隨著 MPI 下跌和 ETF 流量轉正，比特幣礦商暗示預計 2025 年將獲利

礦工活動是比特幣生態系統的重要組成部分，因此，其動態的變化可能提供重要的市場洞察。過去幾個月收集的比特幣礦工數據可以大致了解當前的情緒和信心水平。

Bitcoin miner activity is a key cog in the broader cryptocurrency machinery, and as such, any shift in its dynamics could offer valuable insight into the state of the market.

比特幣礦工活動是更廣泛的加密貨幣機制的關鍵齒輪，因此，其動態的任何變化都可以為市場狀況提供有價值的見解。

Bitcoin miner data, as observed over the last few months, could give a rough estimate of the prevailing sentiment and level of confidence.

過去幾個月觀察到的比特幣礦工數據可以粗略估計當前的情緒和信心水平。

In fact, a recent miner analysis on CryptoQuant revealed that Bitcoin miner flows into exchanges have dipped notably since April 2024. This observation suggested that miners have been holding on to more BTC in the hopes of selling it at higher prices.

事實上，CryptoQuant 最近的一項礦工分析顯示，自2024 年4 月以來，流入交易所的比特幣礦工流量顯著下降。的價格出售。

The same analysis revealed that the net unrealized profit and loss metric was still positive at press time. This seemed to be confirmation that Bitcoin miners are still sitting on unrealized profits, hence not contributing much to the sell pressure in the market.

同一分析顯示，截至發稿時，未達到淨損益指標仍為正。這似乎證實了比特幣礦商仍然坐擁未實現的利潤，因此對市場的拋售壓力沒有太大貢獻。

Is the anticipation of profits still on for Bitcoin miners?

比特幣礦工的獲利預期還存在嗎？

The aforementioned observation also seemed to align with the miner position index (MPI). A high MPI indicates that miners are moving more BTC, which usually translates to more sell pressure.

上述觀察結果似乎也與礦工位置指數（MPI）相符。高 MPI 表示礦工正在轉移更多的 BTC，這通常意味著更大的拋售壓力。

This indicator's last peak was on 12 November, just a few weeks before the price achieved its historic peak.

該指標的最後一個高峰是在 11 月 12 日，就在價格達到歷史高峰的幾週前。

Source: CryptoQuant

來源：CryptoQuant

The MPI peak signaled strong sell pressure from Bitcoin miners, but it has since dipped notably, and it closed December near its bottom range – A sign that miner outflows cooled down considerably.

MPI 高峰預示著比特幣礦商的強勁拋售壓力，但此後顯著下跌，12 月收盤接近底部區間 — — 這表明礦商資金外流大幅降溫。

Despite this, however, Bitcoin miner reserves have been declining and hovered close to 12-month lows, at the time of observation. For context, there were slightly over 1.838 million in Bitcoin miner reserves towards the beginning of 2024. That figure has since dipped to 1.807 million BTC.

然而，儘管如此，在觀察時，比特幣礦商的儲備一直在下降，並徘徊在 12 個月低點附近。就背景而言，到 2024 年初，比特幣礦商的儲備略高於 183.8 萬比特幣。

Source: CryptoQuant

來源：CryptoQuant

The declining miner reserves signaled that miners are still cashing out some profits, especially as the price soars higher. This is an expected outcome as miners still need to sell some of their coins to cover the cost of operations.

礦商儲備金下降表明，礦商仍在兌現部分利潤，尤其是在價格飆升的情況下。這是預期的結果，因為礦工仍然需要出售一些代幣來支付營運成本。

The MPI confirmed that the rate of sell pressure has been declining as the market pulled back. In other words, Bitcoin miners may be holding on to some of their coins in anticipation of higher prices in 2025.

MPI 證實，隨著市場回調，拋售壓力一直在下降。換句話說，比特幣礦工可能會持有部分比特幣，以期 2025 年價格上漲。

Miner reserve upticks have been observed along the way, and the next major uptick could trigger another spike. Here, it's crucial to note that another key indicator to look out for is institutional demand. ETFs are usually at the forefront of signaling strong demand.

在此過程中，礦工儲備金有所增加，下一次大幅增加可能會引發另一次飆升。在這裡，值得注意的是另一個需要關注的關鍵指標是機構需求。 ETF 通常會先發出強勁需求的訊號。

ETF flows were mostly negative in the second half of December and kicked off the first 2 days of 2025 in the negative. However, ETF flows on Friday turned back positive with a massive $908.1 million acquired. Sustained demand in the coming weeks could potentially pave the way for the price reclaiming the $100,000 price level.

ETF 流量在 12 月下半月大多為負值，並以負值拉開了 2025 年 2 天的序幕。然而，週五 ETF 流量轉為正值，獲得了 9.081 億美元的巨額資金。未來幾週的持續需求可能會為價格重回 10 萬美元的價格水平鋪平道路。