Bitcoin's 2025 Journey Hasn't Delivered the Explosive Bull Market

Bitcoin's 2025 journey hasn't delivered the explosive bull market surge many expected. After peaking above $100,000, the 2025 Bitcoin price retraced sharply

Bitcoin’s 2025 journey has yet to deliver the explosive bull market surge many anticipated. After attaining highs above $100,000, the cryptocurrency experienced a sharp retracement to lows of $75,000, sparking heated debate among investors and analysts about where we stand in the cycle. Cutting through the noise, we'll be leveraging on-chain indicators, macro data, and a touch of technical analysis to determine if the bull market remains intact or if a deeper correction looms in Q3 2025.

As we navigate this turbulent landscape, we'll be examining key metrics like MVRV Z-Score, Value Days Destroyed (VDD), and Bitcoin capital flows to provide critical insights into the market’s next move.

Is Bitcoin’s 2025 Pullback Healthy or Signals the End of the Cycle?

A strong starting point for our assessment is the MVRV Z-Score, a trusted on-chain indicator that compares market value to realized value. After hitting 3.36 at Bitcoin’s peak of $100,000, the MVRV Z-Score dropped to 1.43, aligning with the Bitcoin price decline from $100,000 to $75,000. While a 30% correction may seem alarming, recent data shows the MVRV Z-Score rebounding from its low of 1.43.

Now, if we rewind to previous bull markets, MVRV Z-Score levels around 1.43 often marked local bottoms, not tops, in the 2017 and 2021 bull markets. These pullbacks were followed by resumed uptrends, suggesting the current correction aligns with healthy bull cycle dynamics.

While investor confidence has certainly been shaken by this unexpected turn of events, if we zoom out and consider the bigger picture, this move fits the historical patterns of Bitcoin market cycles.

How Smart Money Is Guiding the 2025 Bitcoin Bull Market

Another critical on-chain indicator, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple, tracks the velocity of BTC transactions weighted by holding periods. Spikes in VDD signal profit-taking by experienced holders, while low levels indicate accumulation. Currently, VDD is in the “green zone,” mirroring levels seen in late bear markets or early bull market recoveries.

Following Bitcoin’s reversal from $100,000, the low VDD suggests the end of a profit-taking phase, with long-term holders accumulating in anticipation of higher prices.

The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows chart from Chainlogics further illuminates this trend, breaking down realized capital by coin age. Near the $106,000 peak, new market entrants (<1 month) drove a spike in activity, signaling FOMO-driven buying. Since the pullback, this group’s activity has cooled to levels typical of early-to-mid bull markets.

In contrast, the 1–2 year cohort—often macro-savvy investors—is increasing activity, accumulating at lower prices. This shift mirrors Bitcoin accumulation patterns from 2020 and 2021, where long-term holders bought during dips, setting the stage for bull cycle rallies.

Where Are We In The 2025 Bitcoin Market Cycle?

Zooming out further, the Bitcoin market cycle can be divided into three phases: bear, recovery, and exponential bull. Past bear markets (2015, 2018) lasted 13–14 months, and the most recent bear market followed suit at 14 months. Recovery phases typically span 23–26 months, and the current cycle falls within this range. However, unlike past bull markets, Bitcoin’s breakout above previous highs was followed by a pullback rather than an immediate surge.

This pullback may signal a higher low, setting up the exponential phase of the bull market. Based on past cycles’ 9–11-month exponential phases, the price apex could occur around September 2025, assuming the bull cycle resumes.

Finally, we’ll be keeping an eye on macroeconomic risks. The S&P 500 vs. Bitcoin Correlation chart from CCChart shows Bitcoin remains tightly linked to U.S. equities. With fears of a global recession persisting, weakness in traditional markets might cap Bitcoin’s near-term rally potential.

Monitoring these macro risks will be crucial, as any significant deterioration in the equity market could trigger a deeper correction in Q3 2025, even if on-chain data remains supportive.

Key On-Chain Indicators Point To Long-Term Holder Accumulation

Our analysis of key on-chain indicators, MVRV Z-Score, Value Days Destroyed, and Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows, points to healthy, cycle-consistent behavior and long-term