比特币采矿已经改变 - 不再仅仅是价格

比特币矿业投资论文过去很简单 - 当比特币的价格飙升时，矿工蓬勃发展，当矿工跌倒时，他们遭受了苦难。但是在2024年，该方程式发生了变化。

Bitcoin Mining Stocks No Longer Move in Lockstep With BTC. Here’s Why.

比特币采矿库存不再使用BTC锁定。这就是原因。

Bitcoin mining stocks used to amplify bitcoin’s price movements, but in 2024, this pattern broke down. Here's a look at the shifting correlation and the key trends shaping the sector.

比特币采矿库存用于扩大比特币的价格变动，但在2024年，这种模式破裂了。以下是转移相关性和塑造该行业的关键趋势。

Bitcoin mining stocks behaved like a high-beta proxy for bitcoin in 2023, amplifying its moves – soaring higher when bitcoin rallied and crashing harder when it fell. But in 2024, this pattern broke down. Despite bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, mining stocks failed to reclaim their previous peaks.

比特币采矿库存的表现就像是2023年比特币的高贝塔代理，扩大了其动作 - 当比特币降落时，比特币升起并崩溃时，比特币的动作更高。但是在2024年，这种模式崩溃了。尽管比特币达到了新的历史新高，但采矿股还是未能收回以前的高峰。

The table below illustrates the shifting correlation between Hashrate Index’s Crypto Mining Index and bitcoin’s price, comparing weekly prices and returns before and during 2024:

下表说明了Hashrate Index的加密矿业指数与比特币的价格之间的转移相关性，比较了2024年之前和期间的每周价格和回报：

The takeaway is clear: Bitcoin mining stocks are no longer just a straightforward bet on bitcoin’s price. This divergence stems from four key trends shaping the sector:

要点很明确：比特币采矿股不再只是对比特币价格的直接下注。这种差异源于塑造该行业的四个关键趋势：

1. Institutional Bitcoin Adoption: The Advent of Spot ETFs

1。采用机构比特币：现场ETF的出现

The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 reshaped institutional investment in bitcoin. With ETFs amassing over 1.3 million BTC and surpassing $100 billion in assets under management, the appeal of mining stocks as a bitcoin proxy faded. Instead of using miners as an indirect exposure, capital flowed directly into bitcoin via ETFs, fundamentally shifting market dynamics.

2024年1月，斑点比特币ETF推出了对比特币的机构投资。随着ETF的收集超过130万BTC，管理的资产超过了1000亿美元的资产，因此采矿股票作为比特币代理的吸引力逐渐消失。资本不是将矿工作为间接曝光，而是通过ETF直接流入比特币，从根本上转移了市场动态。

2. The Halving and Its Aftermath: A Squeeze on Miner Economics

2。减半及其后果：挤压矿工经济学

Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024 cut the block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, slashing miners’ primary revenue source in half. Historically, post-halving bitcoin price surges have helped offset lower rewards, but this time, miners faced additional headwinds:

比特币在2024年4月的第四次减半，将块补贴从6.25 BTC降低到3.125 BTC，将矿工的主要收入来源削减了一半。从历史上看，备距比特币的价格飙升有助于抵消较低的奖励，但这次，矿工面临其他逆风：

While bitcoin’s price soared 120% throughout the year, miners struggled to maintain profitability, leading to consolidation and strategic pivots within the industry.

尽管全年比特币的价格飙升了120％，但矿工努力维持盈利能力，从而导致业内的整合和战略枢纽。

3. The Rise of Hashrate Derivatives: A Game-Changer for Miners

3。哈希衍生物的兴起：改变矿工的游戏规则

One of the most significant financial developments in bitcoin mining in 2024 was the rapid expansion of the hashrate derivatives market. This emerging market allowed miners to hedge future revenue streams and reduce exposure to bitcoin price volatility, fundamentally changing how they manage risk.

2024年，比特币开采最重要的财务发展之一是哈希衍生物市场的迅速扩展。这个新兴市场允许矿工对冲未来的收入来源，并减少对比特币价格波动的影响，从根本上改变了他们管理风险的方式。

Traditionally, mining revenues were at the mercy of bitcoin’s daily price swings, making it difficult for operators to forecast cash flows or secure financing. However, with the rise of hashrate forward markets, miners could sell future hashrate production at a fixed price, locking in revenue months in advance. This financial instrument functions similarly to commodity futures in the energy sector, where electricity producers pre-sell power contracts to stabilize income.

传统上，采矿收入受到比特币每日价格波动的摆布，使运营商难以预测现金流量或确保融资。但是，随着哈希拉特前进市场的兴起，矿工可以以固定价格出售未来的哈希特产量，并提前几个月锁定收入。该金融工具的运作类似于能源领域的商品期货，在该产品中，电力生产商预先售出的电力合同以稳定收入。

In 2024, these once-nascent markets saw explosive growth. Over-the-counter (OTC) volumes surged more than 500% year-over-year on Luxor’s hashrate forward market, with contract durations extending up to 12 months. Meanwhile, regulated exchange trading took a major step forward with Bitnomial launching hashrate futures, making it the first regulated exchange to offer a bitcoin mining derivative product.

在2024年，这些偶然的市场看到了爆炸性的增长。卢克索（Luxor）的哈希雷特（Hashrate）前进市场上的非处方（OTC）量飙升了超过500％，合同持续时间延长了12个月。同时，受监管的交易所交易迈出了一大步，迈向了BitNomial启动Hashrate Futures，这使其成为第一个提供比特币采矿衍生产品的受监管交易所。

The maturation of hashrate forward markets signals a new era in mining finance — one where miners have greater control over their revenue streams, better access to capital, and improved resilience against bitcoin price volatility.

Hashrate前进市场的成熟标志着采矿融资的一个新时代 - 矿工对收入流，更好地获得资本以及对比特币价格波动提高的弹性有更大的控制权。

4. Bitcoin Mining Meets AI & HPC: A Convergence of Industries

4.比特币矿业遇到AI＆HPC：行业的融合

With mining profits under pressure, many firms are pivoting to AI and high-performance computing (HPC) to diversify revenue. Bitcoin mining infrastructure shares key similarities with AI data centers – both require vast power and cooling capacity. However, the shift isn’t easy: AI infrastructure is more expensive per megawatt (millions vs. hundreds of thousands for bitcoin mining), requiring significant capital investment.

随着压力下的采矿利润，许多公司都在枢纽AI和高性能计算（HPC），以使收入多样化。比特币采矿基础设施与AI数据中心共享关键相似之处 - 既需要庞大的功率和冷却​​能力。但是，这种转变并不容易：AI基础设施每兆瓦更昂贵（数百万比特币采矿），需要大量资本投资。

Some miners are embracing hybrid models, allocating some of their computing power to AI workloads while maintaining bitcoin mining operations. Firms like HIVE Digital Technologies, Hut 8, Core Scientific, and Bit Digital have already made the leap, securing lucrative AI contracts to grow and stabilize their cash flows.

一些矿工正在拥抱混合模型，将其一些计算能力分配给AI工作负载，同时维护比特币采矿操作。像Hive Digital Technologies，Hut 8，Core Scientific和Bit Digital这样的公司已经取得了飞跃，确保了有利可图的AI合同以增长和稳定其现金流量。