就像地震仪录制了第一震颤一样，加密量听起来很警报：比特币正在准备重大改动。

根据该平台，持有三到六个月的170,000 BTC已经开始搬家

Like a seismograph detecting the first tremors, CryptoQuant is signaling a major shift in the Bitcoin landscape. According to the platform, 170,000 BTC, held for three to six months, are now on the move on-chain. This is a historic volume, usually observed only during periods of intense market instability.

就像地震仪检测第一个震颤一样，加密量信号表明比特币景观发生了重大变化。根据该平台的说法，持有三到六个月的170,000 BTC现在正在链上移动。这是一个历史悠久的卷，通常仅在市场不稳定时期观察到。

As the market flits between fleeting panic and the anchoring strategies of long-term holders, the scene could not be more different.

随着短暂的恐慌和长期持有人的锚定策略之​​间的市场飞涨，现场并没有什么不同。

Short-term Bitcoin holders: Catalysts of forecasted turbulence

短期比特币持有人：预测湍流的催化剂

Speculators are often seen as harbingers of bad news. CryptoQuant confirms this observation: short-term holders (STH), defined as those who bought Bitcoin less than six months ago, are making a massive shift of their assets.

投机者通常被视为坏消息的前提。加密量证实了这一观察结果：短期持有人（STH）被定义为不到六个月前购买比特币的人，他们的资产正在大规模转移。

CryptoQuant's data reveals that nearly 170,000 BTC are now in motion, a volume not seen since late 2021. This number is significant because every time this cohort moved their assets in such large quantities, it was followed by a violent jolt in the market.

CryptoQuant的数据表明，现在有近170,000 BTC正在运动，这是自2021年底以来未见的。这一数字很重要，因为每次该队列以如此大量的数量移动其资产时，都会在市场上发生暴力震动。

These holders are known for their extreme responsiveness to market narratives. The recent Bitcoin correction below $75,000 was sufficient to trigger rushed sales from STH. On average, 930 bitcoins are leaving their wallets daily to go to exchanges. This frenzy is driven by fear of losses or the pursuit of quick gains. Their psychology weakens the market: they have a low tolerance for fluctuations, and their decisions are more impulsive.

这些持有人以对市场叙事的极端反应而闻名。最近的比特币更正低于$ 75,000，足以触发STH的冲刺销售。平均而言，930个比特币每天将钱包离开去交流。这种狂热是由于担心损失或追求快速收益的驱动。他们的心理削弱了市场：他们对波动的容忍度较低，他们的决定更加冲动。

However, history does not always repeat itself identically. The CryptoQuant chart shows that previous periods of intense STH activity, like the one observed in December 2020, sometimes led to rallies as quickly as crashes. Back then, a similar dynamic unfolded, setting the stage for a 70% rebound. Today, uncertainty prevails.

但是，历史并不总是相同的重复。加密图表表明，像2020年12月观察到的那样，以前的激烈的STH活动时期有时会导致集会与崩溃一样迅速。当时，类似的动态展开，为70％的篮板奠定了基础。如今，不确定性盛行。

One thing is clear: the current activity of STH indicates an unstable landscape ready to tip. But in which direction will it fall? This question flings open the doors to speculation.

一件事很清楚：STH的当前活动表明了一个不稳定的景观。但是它会跌落在哪个方向上？这个问题揭开了投机的大门。

Facing the storm, long-term holders anchor the ship

面对暴风雨，长期持有人锚定了船

At the heart of this turbulence, another category of investors embodies the calm before the storm: long-term holders (LTH). These players, often called diamond hands, do not yield to the upheaval. Their daily sales? Only 529 bitcoins, almost half the amount sold by STH. A striking contrast, revealing an unwavering conviction.

这是这种动荡的核心，另一类的投资者体现了暴风雨前的平静：长期持有者（LTH）。这些球员通常被称为钻石手，不会屈服于动荡。他们的日常销售？只有529个比特币，几乎是STH出售的一半。一个惊人的对比，揭示了坚定的信念。

LTH play the role of an invisible stabilizer. Their strategic inertia balances the excesses of speculators. While STH fuel volatility, LTH's resistance limits the extent of corrections. CryptoQuant also highlights that this long-term conviction persists despite the shocks. It’s the mark of smart money, which does not flee but observes.

lth扮演着隐形稳定器的角色。他们的战略惯性平衡了投机者的过剩。尽管STH燃料波动性，但LTH的阻力限制了校正程度。加密量还强调，尽管遭受了震惊，这种长期信念仍然存在。这是聪明的钱的标志，不是逃跑而是观察。

This divide between patience and panic outlines a classic “shakeout” scenario. The less experienced abandon the ship, while veterans consolidate their positions. For CryptoQuant, this correction is not an exodus, but a necessary purge. A tightening where the market sheds its fragile participants, preparing the ground for a later phase.

耐心和恐慌之间的这种鸿沟概述了经典的“摇动”场景。经验较少的放弃了这艘船，而退伍军人则巩固了自己的位置。对于加密量，这种校正不是出埃及记，而是必要的清除。市场使市场散发出脆弱的参与者，为以后的阶段做准备。

Between STH, ready to sell at the first tremor, and LTH, unshaken, Bitcoin crosses a zone of extreme tension. CryptoQuant, with its data, offers a compass in this fog. The promised volatility could reward the bold who think that Bitcoin will follow gold as much as it could punish the impatient. In this theater, one lesson persists: the fiercest storms often reveal the strength of the moorings. Each investor must choose their side.

在STH之间，准备出售在第一次震颤中出售，比特币不动，越过了极端紧张的区域。加密量及其数据在此雾中提供了指南针。承诺的波动性可以奖励大胆的人，他们认为比特币将遵循黄金，并惩罚不耐烦的人。在这个剧院中，一堂课仍然存在：最激烈的风暴经常揭示出系泊的力量。每个投资者必须选择自己的一方。