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比特币所有指标:一个综合指标,可指导您的比特币投资决策

2025/02/07 21:57

如果我们拥有一个无所不包的指标来指导比特币投资决策,那不是很好吗?这正是创建的内容,即比特币所有指标。

比特币所有指标:一个综合指标,可指导您的比特币投资决策

Bitcoin Magazine Pro recently unveiled the Bitcoin Everything Indicator, an all-encompassing metric designed to streamline Bitcoin analysis and investment decision-making. This indicator consolidates multiple metrics into a single framework, aiming to provide a more holistic understanding of Bitcoin's price movements.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro最近发布了Bitcoin Everything指标,这是一个无所不包的指标,旨在简化比特币分析和投资决策。该指标将多个指标合并为一个框架,旨在提供对比特币价格变动的更全面的理解。

Investors and analysts often rely on various metrics, such as on-chain data, technical analysis, and derivative charts, to make informed decisions. However, focusing too much on one aspect can lead to an incomplete understanding of Bitcoin's complex dynamics. The Bitcoin Everything Indicator attempts to solve this by integrating key components into one clear metric.

投资者和分析师通常依靠各种指标,例如链上数据,技术分析和衍生图表来做出明智的决定。但是,过多地关注一个方面可能会导致对比特币复杂动态的不完全理解。比特币所有指标试图通过将密钥组件集成到一个清晰的度量标准中来解决此问题。

Global liquidity cycles have had a major influence on BTC price action, especially when it comes to the massive liquidity injections and withdrawals. This indicator tracks the correlation between Bitcoin and broader financial markets, particularly in terms of Global M2 money supply. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin has typically appreciated, and vice versa.

全球流动性周期对BTC价格行动产生了重大影响,尤其是在大量流动性注射和提款方面。该指标跟踪比特币与更广泛的金融市场之间的相关性,尤其是在全球M2货币供应方面。当流动性扩大时,比特币通常会赞赏,反之亦然。

Fundamental factors like Bitcoin's halving cycles and miner strength also play an essential role in its valuation. This indicator incorporates metrics that assess these aspects. Halvings decrease the new Bitcoin supply, but their impact on price appreciation has diminished as over 94% of Bitcoin's total supply is already in circulation. However, miner profitability remains crucial. The Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to historical averages, provides insights into market cycles. Historically, when miner profitability is strong, Bitcoin tends to be in a favorable position.

比特币的减半周期和矿工强度等基本因素在其估值中也起着至关重要的作用。该指标包含评估这些方面的指标。过度降低了新的比特币供应,但是它们对价格升值的影响却降低了,因为比特币总供应的94%以上已经流通。但是,矿工的盈利能力仍然至关重要。 PUELL多重倍数衡量了相对于历史平均值的矿工收入,它为市场周期提供了见解。从历史上看,当矿工盈利能力很强时,比特币往往处于有利的位置。

On-chain indicators help assess Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics, which are crucial for understanding market trends. Several key on-chain metrics are integrated into this indicator to provide a comprehensive view of supply and demand. For example, the MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap (average purchase price of all coins) to identify accumulation and distribution zones, highlighting when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

链上指标有助于评估比特币的供求动态,这对于了解市场趋势至关重要。该指标将几个关键的链上指标集成到该指标中,以提供供求的全面观点。例如,MVRV Z分数将比特币的市值与已实现的上限(所有硬币的平均购买价格)进行了比较,以识别累积和分销区,从而突出了何时比特币被高估或被低估了。

Another critical on-chain metric is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which examines the profitability of coins being spent. This provides insights into investor sentiment and realized gains/losses. When Bitcoin holders realize massive profits, it often signals a market peak, whereas high losses indicate a market bottom.

另一个关键的链链指标是支出的产出利润率(SOPR),它检查了所花费的硬币的获利能力。这提供了对投资者情绪的见解,并实现了收益/损失。当比特币持有人实现巨额利润时,它通常会标志着市场的峰值,而高损失表示市场底层。

Technical indicators play a role in assessing Bitcoin's price action and momentum. Among the many technical indicators available, the Bitcoin Crosby Ratio is included in this indicator. It assesses Bitcoin's overextended or discounted conditions purely based on price action. This ensures that market sentiment and momentum are also accounted for in the Bitcoin Everything Indicator.

技术指标在评估比特币的价格行动和动力方面发挥了作用。在可用的许多技术指标中,该指标包括比特币Crosby比率。它纯粹基于价格行动来评估比特币过度延伸或打折的条件。这样可以确保在比特币中也考虑了市场情绪和动力。

Finally, network usage can offer vital clues about Bitcoin's strength and activity levels. This indicator incorporates the Active Address Sentiment Indicator (AASI), which examines the percentage change in active addresses over 28 days. A rise in active addresses generally confirms a bullish trend, while stagnation or decline may signal price weakness.

最后,网络使用可以提供有关比特币的强度和活动水平的重要线索。该指标包含了主动地址情感指标(AASI),该指标检查了28天内活动地址的百分比变化。主动地址的上升通常证实了看涨的趋势,而停滞或下降可能表示价格疲软。

By blending these various metrics, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator ensures that no single factor is given undue weight. Unlike models that rely too heavily on specific signals, such as the MVRV Z-Score or the Pi Cycle Top, this indicator distributes influence equally across multiple categories. This prevents overfitting and allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions.

通过混合这些各种指标,比特币所有指标确保没有任何一个因素给予不适当的重量。与过于严重依赖特定信号的模型,例如MVRV z得分或PI循环顶部,该指标在多个类别上平均分布影响。这样可以防止过度拟合,并允许模型适应不断变化的市场状况。

One of the most striking findings is that the Bitcoin Everything Indicator has outperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy since Bitcoin was valued at under $6. Using a strategy of accumulating Bitcoin during oversold conditions and gradually selling in overbought zones, investors using this model would have significantly increased their portfolio's performance with lower drawdowns.

最引人注目的发现之一是,比特币所有指标的表现都超出了简单的购买策略,因为比特币的价值低于6美元。使用在超售条件下积累比特币并逐渐销售过多购买区域的策略,使用此模型的投资者将大大提高其投资组合的性能,而下降较低。

For instance, this model maintains a 20% drawdown compared to the 60-90% declines typically seen in Bitcoin's history. This suggests that a well-balanced, data-driven approach can help investors make more informed decisions with reduced downside risk.

例如,与比特币历史记录中常见的60-90%下降相比,该模型保持20%的水位。这表明一种均衡,数据驱动的方法可以帮助投资者做出更明智的决定,并减少下行风险。

To summarize, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator merges the most critical aspects influencing Bitcoin's price action into a single metric for ease of use. It has historically outperformed simple buy-and-hold strategies while mitigating risk, making it a valuable tool for both retail and institutional investors.

总而言之,比特币所有指标都将影响比特币的价格动作的最关键方面合并为单个指标,以易于使用。从历史上看,它在减轻风险的同时,它超过了简单的购买策略,使其成为零售和机构投资者的宝贵工具。

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