比特币LTH发行放缓——牛市会结束吗？

比特币 (BTC) 的价格在过去一周下跌了 3.38%，迫使这种主要的加密货币在重大事件之后继续盘整。

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 3.38% in the past week. This recent struggling price performance continues to cast doubt over BTC’s future with several analysts speculating on the current status of a highly hyped crypto bull run.

比特币（BTC）价格在过去一周下跌了 3.38%。最近陷入困境的价格表现继续让人们对比特币的未来产生怀疑，一些分析师对高度炒作的加密货币牛市的现状进行了猜测。

In a recent post on X, blockchain analysis firm Glassnode provided some insights on Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) activity with possible implications on the asset’s price.

在最近关于 X 的一篇文章中，区块链分析公司 Glassnode 提供了一些关于比特币长期持有者 (LTH) 活动的见解，这些活动可能对该资产的价格产生影响。

Amidst the price rally in Q4 2024, Bitcoin LTH embarked on a selling spree with the majority of this offload being absorbed by short-term holders and new investors, who have been showcasing a heightened demand in this period.

在 2024 年第四季度的价格上涨期间，比特币 LTH 开始了一轮抛售热潮，其中大部分抛售被短期持有者和新投资者吸收，他们在此期间一直表现出需求的增加。

According to Glassnode, data on the LTH supply indicates this sell-off is still on but currently at a slower rate indicating that distribution has reached its peak.

据 Glassnode 称，LTH 供应数据表明，抛售仍在继续，但目前速度较慢，表明分布已达到顶峰。

A peak in LTH distribution indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, suggesting a change to BTC’s present bullish structure. However, historical data has shown price gains to still occur despite LTH distribution reaching a peak. This finding suggests that a local top in LTH distribution may not always equate to a certain macro price peak.

LTH 分布的峰值表明市场动态可能发生变化，表明 BTC 目前的看涨结构发生了变化。然而，历史数据显示，尽管 LTH 分布达到峰值，但价格仍然上涨。这一发现表明，LTH 分布的局部顶部可能并不总是等于某个宏观价格峰值。

Therefore, the recent reduction in LTH selling activity does not confirm the bull run is over as price momentum can still persist due to factors including increased demand from other market participants as seen with the STHs or heightened institutional interest.

因此，最近 LTH 销售活动的减少并不能确认牛市已经结束，因为由于其他市场参与者的需求增加（如 STH 所示）或机构兴趣增加等因素，价格势头仍然可以持续。

Interestingly, historical data has also proven the bull market cycle to end only when LTHs are holding BTC at a loss for an extended period. In this case,虧損持有時間週期， Glassnode highlights that the Bitcoin LTH supply in loss is at 0% i.e. no long-term holders are currently at a loss as they acquired BTC at far lower prices from today’s market.

有趣的是，历史数据也证明，只有当 LTH 长期亏损持有 BTC 时，牛市周期才会结束。在这种情况下，亏损持有时间周期，Glassnode 强调，比特币 LTH 供应损失率为 0%，即目前没有长期持有者处于亏损状态，因为他们以远低于当前市场的价格购买了 BTC。

Hence, the Bitcoin bullish market still appears to be fundamentally strong, reducing all likelihood of an imminent cycle top.

因此，比特币看涨市场的基本面仍然强劲，降低了即将出现周期顶部的可能性。

In other developments, the percentage of Bitcoin wealth of new market participants has grown significantly in recent weeks as long-term holders gainfully distributed their assets. According to data from Glassnode, these new BTC investors now own 49.6% of the network liquidity suggesting they control almost half of Bitcoin being actively traded, thereby reshaping ownership patterns.

在其他事态发展中，随着长期持有者有利地分配其资产，新市场参与者的比特币财富比例在最近几周显着增长。根据 Glassnode 的数据，这些新的 BTC 投资者现在拥有 49.6% 的网络流动性，这表明他们控制着近一半的活跃交易的比特币，从而重塑了所有权模式。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $94,191 following a 0.88% gain in the past day. However, the asset’s daily trading volume has decreased by 3.89% and is now valued at $58.46 billion.

截至撰写本文时，比特币继续以 94,191 美元交易，此前一天上涨 0.88%。然而，该资产的日交易量下降了3.89%，目前估值为584.6亿美元。