随着 MPI 下跌和 ETF 流量转正，比特币矿商暗示预计 2025 年将盈利

矿工活动是比特币生态系统的重要组成部分，因此，其动态的变化可能提供重要的市场洞察。过去几个月收集的比特币矿工数据可以大致了解当前的情绪和信心水平。

Bitcoin miner activity is a key cog in the broader cryptocurrency machinery, and as such, any shift in its dynamics could offer valuable insight into the state of the market.

比特币矿工活动是更广泛的加密货币机制的关键齿轮，因此，其动态的任何变化都可以为市场状况提供有价值的见解。

Bitcoin miner data, as observed over the last few months, could give a rough estimate of the prevailing sentiment and level of confidence.

过去几个月观察到的比特币矿工数据可以粗略估计当前的情绪和信心水平。

In fact, a recent miner analysis on CryptoQuant revealed that Bitcoin miner flows into exchanges have dipped notably since April 2024. This observation suggested that miners have been holding on to more BTC in the hopes of selling it at higher prices.

事实上，CryptoQuant 最近的一项矿工分析显示，自 2024 年 4 月以来，流入交易所的比特币矿工流量显着下降。这一观察结果表明，矿工一直持有更多的 BTC，希望以更高的价格出售。

The same analysis revealed that the net unrealized profit and loss metric was still positive at press time. This seemed to be confirmation that Bitcoin miners are still sitting on unrealized profits, hence not contributing much to the sell pressure in the market.

同一分析显示，截至发稿时，未实现净损益指标仍然为正。这似乎证实了比特币矿商仍然坐拥未实现的利润，因此对市场的抛售压力没有太大贡献。

Is the anticipation of profits still on for Bitcoin miners?

比特币矿工的盈利预期还存在吗？

The aforementioned observation also seemed to align with the miner position index (MPI). A high MPI indicates that miners are moving more BTC, which usually translates to more sell pressure.

上述观察结果似乎也与矿工位置指数（MPI）相符。高 MPI 表明矿工正在转移更多的 BTC，这通常意味着更大的抛售压力。

This indicator's last peak was on 12 November, just a few weeks before the price achieved its historic peak.

该指标的最后一个峰值是在 11 月 12 日，就在价格达到历史峰值的几周前。

Source: CryptoQuant

来源：CryptoQuant

The MPI peak signaled strong sell pressure from Bitcoin miners, but it has since dipped notably, and it closed December near its bottom range – A sign that miner outflows cooled down considerably.

MPI 峰值预示着比特币矿商的强劲抛售压力，但此后显着下跌，12 月收盘接近底部区间 — — 这表明矿商资金外流大幅降温。

Despite this, however, Bitcoin miner reserves have been declining and hovered close to 12-month lows, at the time of observation. For context, there were slightly over 1.838 million in Bitcoin miner reserves towards the beginning of 2024. That figure has since dipped to 1.807 million BTC.

然而，尽管如此，在观察时，比特币矿商的储备一直在下降，并徘徊在 12 个月低点附近。就背景而言，到 2024 年初，比特币矿商的储备略高于 183.8 万比特币。此后，这一数字已降至 180.7 万比特币。

Source: CryptoQuant

来源：CryptoQuant

The declining miner reserves signaled that miners are still cashing out some profits, especially as the price soars higher. This is an expected outcome as miners still need to sell some of their coins to cover the cost of operations.

矿商储备金下降表明，矿商仍在兑现部分利润，尤其是在价格飙升的情况下。这是预期的结果，因为矿工仍然需要出售一些代币来支付运营成本。

The MPI confirmed that the rate of sell pressure has been declining as the market pulled back. In other words, Bitcoin miners may be holding on to some of their coins in anticipation of higher prices in 2025.

MPI 证实，随着市场回调，抛售压力一直在下降。换句话说，比特币矿工可能会持有部分比特币，以期 2025 年价格上涨。

Miner reserve upticks have been observed along the way, and the next major uptick could trigger another spike. Here, it's crucial to note that another key indicator to look out for is institutional demand. ETFs are usually at the forefront of signaling strong demand.

在此过程中，矿工储备金有所增加，下一次大幅增加可能会引发另一次飙升。在这里，值得注意的是另一个需要关注的关键指标是机构需求。 ETF 通常最先发出强劲需求的信号。

ETF flows were mostly negative in the second half of December and kicked off the first 2 days of 2025 in the negative. However, ETF flows on Friday turned back positive with a massive $908.1 million acquired. Sustained demand in the coming weeks could potentially pave the way for the price reclaiming the $100,000 price level.

ETF 流量在 12 月下半月大多为负值，并以负值拉开了 2025 年头 2 天的序幕。然而，周五 ETF 流量转为正值，获得了 9.081 亿美元的巨额资金。未来几周的持续需求可能会为价格重回 100,000 美元的价格水平铺平道路。