比特幣 LTH 發行放緩——牛市會結束嗎？

比特幣 (BTC) 的價格在過去一周下跌了 3.38%，迫使這種主要的加密貨幣在重大事件後繼續盤整。

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 3.38% in the past week. This recent struggling price performance continues to cast doubt over BTC’s future with several analysts speculating on the current status of a highly hyped crypto bull run.

比特幣（BTC）價格在過去一周下跌了 3.38%。最近陷入困境的價格表現繼續讓人們對比特幣的未來產生懷疑，一些分析師對高度炒作的加密貨幣牛市的現狀進行了猜測。

In a recent post on X, blockchain analysis firm Glassnode provided some insights on Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) activity with possible implications on the asset’s price.

在最近關於 X 的一篇文章中，區塊鏈分析公司 Glassnode 提供了一些關於比特幣長期持有者 (LTH) 活動的見解，這些活動可能對該資產的價格產生影響。

Amidst the price rally in Q4 2024, Bitcoin LTH embarked on a selling spree with the majority of this offload being absorbed by short-term holders and new investors, who have been showcasing a heightened demand in this period.

在 2024 年第四季的價格上漲期間，比特幣 LTH 開始了一輪拋售熱潮，其中大部分拋售被短期持有者和新投資者吸收，他們在此期間一直表現出需求的增加。

According to Glassnode, data on the LTH supply indicates this sell-off is still on but currently at a slower rate indicating that distribution has reached its peak.

據 Glassnode 稱，LTH 供應數據表明，拋售仍在繼續，但目前速度較慢，表明分佈已達到頂峰。

A peak in LTH distribution indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, suggesting a change to BTC’s present bullish structure. However, historical data has shown price gains to still occur despite LTH distribution reaching a peak. This finding suggests that a local top in LTH distribution may not always equate to a certain macro price peak.

LTH 分佈的峰值表明市場動態可能發生變化，表明 BTC 目前的看漲結構發生了變化。然而，歷史數據顯示，儘管 LTH 分佈達到峰值，但價格仍然上漲。這項發現表明，LTH 分佈的局部頂部可能並不總是等於某個宏觀價格高峰。

Therefore, the recent reduction in LTH selling activity does not confirm the bull run is over as price momentum can still persist due to factors including increased demand from other market participants as seen with the STHs or heightened institutional interest.

因此，最近 LTH 銷售活動的減少並不能確認牛市已經結束，因為由於其他市場參與者的需求增加（如 STH 所示）或機構興趣增加等因素，價格動能仍然可以持續。

Interestingly, historical data has also proven the bull market cycle to end only when LTHs are holding BTC at a loss for an extended period. In this case,虧損持有時間週期， Glassnode highlights that the Bitcoin LTH supply in loss is at 0% i.e. no long-term holders are currently at a loss as they acquired BTC at far lower prices from today’s market.

有趣的是，歷史數據也證明，只有當 LTH 長期虧損持有 BTC 時，牛市週期才會結束。在這種情況下，虧損持有時間週期，Glassnode 強調，比特幣 LTH 供應損失率為 0%，即目前沒有長期持有者處於虧損狀態，因為他們以遠低於當前市場的價格購買了 BTC。

Hence, the Bitcoin bullish market still appears to be fundamentally strong, reducing all likelihood of an imminent cycle top.

因此，比特幣看漲市場的基本面仍然強勁，降低了即將出現週期頂部的可能性。

In other developments, the percentage of Bitcoin wealth of new market participants has grown significantly in recent weeks as long-term holders gainfully distributed their assets. According to data from Glassnode, these new BTC investors now own 49.6% of the network liquidity suggesting they control almost half of Bitcoin being actively traded, thereby reshaping ownership patterns.

在其他事態發展中，隨著長期持有者有利地分配其資產，新市場參與者的比特幣財富比例在最近幾週顯著增長。根據 Glassnode 的數據，這些新的 BTC 投資者現在擁有 49.6% 的網路流動性，這表明他們控制著近一半的活躍交易的比特幣，從而重塑了所有權模式。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $94,191 following a 0.88% gain in the past day. However, the asset’s daily trading volume has decreased by 3.89% and is now valued at $58.46 billion.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣繼續以 94,191 美元交易，此前一天上漲 0.88%。然而，該資產的每日交易量下降了3.89%，目前估值為584.6億美元。