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比特币矿工终于可以呼吸:尽管比特币在2024年4月减半,但他们的收入仍在36亿美元。
The Bitcoin miners can finally breathe a sigh of relief as their revenues have begun to stabilize at $3.6 billion despite the Bitcoin halving which occurred in April 2024. However, behind this apparent calm, a storm is brewing. Indeed, while the narrative around the Bitcoin price or the BTC/USD pair is interesting in its own right, it's also important to consider the broader ecosystem and the factors that influence it.
比特币矿工最终可以松了一口气,因为尽管比特币在2024年4月发生了一半,但他们的收入开始稳定在36亿美元。但是,在这种明显的平静背后,一场暴风雨正在酝酿中。确实,尽管围绕比特币价格或BTC/USD对的叙述本身很有趣,但考虑更广泛的生态系统及其影响的因素也很重要。
As such, we can observe that the mining sector is facing a crucial turning point with rising costs, dependence on Bitmain, and pressure on fees. The question remains: will this model be able to hold up much longer or is it headed for disaster?
因此,我们可以观察到,采矿部门正面临着一个关键的转折点,成本上升,对Bitmain的依赖以及对费用的压力。问题仍然存在:该模型能够支撑更长的时间,还是要遭受灾难?
Bitcoin miners have absorbed the shock of the last Bitcoin halving in April 2024 and managed to maintain their profitability. In the fourth quarter of 2024, their revenues reached $3.7 billion, and in early 2025, they are still estimated at $3.6 billion.
比特币矿工在2024年4月减少了最后一次比特币的震惊,并设法保持了盈利能力。在2024年的第四季度,他们的收入达到37亿美元,在2025年初,他们的收入仍为36亿美元。
This stability is rather surprising given the decrease in BTC generated per block and the reduction in margins. Moreover, the network is becoming increasingly power-hungry, which could pose a problem in the long term.
鉴于每个块产生的BTC减少以及边缘减小,这种稳定性令人惊讶。此外,该网络正在变得越来越渴望,从长远来看,这可能会带来问题。
Furthermore, a large portion—59% to 76%—of the global hashrate is concentrated in the hands of Bitmain, the main manufacturer of ASIC machines and a company that plays a crucial role in the ecosystem. However, this almost complete monopoly raises concerns, especially regarding the supply of ASIC machines, which is heavily dependent on trade relations between China and the United States.
此外,全球桥梁的大部分(59%至76%)集中在Bitmain的手中,Bitmain是ASIC机器的主要制造商,并且在生态系统中起着至关重要的作用。但是,这几乎完全垄断引起了人们的关注,尤其是对ASIC机器的供应,这在很大程度上依赖于中国与美国之间的贸易关系。
Recently, customs restrictions have slowed down some deliveries, forcing American Bitcoin miners to juggle with unpredictable delays and increasing uncertainty. This situation could have a significant impact on the miners' ability to operate smoothly and profitably.
最近,海关限制减慢了一些交付,迫使美国比特币矿工会以不可预测的延误和不确定性的增加而做法。这种情况可能会对矿工平稳和盈利的能力产生重大影响。
But to stay afloat, miners are innovating. Some are migrating to regions where energy is cheap, such as Africa, Latin America, or the wind farms in Texas. This mobility allows them to optimize their costs and adjust to local regulations.
但是要保持漂浮,矿工正在创新。有些人迁移到能源廉价的地区,例如非洲,拉丁美洲或德克萨斯州的风电场。这种移动性使他们能够优化成本并适应当地法规。
Others are taking a surprising turn by hosting data centers for artificial intelligence (AI). For instance, Core Scientific is already dedicating 200 MW to this activity. It's a clever bet that enables them to monetize existing infrastructures and hedge against Bitcoin fluctuations.
其他人则通过托管人工智能(AI)的数据中心进行了令人惊讶的转折。例如,核心科学已经将200兆瓦专用于这项活动。这是一个聪明的赌注,使他们能够将现有基础设施货币化并防树篱,以抵御比特币的波动。
In addition, we can note that only 1.33% of mining revenues come from transaction fees, a figure too low to offset the decline in block rewards. For the model to hold, there will need to be more on-chain activity.
此外,我们可以注意到,只有1.33%的采矿收入来自交易费用,这一数字太低,无法抵消块奖励的下降。为了使模型保持,将需要更多的链活动。
The question of whether the Lightning Network and layer 2 solutions will be the key to increasing transaction fees and usage of the Bitcoin network remains open.
闪电网络和第2层解决方案的问题将是增加交易费用和使用比特币网络的关键。
One thing is for sure: between store of value and medium of exchange, Bitcoin is evolving. And with it, the whole mining ecosystem is transforming to adapt to these changes and ensure its survival in an industry that is becoming increasingly competitive and regulated.
可以肯定的是:在价值存储和交换媒介之间,比特币正在发展。随之而来的是,整个采矿生态系统正在转变以适应这些变化,并确保其在越来越有竞争力和监管的行业中生存。
The last halving was a turning point for the Bitcoin miners, who had to adjust to the decrease in the block reward. They absorbed the shock and managed to maintain their profitability despite the rising costs and pressure on fees.
最后一半是比特币矿工的转折点,比特币矿工必须适应块奖励的减少。尽管成本上升和费用压力,他们仍吸收了震惊,并设法保持了盈利能力。
However, this stability is fragile and could be threatened by the increase in network difficulty, which could rise by 16% in April 2025 due to the arrival of new, more efficient machines.
但是,这种稳定性是脆弱的,可能会因网络难度的增加而威胁到,由于新型,更高效的机器的到来,2025年4月可能会上升16%。
Indeed, as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $30,000, the profitability of Bitcoin mining is becoming increasingly critical for the ecosystem's survival.
确实,随着比特币(BTC)的价格徘徊在30,000美元左右,比特币采矿的盈利能力越来越对生态系统的生存至关重要。
With the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, the block reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, putting pressure on miners to process more transactions to generate income from transaction fees.
随着比特币在2024年4月减半,块奖励从6.25 BTC降低到3.125 BTC,给矿工施加压力,以处理更多的交易,以从交易费用中产生收入。
According to blockchain data, the average transaction fee in March 2025 is around $1.33, which is minimal compared to the $30,000 value of each Bitcoin.
根据区块链数据,2025年3月的平均交易费用约为1.33美元,这是最少的,而每个比特币的价值为30,000美元。
This means that even with high transaction volumes, miners will derive minimal revenue from this source, especially with the increase in the hashrate and the arrival of new, more efficient machines, which will lead to more blocks being mined and an influx of new coins.
这意味着,即使有较高的交易量,矿工也会从该来源获得最低收入,尤其是随着哈希酸盐的增加和新的,更高效的机器的到来,这将导致开采更多的块和新硬币的涌入。
According to the data, the network difficulty could increase by 16% in April 2025, which could further reduce the transaction fee revenue for miners as the competition to mine blocks intensifies.
根据数据,2025年4月,网络难度可能会增加16%,这可以进一步减少矿工的交易收入,因为矿井的竞争加剧了。
In this context, the weakest miners may be forced to shut down if they are unable to keep up with the rising costs and decreasing revenues, which could have a cascading effect on the Bitcoin network.
在这种情况下,如果最弱的矿工无法跟上成本上升并减少收入,可能会被迫关闭,这可能会对比特币网络产生级联影响。
The fate of the Bitcoin ecosystem will depend on the miners' ability to adapt and optimize their operations to survive in this increasingly competitive and regulated industry.
比特币生态系统的命运将取决于矿工适应和优化其业务以在竞争日益激烈和受监管的行业中生存的能力。
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