比特币的2025年旅程尚未交付爆炸性的牛市

比特币的2025年旅程并未带来许多预期的爆炸性牛市激增。达到100,000美元以上的顶峰之后，2025比特币价格急剧回落

Bitcoin’s 2025 journey has yet to deliver the explosive bull market surge many anticipated. After attaining highs above $100,000, the cryptocurrency experienced a sharp retracement to lows of $75,000, sparking heated debate among investors and analysts about where we stand in the cycle. Cutting through the noise, we'll be leveraging on-chain indicators, macro data, and a touch of technical analysis to determine if the bull market remains intact or if a deeper correction looms in Q3 2025.

比特币的2025年旅程尚未提供许多预期的爆炸性牛市。在达到100,000美元以上的高价之后，加密货币经历了75,000美元的急剧回溯，引发了投资者和分析师在周期中立场的激烈辩论。削减噪音，我们将利用链上指标，宏观数据和技术分析来确定牛市是否保持完好无损，或者Q3 2025中更深层的校正临实。

As we navigate this turbulent landscape, we'll be examining key metrics like MVRV Z-Score, Value Days Destroyed (VDD), and Bitcoin capital flows to provide critical insights into the market’s next move.

当我们浏览这一动荡的景观时，我们将检查关键指标，例如MVRV Z分数，Value Days被破坏（VDD）和比特币资本流量，以提供对市场下一步行动的关键见解。

Is Bitcoin’s 2025 Pullback Healthy or Signals the End of the Cycle?

比特币的2025回拔是健康的还是周期结束的信号？

A strong starting point for our assessment is the MVRV Z-Score, a trusted on-chain indicator that compares market value to realized value. After hitting 3.36 at Bitcoin’s peak of $100,000, the MVRV Z-Score dropped to 1.43, aligning with the Bitcoin price decline from $100,000 to $75,000. While a 30% correction may seem alarming, recent data shows the MVRV Z-Score rebounding from its low of 1.43.

我们评估的一个强大的起点是MVRV Z-Score，这是一个可信赖的链上指标，将市场价值与已实现价值进行比较。在比特币高峰达到100,000美元的峰值之后，MVRV Z分数下降到1.43，与比特币的价格从100,000美元下降到75,000美元。虽然30％的校正似乎令人震惊，但最近的数据显示MVRV Z得分从其低点为1.43起。

Now, if we rewind to previous bull markets, MVRV Z-Score levels around 1.43 often marked local bottoms, not tops, in the 2017 and 2021 bull markets. These pullbacks were followed by resumed uptrends, suggesting the current correction aligns with healthy bull cycle dynamics.

现在，如果我们倒带到以前的牛市，MVRV Z得分水平约为1.43，通常标志着2017年和2021年牛市的本地底部，而不是顶部。这些回调之后是恢复的上升趋势，表明当前的校正与健康的牛周期动力学对齐。

While investor confidence has certainly been shaken by this unexpected turn of events, if we zoom out and consider the bigger picture, this move fits the historical patterns of Bitcoin market cycles.

尽管这次意外的事件肯定会激动投资者的信心，但如果我们缩小并考虑更大的情况，此举符合比特币市场周期的历史模式。

How Smart Money Is Guiding the 2025 Bitcoin Bull Market

聪明的钱如何指导2025比特币牛市

Another critical on-chain indicator, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple, tracks the velocity of BTC transactions weighted by holding periods. Spikes in VDD signal profit-taking by experienced holders, while low levels indicate accumulation. Currently, VDD is in the “green zone,” mirroring levels seen in late bear markets or early bull market recoveries.

另一个关键的链链指标是，价值日被破坏（VDD）倍数，跟踪通过保持周期加权的BTC交易的速度。经验丰富的持有人的VDD信号利润获利中的峰值，而低水平表示积累。目前，VDD处于“绿色区域”，反映了晚期熊市或早期牛市的回收率。

Following Bitcoin’s reversal from $100,000, the low VDD suggests the end of a profit-taking phase, with long-term holders accumulating in anticipation of higher prices.

在比特币从100,000美元的逆转逆转之后，低VDD表明了一个利润阶段的结束，长期持有人会积累以预期更高的价格。

The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows chart from Chainlogics further illuminates this trend, breaking down realized capital by coin age. Near the $106,000 peak, new market entrants (<1 month) drove a spike in activity, signaling FOMO-driven buying. Since the pullback, this group’s activity has cooled to levels typical of early-to-mid bull markets.

来自Chainlogics的比特币周期流量图进一步阐明了这一趋势，破坏了硬币年龄的实现资本。在$ 106,000的峰值附近，新的市场参与者（<1个月）的活动激增，信号是FOMO驱动的购买。自从回调以来，该小组的活动已冷却至早期到中间牛市的典型水平。

In contrast, the 1–2 year cohort—often macro-savvy investors—is increasing activity, accumulating at lower prices. This shift mirrors Bitcoin accumulation patterns from 2020 and 2021, where long-term holders bought during dips, setting the stage for bull cycle rallies.

相比之下，1 - 2年的队列（通常是精通宏观的投资者）正在增加活动，以较低的价格积累。这种轮班反映了比特币的积累模式，从2020年和2021年开始，长期持有人在倾角期间购买，为公牛循环集会奠定了基础。

Where Are We In The 2025 Bitcoin Market Cycle?

在2025年比特币市场周期中，我们在哪里？

Zooming out further, the Bitcoin market cycle can be divided into three phases: bear, recovery, and exponential bull. Past bear markets (2015, 2018) lasted 13–14 months, and the most recent bear market followed suit at 14 months. Recovery phases typically span 23–26 months, and the current cycle falls within this range. However, unlike past bull markets, Bitcoin’s breakout above previous highs was followed by a pullback rather than an immediate surge.

进一步缩小，比特币市场周期可以分为三个阶段：熊，恢复和指数公牛。过去的熊市（2015，2018）持续了13-14个月，最新的熊市在14个月时也持续了。恢复阶段通常跨度为23-26个月，当前周期落在此范围内。但是，与过去的牛市不同，比特币的突破超过了先前的高点，随后是回调，而不是立即激增。

This pullback may signal a higher low, setting up the exponential phase of the bull market. Based on past cycles’ 9–11-month exponential phases, the price apex could occur around September 2025, assuming the bull cycle resumes.

这种回调可能标志着更高的低点，建立了牛市的指数阶段。基于过去周期的9-11个月指数阶段，价格先端可能会在2025年9月左右发生，假设公牛循环恢复。

Finally, we’ll be keeping an eye on macroeconomic risks. The S&P 500 vs. Bitcoin Correlation chart from CCChart shows Bitcoin remains tightly linked to U.S. equities. With fears of a global recession persisting, weakness in traditional markets might cap Bitcoin’s near-term rally potential.

最后，我们将密切关注宏观经济风险。 CCCHART的标准普尔500与比特币相关图表显示，比特币仍然与美国股票密切相关。由于担心全球衰退的持续存在，传统市场的弱点可能会限制比特币的近期集会潜力。

Monitoring these macro risks will be crucial, as any significant deterioration in the equity market could trigger a deeper correction in Q3 2025, even if on-chain data remains supportive.

监测这些宏风险将是至关重要的，因为即使链接数据仍然支持，股票市场中的任何重大恶化都可能触发更深层次的纠正。

Key On-Chain Indicators Point To Long-Term Holder Accumulation

关键的链链指标指向长期持有人的积累

Our analysis of key on-chain indicators, MVRV Z-Score, Value Days Destroyed, and Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows, points to healthy, cycle-consistent behavior and long-term

我们对关键的链链指标，MVRV Z得分，价值天数和比特币周期资本流动，指向健康，循环一致的行为和长期的分析