比特幣的2025年旅程尚未交付爆炸性的牛市

比特幣的2025年旅程並未帶來許多預期的爆炸性牛市激增。達到100,000美元以上的頂峰之後，2025比特幣價格急劇回落

Bitcoin’s 2025 journey has yet to deliver the explosive bull market surge many anticipated. After attaining highs above $100,000, the cryptocurrency experienced a sharp retracement to lows of $75,000, sparking heated debate among investors and analysts about where we stand in the cycle. Cutting through the noise, we'll be leveraging on-chain indicators, macro data, and a touch of technical analysis to determine if the bull market remains intact or if a deeper correction looms in Q3 2025.

比特幣的2025年旅程尚未提供許多預期的爆炸性牛市。在達到100,000美元以上的高價之後，加密貨幣經歷了75,000美元的急劇回溯，引發了投資者和分析師在周期中立場的激烈辯論。削減噪音，我們將利用鏈上指標，宏觀數據和技術分析來確定牛市是否保持完好無損，或者Q3 2025中更深層的校正臨實。

As we navigate this turbulent landscape, we'll be examining key metrics like MVRV Z-Score, Value Days Destroyed (VDD), and Bitcoin capital flows to provide critical insights into the market’s next move.

當我們瀏覽這一動蕩的景觀時，我們將檢查關鍵指標，例如MVRV Z分數，Value Days被破壞（VDD）和比特幣資本流量，以提供對市場下一步行動的關鍵見解。

Is Bitcoin’s 2025 Pullback Healthy or Signals the End of the Cycle?

比特幣的2025回拔是健康的還是周期結束的信號？

A strong starting point for our assessment is the MVRV Z-Score, a trusted on-chain indicator that compares market value to realized value. After hitting 3.36 at Bitcoin’s peak of $100,000, the MVRV Z-Score dropped to 1.43, aligning with the Bitcoin price decline from $100,000 to $75,000. While a 30% correction may seem alarming, recent data shows the MVRV Z-Score rebounding from its low of 1.43.

我們評估的一個強大的起點是MVRV Z-Score，這是一個可信賴的鏈上指標，將市場價值與已實現價值進行比較。在比特幣高峰達到100,000美元的峰值之後，MVRV Z分數下降到1.43，與比特幣的價格從100,000美元下降到75,000美元。雖然30％的校正似乎令人震驚，但最近的數據顯示MVRV Z得分從其低點為1.43起。

Now, if we rewind to previous bull markets, MVRV Z-Score levels around 1.43 often marked local bottoms, not tops, in the 2017 and 2021 bull markets. These pullbacks were followed by resumed uptrends, suggesting the current correction aligns with healthy bull cycle dynamics.

現在，如果我們倒帶到以前的牛市，MVRV Z得分水平約為1.43，通常標誌著2017年和2021年牛市的本地底部，而不是頂部。這些回調之後是恢復的上升趨勢，表明當前的校正與健康的牛週期動力學對齊。

While investor confidence has certainly been shaken by this unexpected turn of events, if we zoom out and consider the bigger picture, this move fits the historical patterns of Bitcoin market cycles.

儘管這次意外的事件肯定會激動投資者的信心，但如果我們縮小並考慮更大的情況，此舉符合比特幣市場週期的歷史模式。

How Smart Money Is Guiding the 2025 Bitcoin Bull Market

聰明的錢如何指導2025比特幣牛市

Another critical on-chain indicator, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple, tracks the velocity of BTC transactions weighted by holding periods. Spikes in VDD signal profit-taking by experienced holders, while low levels indicate accumulation. Currently, VDD is in the “green zone,” mirroring levels seen in late bear markets or early bull market recoveries.

另一個關鍵的鍊鍊指標是，價值日被破壞（VDD）倍數，跟踪通過保持週期加權的BTC交易的速度。經驗豐富的持有人的VDD信號利潤獲利中的峰值，而低水平表示積累。目前，VDD處於“綠色區域”，反映了晚期熊市或早期牛市的回收率。

Following Bitcoin’s reversal from $100,000, the low VDD suggests the end of a profit-taking phase, with long-term holders accumulating in anticipation of higher prices.

在比特幣從100,000美元的逆轉逆轉之後，低VDD表明了一個利潤階段的結束，長期持有人會積累以預期更高的價格。

The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows chart from Chainlogics further illuminates this trend, breaking down realized capital by coin age. Near the $106,000 peak, new market entrants (<1 month) drove a spike in activity, signaling FOMO-driven buying. Since the pullback, this group’s activity has cooled to levels typical of early-to-mid bull markets.

來自Chainlogics的比特幣週期流量圖進一步闡明了這一趨勢，破壞了硬幣年齡的實現資本。在$ 106,000的峰值附近，新的市場參與者（<1個月）的活動激增，信號是FOMO驅動的購買。自從回調以來，該小組的活動已冷卻至早期到中間牛市的典型水平。

In contrast, the 1–2 year cohort—often macro-savvy investors—is increasing activity, accumulating at lower prices. This shift mirrors Bitcoin accumulation patterns from 2020 and 2021, where long-term holders bought during dips, setting the stage for bull cycle rallies.

相比之下，1 - 2年的隊列（通常是精通宏觀的投資者）正在增加活動，以較低的價格積累。這種輪班反映了比特幣的積累模式，從2020年和2021年開始，長期持有人在傾角期間購買，為公牛循環集會奠定了基礎。

Where Are We In The 2025 Bitcoin Market Cycle?

在2025年比特幣市場週期中，我們在哪裡？

Zooming out further, the Bitcoin market cycle can be divided into three phases: bear, recovery, and exponential bull. Past bear markets (2015, 2018) lasted 13–14 months, and the most recent bear market followed suit at 14 months. Recovery phases typically span 23–26 months, and the current cycle falls within this range. However, unlike past bull markets, Bitcoin’s breakout above previous highs was followed by a pullback rather than an immediate surge.

進一步縮小，比特幣市場週期可以分為三個階段：熊，恢復和指數公牛。過去的熊市（2015，2018）持續了13-14個月，最新的熊市在14個月時也持續了。恢復階段通常跨度為23-26個月，當前週期落在此範圍內。但是，與過去的牛市不同，比特幣的突破超過了先前的高點，隨後是回調，而不是立即激增。

This pullback may signal a higher low, setting up the exponential phase of the bull market. Based on past cycles’ 9–11-month exponential phases, the price apex could occur around September 2025, assuming the bull cycle resumes.

這種回調可能標誌著更高的低點，建立了牛市的指數階段。基於過去週期的9-11個月指數階段，價格先端可能會在2025年9月左右發生，假設公牛循環恢復。

Finally, we’ll be keeping an eye on macroeconomic risks. The S&P 500 vs. Bitcoin Correlation chart from CCChart shows Bitcoin remains tightly linked to U.S. equities. With fears of a global recession persisting, weakness in traditional markets might cap Bitcoin’s near-term rally potential.

最後，我們將密切關注宏觀經濟風險。 CCCHART的標準普爾500與比特幣相關圖表顯示，比特幣仍然與美國股票密切相關。由於擔心全球衰退的持續存在，傳統市場的弱點可能會限制比特幣的近期集會潛力。

Monitoring these macro risks will be crucial, as any significant deterioration in the equity market could trigger a deeper correction in Q3 2025, even if on-chain data remains supportive.

監測這些宏風險將是至關重要的，因為即使鏈接數據仍然支持，股票市場中的任何重大惡化都可能觸發更深層次的糾正。

Key On-Chain Indicators Point To Long-Term Holder Accumulation

關鍵的鍊鍊指標指向長期持有人的積累

Our analysis of key on-chain indicators, MVRV Z-Score, Value Days Destroyed, and Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows, points to healthy, cycle-consistent behavior and long-term

我們對關鍵的鍊鍊指標，MVRV Z得分，價值天數和比特幣週期資本流動，指向健康，循環一致的行為和長期的分析