoin.

加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 宣布辭去 SEC 職務，讓整個金融界鬆了一口氣。現在，許多大型金融公司每月將有數百萬美元用於對其業務進行再投資——這些錢是他們用來保護自己免受完全脫軌的監管機構反复無常的執法行動影響的。隨著SEC 強而有力、稱職的領導層接替加里·根斯勒(Gary Gensler)，消費者將得到更多保護，免受FTX 之類的慘敗，同時也受益於基於比特幣的強大新金融產品和服務。

Meanwhile, state governments are also making moves. Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives passed a law dubbed the Bitcoin Rights Bill and has proposed a state-run bitcoin reserve. How many more states will follow is anyone’s guess, but it’s a safe bet that the number will be greater than zero – and that the dynamics of FOMO are likely to take hold.

同時，各州政府也在採取行動。賓州眾議院通過了一項名為「比特幣權利法案」的法律，並提議設立一個國營比特幣儲備。到底還有多少州會效仿，誰也說不準，但可以肯定的是，這個數字將大於零，而且 FOMO 的動態很可能會持續下去。

The question on the minds of many who have watched bitcoin rise over 162% in the past year is, how high can it possibly go?

許多目睹比特幣在過去一年上漲超過 162% 的人心中的一個問題是，它可能會漲到多高？

Nobody can predict the price of bitcoin on any given date. But one thing is for sure – there is technically no limit to bitcoin

沒有人可以預測任何特定日期的比特幣價格。但有一件事是肯定的——比特幣在技術上沒有限制